Best NCAAF Win Totals Bets for 2023: Tar Heels Get Stuck in the Mud

It’s hard to believe that we are just a few weeks away from the kickoff of the 2023 college football season. And oddsmakers have been busy getting win totals up for every single team in the country.

Win totals can be a good starting point to establish how good a team will be in the upcoming season. But these markets certainly can have some value to the savvy college football bettor. I’ve scoured the college football odds looking for my favorite win total bets heading into this year.

Will USC and Caleb Williams live up to their lofty expectations? Which SEC team could actually improve even though last year’s quarterback is off to the NFL? And you can’t just look at the Power Five. I’ve found a pair of Group of Five teams with electric quarterbacks who are in for big years in my free college football picks and predictions.

Best Over win total bets for 2023

Kentucky Over 6.5 wins

I was very notably not on the Will Levis hype train last season. While Levis had to play behind one of the worst offensive lines in the country, I thought he very clearly underperformed for most of the season, even when he did have time to throw.

Levis is now off to the NFL and luckily for us, it feels like oddsmakers have over-adjusted to that.

Out goes Levis and in comes former NC State quarterback Devin Leary, who threw for over 6,800 yards with the Wolfpack. Here’s my hot take — Leary will be a better quarterback at Kentucky this season than Levis was last year.

Another plus for Kentucky is the return of offensive coordinator Liam Coen after a brief stint in the NFL. Coen and head coach Mark Stoops immediately went out to improve the offensive line, bringing in transfers and moving guys around. This should be a much-improved unit in 2023. Leary will also have a skilled group of pass catchers to throw to.

And as long as Stoops is the head coach at Kentucky, the defense should be one of the more solid units in the conference.

The Wildcats’ schedule also lines up well. They should be 4-0 heading into their rivalry matchup vs. Florida, a game they will likely be favored in.

Then matchups vs. Missouri, at Mississippi State, at South Carolina, and at Louisville are all winnable. The Oct. 28 meeting vs. Tennessee could also fall in their favor if Volunteers quarterback Joe Milton III doesn’t work out as planned. Plus, Kentucky always performs better in the underdog role.

Pick: Kentucky Over 6.5 wins (-170 at bet365)

UTSA Over 7.5 wins

I did a fun article a few weeks back when I said I didn’t hate the odds for the UTSA Roadrunners to run the table in 2023 and go undefeated. So, you know they had to make my list for best regular season win total bets. Particularly when that number is sitting at 7.5.

UTSA is coming off back-to-back conference championships where they have gone 23-5 overall. Now, the Roadrunners will try to make it a third straight conference title, just in a different conference this time as UTSA moves to the AAC. But let me tell you, I don’t think they’ll be any less successful.

For starters, I am all in on quarterback Frank Harris this season. Harris completed nearly 70% of his passes for 4,063 yards with 32 touchdowns and nine interceptions while adding another 602 yards and nine scores on the ground.

But it's not just Harris that makes UTSA dangerous. The team returns 10 players to its offense from a season ago, including all five starters on what should be a physical offensive line. The defense shouldn’t be too far behind, with the pass rush being a real strength.

UTSA will be thrown into the frying pan to start the season with a trip to Houston, but with the game being listed as a pick’em, it should show you how respected the Roadrunners are this season. A Sept. 23 trip to Tennessee is likely a loss, but if anyone can keep up with the Vols, it’s the Roadrunners.

Trips to FAU and Tulane won’t be easy but are winnable. And then UTSA should be favored in its eight other games. Double-digit wins and a third straight conference championship win are definitely on the table for the Roadrunners in 2023.

Pick: UTSA Over 7.5 wins (-148 at FanDuel)

Ohio Over 7.5 wins

What would a college football preview article be without a little MAC-tion? The Ohio Bobcats looked poised to win their first MAC title since 1968 last season. But then quarterback Kurtis Rourke got hurt and was unable to play in the conference title game, which Ohio predictably lost to Toledo.

But Rourke is back and the Bobcats’ goal is straightforward. Win the MAC. And with Rourke under center, they have a great chance to end that title drought.

