Before the season, the Appalachian State Mountaineers heading to face the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers would have sounded like a great Thursday night, possibly one deciding the Sun Belt East. Instead, both teams have three conference losses.
Despite that lack of intrigue, there can still be value found in Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina predictions, with these free college football picks looking at player props before kickoff at 8 ET on Thursday, November 7.
App State vs Coastal Carolina props for Week 11
- Braydon Bennett 2+ TDs (+270 at FanDuel)
- Braydon Bennett Over 65.5 rush yds (-114 at FanDuel)
- Joey Aguilar 3+ passing TDs (+180 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 11-7.
Read full analysis of each pick.
App State vs Coastal Carolina college football player props
Prop bet #1: Braydon Bennett 2+ Touchdowns
In six games this season, veteran Coastal Carolina running back Braydon Bennett has found the end zone multiple times on three different weekends. That rate alone emphasizes the value of this prop.
But look more closely at this matchup.
The Chanticleers run the ball 12.9% more often than the average team would in a given game state, per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com. That reliability is a key part of how Coastal Carolina averages 4.06 points per quality drive, No. 23 in the country in converting scoring opportunities into actual points.
Of Appalachian State’s many defensive woes, an inability to stop teams where it matters most may lead the list. The Mountaineers allow 4.08 points per quality drive, No. 113 in the country. Nearly as worrying, Appalachian State gives up quality scoring opportunities on 46.6% of opposing drives.
Coastal Carolina should have more scoring chances than usual on Thursday night, and those usually end up in Bennett’s hands.
Prop bet #2: Braydon Bennett Over 65.5 rushing yards
First of all, always shop. Look just over at DraftKings, typically a provider of many prop markets. There are no Unders available for Bennett’s rushing yards, a quick indicator that the market may not be fairly priced. And, indeed, the closest thing to this exact prop is 70+ rushing yards juiced at -125.
So, that is both an inflated number and a higher price point.
Second, Bennett has topped this prop in each of his last two games, against two defenses comparable to Appalachian State’s in rushing defense woes. The Mountaineers rank No. 129 in the country in defensive success rate against the rush and No. 118 in expected points added (EPA) per rush against.
Louisiana — against whom Bennett ran for 132 yards on 13 carries three weeks ago — ranks No. 130 and No. 98, respectively. Meanwhile, Troy — 69 yards on 10 carries just five days ago — sits at No. 103 and No. 117.
Prop bet #3: Joey Aguilar 3+ Passing Touchdowns
Appalachian State quarterback Joey Aguilar has produced of late, throwing for 10 touchdowns across the last three games. Expecting him to continue that rate may be ambitious, but this is where the value is in a market with his passing touchdowns Over/Under set at 1.5 with the Over juiced to -200.
One more score than that at the joy of 180 cents is clear value.
Coastal Carolina’s defense is actually better against the pass than against the rush, but that is hardly praise. The Chanticleers’ pass defense is every bit a weakness, one Aguilar should exploit.
The passing game is the better half of Appalachian State’s offense. If this game becomes as high-scoring as expected with a total of 62.5, then the Mountaineers’ half of that equation should be via Aguilar’s arm.
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