Armed Forces Bowl: Tulsa vs Mississippi State Picks

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are enjoying a terrific season, going 6-2 and coming off a last-second loss to Cincinnati in the AAC Championship game.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Dec 28, 2020 • 11:27 ET
Tulsa Golden Hurricane Armed Forces Bowl
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane will aim to wrap up a highly successful 2020 season as they face the Mississippi State Bulldogs on New Year's Eve in the Armed Forces Bowl at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas. 

College football betting odds have No. 24 Tulsa installed as a slim 2.5-point favorite with the Over/Under set at 47. 

We break down the college football odds with our free Tulsa vs. Mississippi State picks and predictions for the Armed Forces Bowl on Thursday, December 31, with kickoff at noon ET. 

Armed Forces Bowl: Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview

Weather

It's expected to be an uncharacteristically frigid day in Fort Worth on Thursday with temperatures between 30 and 39 degrees, an 87 percent chance of precipitation, and crossfield winds gusting at 17.5 miles per hour. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key Injuries

Tulsa: Zaven Collins LB (Out), 
Mississippi State: JaVonta Payton WR (Questionable), Kylin Hill RB, Nathan Pickering DT Marcus Murphy DB
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting Trend to Know

The Under is 8-0 in Tulsa's last eight non-conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Tulsa vs. Mississippi State.

 

Against the Spread (ATS) Pick

Let's be honest, the only reason this line is anywhere near this low is that Mississippi State plays in the SEC and Tulsa is a Group of Five team. 

Mississippi State slogged through a brutal campaign where they lost seven of their last nine games. Meanwhile, Tulsa is enjoying a terrific season, going 6-2 and coming off a last-second loss to Cincinnati in the AAC Championship game. 

The Golden Hurricane have one of the top defenses in the country, holding foes to just 4.6 yards per play and 20.8 points per game. Although they'll be without their top defender in Zaven Collins, who decided to opt-out of the bowl game, this is a unit that's more than a one-man show.

And don't let Tulsa's smaller conference fool you into thinking they sharpened their claws against house mice. The Golden Hurricane also limited high-powered offenses like Cincinnati, Central Florida, SMU and Oklahoma State.

Expect them to manhandle a weak Bulldogs offense that ranks outside the Top-100 schools in the country in both total yards and scoring. Back Tulsa to win and cover. 

PREDICTION: Tulsa -2.5 (-110)

Over/Under Pick

Based on our brief descriptions of Mississippi State's weakness and Tulsa's strength above, you may have thought we were leaning towards the Under. And you would be absolutely right. 

Mississippi State has struggled to move the ball all season thanks to a pathetic ground game that ranks dead-last in the country with a barely-believable total of just 36 yards per game. The Bulldogs also rank 115th in the nation when it comes to third-down conversion rate and turned the ball over a whopping 26 times. 

Luckily for the Bulldogs, the Golden Hurricane aren't exactly loaded with firepower themselves, ranking 57th in the country in yards per game and 74th in scoring.

The Under has gone 8-0 in Tulsa's previous eight non-conference games, while also going 7-2 in Mississippi State's previous nine contests overall. With cold and windy weather also expected for Thursday's game we're taking the obvious play here.

PREDICTION: Under 47 (-110)

Armed Forces Bowl: Tulsa vs Mississippi State Betting Card

  • Tulsa -2.5 (-110)
  • Under 47 (-110)
NCAA Parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s Armed Forces Bowl: Tulsa vs. Mississippi State picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?

Use our NCAA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Where Can I Bet on College Football Bowl Games?

You can bet on college football bowl game odds at every online and casino sportsbooks, including NCAA football point spreads, Over/Under totals, derivative bets and even prop plays as well. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on college football odds in your area.

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Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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