BYU vs SMU NCAAF Picks & Predictions: Defending Their Ground

The Southern Methodist Mustangs rebounded from what was nearly a disastrous Week 0 result against Nevada by putting a hurting on FCS Houston Christian. 

But can the Ponies put on a good performance against a Power Four team as they welcome the BYU Cougars to play under the lights tonight in Dallas?

My BYU vs. SMU predictions see the Mustangs' defense answering the call but not the offense, giving Under bettors a path to victory. Here are my college football picks for this Week 2 matchup on September 6.

Not only that, but Douglas Farmer has a trio of BYU vs. SMU player props to help fill out your betting card.

BYU vs SMU prediction

My best bet
Under 56.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

My analysis

The Southern Methodist Mustangs needed to outscore the Nevada Wolf Pack 16-0 to pull out a 29-24 comeback in Week 0 as 27-point favorites.

SMU did take care of business against Houston Christian last week, winning 59-7 while covering the 50.5-point spread. But there is not much you can take away from that game, as the Ponies just did what they were supposed to do.

So, the question is, how will they perform against a Power Four team? Now, the BYU Cougars aren't exactly the Alabama Crimson Tide, but it’s a step up in competition for the Mustangs.

The Cougars also did their job in their season opener against FCS Southern Illinois, winning 41-13 and covering as 16.5-point chalk. That said, BYU is expected to be a bottom-tier team in the Big 12 this season.

The Cougars' offense stalled in their first season as a Power Four team, putting up just 23.1 points per game. While this unit should be improved this season, the one thing that I still feel confident about in the Ponies is their defense.

While SMU didn’t play the toughest schedule on the way to the 2023 AAC title, the defense made it all the easier for them. This is a unit that ranked seventh in the country in defensive success rate and fifth in sack rate a season ago and is returning nearly all of its impact players.

And despite the near defeat to Nevada, you can’t really blame the defense. The Ponies held the Wolf Pack to 15 of 28 passing for 150 yards with only 3.4 yards per carry on the ground, and this defensive front seven should have its way with a BYU offensive line that had to replace the entire left side.

It’s SMU’s offense that is the concern at this point. Quarterbacks Preston Stone and Kevin Jennings have split time in each of the first two games and it sounds like running back Jaylan Knighton is nursing an injury.

But the Mustangs have depth at running back with LJ Johnson and Brashard Smith, and with the strength of the BYU defense arguably being its secondary, don’t be surprised if SMU leans on the run once again in this one. 

That has me betting that this game falls below the total.

BYU vs SMU same-game parlay (SGP)

Under 56.5

BYU team total Under 21.5

Brashard Smith anytime TD

+310 at BetMGM

As you can probably tell, I’m high on the SMU defense. I’m not so high on the BYU offense. Jake Retzlaff earned the starting quarterback job this summer over Baylor/USF transfer Gerry Bohanon. And while Retzlaff had a good season debut, that was against Southern Illinois.

So, I’m doubling down on the full-game Under by taking BYU to stay Under it’s team total of 21.5. That’s a number the Cougars were held below four times in their final seven games last season. And once again, I’m not sure how Retzlaff and that BYU offensive line will hold up against this SMU defensive front.

Now, if you told me entering the season that Knight or Johnson wouldn’t be the Ponies' leading rusher through two games, I would have called you crazy. But here we are.

Smith has been Rhett Lashley’s go-to guy out of the backfield so far this season. Smith spent the last three seasons at Miami, primarily as a wide receiver. But he’s proving to be an effective back for the Mustangs, leading the team with 21 carries for 178 yards and three scores over the first two games of the season. 

I like Smith to find the end zone for the third straight game.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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BYU vs SMU odds

BYU vs SMU live odds

BYU vs SMU opening odds

• Spread: BYU +11.5 | SMU -11.5
• Moneyline: BYU +375 | SMU -500
• Over/Under: Over 55 | Under 55

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

BYU vs SMU spread and Over/Under analysis

• This line opened with SMU as 11.5-point home favorites. BYU saw some early action with the line dropping to 10, but since then the spread has rebounded and is back to the opening number.
• SMU went 7-3 ATS last season as a double-digit favorite but nearly lost their first game this year outright as 27-point chalk. BYU went 4-5 ATS as an underdog last season.
• The total opened at 55 and has been bet up slightly to 56.5 as of Wednesday evening.
• SMU could be an interesting team to watch this season in terms of Unders. The Mustangs' defense is strong but combine questions at quarterback with tougher competition in the ACC, and scoring might be a little harder this year.

BYU vs SMU betting trend to know

SMU has hit the 1H Under in 10 of their last 13 games for +6.75 Units and a 47% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for BYU vs SMU.

BYU vs SMU game info

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