Miami (Ohio) vs Ball State Predictions, Picks, and Best Bets: RedHawks Spread Their Wings

To evenly matched teams hook up in Muncie on Tuesday, but with the weather calling for rain and wind, Rob Paul is calling for an easy RedHawks victory. Find out why he believes the run game will be the difference maker in this contest.

Rob Paul - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rob Paul • Betting Analyst
Nov 5, 2024 • 17:42 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Keyon Mozee Miami (Ohio) RedHawks NCAAF
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As Miami (Ohio) looks to be the first repeat champ in the MAC in over a decade, the RedHawks will need to bring their best to Muncie, Indiana for tonight's MACtion matchup with Ball State.

To do that, the RedHawks will need to continue playing like they have the last few weeks, and my Miami (Ohio) vs. Ball State predictions and college football picks for Tuesday, November 5 expect them to in the rainy conditions.

Miami (Ohio) vs Ball State prediction and best bet

My best bet
Miami (Ohio) -12.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

One of the biggest reasons MACtion is beloved by college football fans is because of the impact the weather has on the games in November in the Midwest. This matchup has a chance to really come through in that department.

When the game kicks off at 8 p.m. ET in Muncie on Tuesday night, the Weather Network is forecasting a 70% chance of precipitation with 15 mph winds. I would have taken Miami (Ohio) to cover in this game regardless, but a windy and wet game favors the RedHawks even more.

Despite a slow start to the season, as of late Miami (Ohio) looks far more like the team that opened the year as the favorite to win the conference. The RedHawks have covered in three straight games and outscored their opponents 114 to 41.

They were the favorite in all three games, and that includes blowing out Central Michigan 46-7 as a 10.5-point favorite. While I don’t expect this game to be that much of a shellacking, Ball State is one of the worst programs in the country.

Mike Neu’s team has just two FBS wins, and one of those came against a Kent State team that’s 0-8 thus far. The Cardinals are 126th out of 134 teams in SP+ and their defense is 131st. 

That opens the door for Miami (Ohio)’s run game to go crazy in the ugly weather. Running back Keyon Mozee has been a breakout star with four 100-plus-yard rushing performances in his last five games.

Mozee should be able to expose a Ball State defense that’s 123rd in EPA per rush on defense. And RedHawks’ QB Brett Gabbert is a steady hand behind center who can be trusted to move the ball even in non-ideal weather - he’s thrown eight touchdowns and zero interceptions during Miami (Ohio)’s win streak.

And I wouldn’t worry about the Cardinals keeping up. Their offense ranks outside of the top 110 in both EPA per dropback and rush while the RedHawks have one of the best defenses in the Group of Five - it’s 51st in SP+.

I think Miami (Ohio) takes this one somewhere in the range of 27-10.

Miami (Ohio) vs Ball State same-game parlay (SGP)

Miami (Ohio) -11.5

Under 48.5

Keyon Mozee anytime TD

The two reasons I like this Under are because I just don’t see Ball State being able to score all that much against a Miami (Ohio) defense that’s top 65 in EPA per dropback and rush, and because of the weather.

So even with the Cardinals’ defense being brutal, the rain should slow Miami (Ohio)’s scoring to some extent in this one. With that said, Mozee is still in perfect position to find the end zone.

While Mozee has just two touchdowns in his five games as a key contributor, he’s proven to be a big play back. He’s forced 22 missed tackles, had 12 runs of 10-plus yards, and rushed for 329 yards after contact in his five games. That explosiveness will help him score against Ball State.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Miami (Ohio) vs Ball State odds

Miami (Ohio) vs Ball State live odds

Miami (Ohio) vs Ball State opening odds

  • Miami (Ohio) vs. Ball State spread: Ball State +10.5
  • Miami (Ohio) vs. Ball State moneyline: Miami (Ohio) -450, Ball State +350
  • Miami (Ohio) vs. Ball State Over/Under: 49.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Miami (Ohio) vs Ball State spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Miami (Ohio) opened between a 10.5 and 13-point favorite with most books now offering the RedHawks between -12 and -12.5.
  • Miami (Ohio) is just 4-4 ATS, but it’s covered in three straight, while Ball State is 5-3 and has covered in two of its last three.
  • The Over/Under opened as high as 50.5, but has since come down to between 48.5 and 49 at most sportsbooks.
  • The RedHawks are 4-4 betting the Over and have it the Over in four straight while the Cardinals are among the best over teams in the country at 7-1.

Miami (Ohio) vs Ball State betting trend to know

Miami (Ohio) has hit the moneyline in eight of its last 13 games (+4.15 Units / 12% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Miami (Ohio) vs Ball State.

Miami (Ohio) vs Ball State game info

Location: Scheumann Stadium, Muncie, IN
Date: Tuesday, 11-5, 2024
Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Miami (Ohio) vs Ball State latest injuries

Miami (Ohio) vs Ball State weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Not intended for use in MA.
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Rob Paul - Contributor at Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Rob has contributed to various sports media outlets since 2018, including FanSided and Pro Football Network, but Covers is the first site he’s worked at that is dedicated solely to the sports betting industry. Before working in sports media full-time, he spent five years as a local community journalist after attending Durham College for journalism and Wilfrid Laurier University for history.

He’s long been involved in sports in one way or another, previously hosting a podcast focused on the NFL draft and college football. Working as a freelance podcast producer, Rob has appeared on numerous sports podcasts and college football shows. He's also been a guest on SportsTalk Mississippi, discussing the NFL draft.

One of his favorite things about the sports betting industry is the way it helps shine a light on sports that get less coverage. He’s a diehard player prop bettor who always recommends using stats and analytics to identify the best players to back before placing a bet.

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