Now, if you generally focus on the Power 5 when it comes to college football, you’re missing out by not watching Rourke do his thing. The reigning MAC Offensive Player of the Year threw for 3,257 yards with 25 touchdowns compared to just four interceptions while adding another four scores on the ground.

And Rourke isn’t the only one who’s back. Ohio returns nine starters on offense, which includes a strong offensive line. But it’s a defense that really turned around in the second half of the season (i.e. in conference play) that can give you confidence in backing the Bobcats.

Ohio opens the season as an underdog at San Diego State, but if Rourke can get them out to a lead in that game, it will be interesting to see if the Aztecs can keep up. The Bobcats should then beat FCS Long Island before a rematch with FAU, whom they beat last year.

They close non-conference play by squaring off vs. Iowa State, who just lost their QB due to a gambling scandal. Then the Bobcats start conference play, where they went 7-1, with the lone loss coming to Kent State in overtime.

Rourke and the Bobcats will have one of the most dynamic offenses in the country, (even if you don’t know about it), which will lead them Over their win total this season.

Pick: Ohio Over 7.5 wins (-115 at DraftKings)

Best Under win total bets for 2023

USC Under 10 wins

If this line included College Football Playoff wins, I might look elsewhere. But this is regular season wins, and that leaves very little room for error for the USC Trojans in 2023.

Let’s get this out of the way. The USC offense will be electric, and one of the best in the country. Quarterback Caleb Williams will try to become just the second player in college football history to win the Heisman Trophy odds in back-to-back seasons, and he is the betting favorite in the Heisman odds.

While there are a bunch of new faces, Williams should have plenty of good weapons at his disposal while playing behind a strong offensive line. So, why the Under?

Well. Let’s start with Alex Grinch’s defense. The Trojans were awful on that side of the ball. USC ranked 119th in the country in opponent yards per play when facing FBS opponents. The only thing that saved them was their 29 turnovers, and those vary from year to year. The Trojans tried to address the holes on that side of the ball in the transfer portal, but I’m not sure those moves were enough.

Then there is the schedule. Now, the first half of the Trojans' schedule is Charmin soft and should enable them to start the season 6-0. But then things get much tougher in the back half. 

The Trojans play at Notre Dame, vs. Utah, vs. Washington, and at Oregon over their final six games. I would call all four of those toss-ups.

And finally, what will the motivation of Williams be if he is banged up late in the season knowing he is likely to be the No. 1 pick in the next NFL Draft?

There are just too many variables with this Trojans team with too little room for error.

Pick: USC Under 10 wins (-120 at DraftKings)

UNC Under 8.5 wins

This looks like a win total that has been inflated by the hype around North Carolina Tar Heels star quarterback Drake Maye. I love Maye, and he will undoubtedly have a strong season for the Tar Heels. Heck, I wouldn’t be shocked if after the season and through the offseason workouts that he gets consideration to be the first player selected in next April’s NFL Draft.

But I’m not sure Maye’s arm will be able to carry this North Carolina team to nine wins or more this season. That’s because he’s going to need to put up 40 burgers on a regular basis considering how bad the Tar Heels' defense was last season.

Basically, they couldn’t stop anyone from doing anything. North Carolina ranked 114th in the country in opponent yards per play when facing FBS opponents last season. And pressuring the quarterback was as rare as a solar eclipse for the Tar Heels. Only Colorado had a lower sack rate than UNC did last season. All that equated to allowing 31.3 points per game vs. FBS teams.

So, while eight starters return, I’m not sure that’s a good thing. And I’m not sure the additions in the transfer portal are enough to make a tangible difference.

Then there is the schedule. Staring with non-conference meetings with South Carolina, Appalachian State, and Minnesota is no cakewalk. Then I count just four probable wins for UNC in the remainder of the season.

Trips to Pittsburgh, Clemson, and rival NC State will be tough, while Miami and Duke should be improved teams in 2023. The path to nine wins just looks very difficult for the Tar Heels this season.

Pick: UNC Under 8.5 wins (-150 at FanDuel)

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