Bowling Green will look to win its first bowl game since 2014 when the Falcons take on Arkansas State from Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, Alabama in the 68 Ventures Bowl.
With the Falcons down three of their four best players and the Red Wolves set to be close to full strength, I’m expecting a close battle between the two in my Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green predictions and college football picks for Thursday, December 26.
The action begins at 9:00 p.m. ET, live on ESPN.
Arkansas State vs Bowling Green prediction and best bet
Who will win Arkansas State vs Bowling Green?
This is a fairly even matchup between two teams that have NFL-level pass catchers, consistent quarterbacks, and defensive questions. However, Bowling Green has an X-factor in Harold Fannin Jr., who should be the difference if he sees his normal usage in this matchup.
The Red Wolves have enough offensive firepower to keep this game close, but can they come out victorious? I have my doubts. Fannin is an impossible cover for Power Four players — see his performances against Penn State and Texas A&M — so I think he’ll be capable of taking over against a Sun Belt team. Falcons win 27-23.
My best bet
Arkansas State +7.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Without a doubt, the best player set to play in this game is Harold Fannin Jr. for the Bowling Green Falcons, but it’s fair to wonder just how much he’ll play given the fact he’s viewed as a Top-100 talent in the NFL Draft.
Even if he does play the entirety of the game and gets fed like he has been all season by QB Connor Bazelak, the Falcons are down their three next-best players.
Running back Terion Stewart forced the 15th-most tackles in the nation this year (63), but he’s transferring to Virginia Tech. His best blocker, All-MAC offensive tackle Alex Wollschlaeger, is headed to Kentucky. And the team’s defensive leader, Joseph Sipp Jr., is committed to Kansas.
That’s three massive losses, especially for a team that’s favored by more than a touchdown against a program from a stronger conference. Without Stewart and Wollschlaeger, this Falcons run game — which is 82nd in EPA per rush this season — will take a major hit.
It should help Arkansas State to put more focus into stopping Fannin and the passing attack while allowing star defensive end Bryan Whitehead II and his 14.3% pass rush win rate to pin his ears back.
The other side of this matchup is the more important side, with Arkansas State capable of exposing the Falcons with Sipp out. Sophomore QB Jaylen Raynor has gotten better as the season has gone on, with 10 of his 14 touchdown passes coming over the final six games — he’s been credited with 10 big-time throws during that stretch, too.
With Raynor playing his best ball of the year and wide receiver Corey Rucker being one of the best in the G5, the Red Wolves should be able to challenge this Falcons passing defense. And they might even be able to expose their run defense — it’s 111th in EPA per rush — with Zak Wallace.
Bowling Green simply isn’t eight points better than Arkansas State without Stewart, Wollschlaeger, and Sipp.
Arkansas State vs Bowling Green same-game parlay (SGP)
Arkansas State +7.5
Under 53.5
These two teams combined to put up 51.6 points per game this season, but Bowling Green accounted for more than half of those points. Without Stewart and Wollschlaeger on offense and Fannin potentially having a reduced role for the sake of keeping him healthy for the NFL Draft process, it’s hard to see these two teams going Over this number.
The Falcons have also been one of the better Under teams in college football since the beginning of October. Over Bowling Green’s last eight games, it’s 6-2 betting the Under, and both times they hit the Over, the game total was below 49.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Arkansas State vs Bowling Green odds
Arkansas State vs Bowling Green live odds
Arkansas State vs Bowling Green opening odds
- Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green spread: Bowling Green -6.5
- Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green moneyline: Arkansas State +185, Bowling Green -225
- Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green Over/Under: 49.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Arkansas State vs Bowling Green spread and Over/Under analysis
- Bowling Green opened as a 6.5-point favorite, and the line has since moved another full point in its direction, with the Falcons being offered at -7.5.
- Neither team has been consistent ATS this season, with Bowling Green 6-6 and Arkansas State 5-7.
- The Over/Under opened as low as 49.5 and has steadily risen over the last two weeks, with most books sitting between 52.5 and 53.
- The Red Wolves are 6-6 betting the Over while the Falcons are just 4-8.
Arkansas State vs Bowling Green betting trend to know
Arkansas State has cashed the moneyline in seven of its last 13 games for +1.00 units and a 4% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Arkansas State vs Bowling Green.
Arkansas State vs Bowling Green game info
| Location: | Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL |
| Date: | Thursday, 12-26-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Arkansas State vs Bowling Green latest injuries
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Arkansas State vs Bowling Green weather
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