Alabama will travel to LSU for a night game in Death Valley on Saturday night in a significant tilt for college football playoff implications.
I'm dubious about either team's ability to make the playoffs, which is why my Alabama vs. LSU predictions are grabbing the points with the hosts.
Read on as I break down my early lean with free college football picks for November 9.
Alabama vs LSU predictions
Early spread lean
LSU +3 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
I like LSU here. I don't hold either of these teams in too high of regard, but the Tigers have a good matchup, and the home advantage cannot be ignored.
You likely know the story about LSU in home games at night, but the 115-8 record coming into this season cannot be ignored. Passing up an opportunity to back the Tigers with a field goal at home is tough. I'm certainly leaning that way.
Alabama QB Jalen Milroe just snapped a streak of four straight games with an interception last week against Missouri. Furthermore, this season, he's had multiple "turnover-worthy plays" in each road game. That's significant, especially with the LSU defense averaging nearly one interception per game over its last three games.
LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has struggled, entering this game off of three interceptions against Texas A&M. However, that came against one of the better secondary he'll see. This Alabama defense has yet to show the capacity to create the type of havoc that LSU has this season. They've certainly been more sound overall, but surprisingly, LSU has succeeded more in making the big play.
The lean here is certainly not the strongest, and I feel better about the total. However, with these teams being so evenly matched, I'm leaning towards taking the points. I'll bet it if we get over a field goal.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 58.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Before we can even fully capture an analysis of this handicap, we must understand the circumstances around this game, and one takes center stage with the weather headed towards Louisiana.
The timing of these things can always be unpredictable, significantly this early in the week, but Tropical Storm Rafael could dramatically impact this game. Whether that impact could be wind, rain, or both is uncertain, but "the cone uncertainty" currently places Baton Rouge in its path. It has affected the total, too. It's moved about a point towards the Under since opening; I'm inclined to agree. Alabama's defense should be able to do an excellent job of controlling this game.
The story with LSU is a wildly talented receiving core. As it usually always is. Kyren Lacy is as good as any wideout in the county, while the rest of the pass catchers supplement is impressive. However, if the weather impacts this game as it should, their vertical speed could be significantly affected and diminish the impact they'll have. Beyond that, though, the Bama defense has been relatively good this season against the pass. The first and second halves against Georgia illustrate the helter-skelter nature of things, but it's still a secondary that ranks 22 in EPA per dropback nationally. That's good enough for me to give them a vote of confidence here.
On the other hand, LSU's defense is much maligned but probably not as bad as it's been talked about this season. It's slightly above average across the board, but slightly above average is not good enough in the most talented conference in the sport.
The thing I like about LSU's defense here is the havoc it can cause. It ranks 39th in such categories nationally and has put on film the ability to make opposing teams' pass throwers uncomfortable. What's caused the most issues in Alabama this season is limiting havoc. It's 116th in the country in that regard, just barely ahead of South Carolina and Oklahoma. Exotic looks and pressures have caused them a host of issues. Before not throwing one last weekend in a blowout win against Missouri, QB Jalen Milroe had back-to-back games with interceptions. It could cough it up here, but even if it does not, the LSU's ability to cause havoc should stop some drives.
Alabama vs LSU live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
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