College Football Player Props & Best Bets: Johnson Showcases His Mobility in Sunflower Showdown

Prop bet #1: Daniel Jackson 61+ receiving yards

Best odds: -120 at DraftKings

It might surprise some folks to learn that the Minnesota Golden Gophers rank 28th in pass rate (56%). Typically a team that keeps things on the ground at any cost, P.J. Fleck’s squad has made a concerted effort to let quarterback Max Brosmer sling the rock. 

Brosmer’s favorite pass catcher has been Daniel Jackson, who has double the targets (61) of any other Minnesota wide receiver. The books have set Jackson’s receiving yardage prop at 61 for Week 9, and I’m buying the Over given the volume of targets he receives. 

This also qualifies as a favorable matchup against a Maryland Terrapins defense that has struggled to stop teams in the air, ranking 92nd in EPA per pass, 74th in passing success rate, and 80th in passing explosiveness. The Terps have had a lot of attrition in the secondary over the last two years and haven’t been able to replace the lost production with an equal caliber of player. 

It doesn't help that they haven’t rushed the passer with much success, checking in at 88th in front-seven havoc and 98th in sacks per game (1.5). Brosmer should have time in the pocket when he drops back, and the Minnesota passing game should expect an above-average performance given the matchup. 

Jackson averaged 63.9 receiving yards per game a year ago and is at 64.4 yards per game this year. Considering the passing attack forecasts for an above-average game, that would be good news for his Over. 

He was banged up to start the year and notably was a game-time decision for the opener against North Carolina. If we take out the first two games of the year when Jackson saw season-lows in targets due to his health, the fifth-year senior averages 71.2 receiving yards. 

That number is more in line with what to expect from Jackson going forward and I’ll buy his Over at a short number. 

Prop bet #2: Avery Johnson Over 40.5 rushing yards

Best odds: -114 at FanDuel

It’s time for the Sunflower Showdown in Week 9 as Kansas Jayhawks face the No. 16 Kansas State Wildcats. One player I’m keying in on is Wildcats quarterback Avery Johnson, who is a dangerous dual threat who can beat you in the air or on the ground. 

It’s been a wobbly start at points this year as the first-year starter had some hiccups, but overall this offense has been moving and grooving. Kansas State is averaging 6.9 yards per play offensively while ranking ninth in EPA per play and 16th in success rate. 

They should have success moving the chains against a Kansas defense that checks in at 81st in EPA per play and 93rd in success rate. The Jayhawks have been especially prone to opposing ground games, ranking 110th in EPA per rush and 110th in rushing success rate. 

The issues stem from a pushover defensive front (117th in line yards, 127th in stuff rate, 126th in power success rate) that should be overmatched by Kansas State’s effective offensive line (ninth in line yards, 12th in front-seven havoc). It’d be very surprising if the Wildcats don’t run with impunity in this matchup.

Avery’s rushing yardage prop is set at just 40.5, so I’m buying the Over. He’s eclipsed this number in three of his last five games, and there isn’t as much of a threat of him losing yardage on sacks as the Jayhawks rank 89th in PFF’s pass-rushing metric. 

Johnson is an elite rushing threat for a quarterback and his legs are used when his team needs it. That wasn’t the case a week ago in a blowout 45-18 win over West Virginia, but he’ll likely be counted on more in Saturday's rivalry.

Prop bet #3: Evan Stewart 57+ receiving yards

Best odds: -125 at DraftKings

There’s a ranked-on-ranked matchup in Eugene this weekend as the No. 20 Illinois Fighting Illini face the No. 1 Oregon Ducks in Big Ten play. 

Wide receiver Evan Stewart has come alive lately for the Ducks, catching 11 passes for 245 yards and a touchdown in his last two games. The Texas A&M transfer was assumed to be an integral part of the offense going into the season, and after a slow start, it looks like he’s fully ramped up as a dangerous weapon. 

We know that the former 5-star has talent, and that was evident when he caught 53 passes for 649 yards and two scores as a true freshman in 2022. It’s been a tumultuous year and a half since then, however, as his numbers dipped slightly a year ago (38 receptions for 514 yards and four scores) and preceded by a slow start this year. 

Well, all that seems to be in the past, and Stewart is locked into a full-time role for one of the best offenses in the country. The Ducks rank ninth in success rate and should hold a substantial advantage over an Illinois defense that checks in at 118th. 

The Illini are nothing special in the secondary (102nd in passing success rate) and don’t create a ton of pressure up front (81st in front-seven havoc, 129th in line yards). Like Stewart, Dillon Gabriel should have time in the pocket to operate and find his receivers.