This AL West series concludes on September 15, with the Seattle Mariners hosting the Texas Rangers at T-Mobile Park.
My Rangers vs. Mariners predictions are bullish on the home favorites, primarily due to the pitching matchup. Read on for my MLB picks!
Rangers vs Mariners prediction
My best bet
Mariners -1.5 (+145 at bet365)
My analysis
Southpaw Andrew Heaney takes the mound for the Texas Rangers this afternoon, and he should be a good fade candidate. Heaney is 5-13 through 29 appearances on the mound with a 3.84 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.
While those aren’t the worst numbers in the world, his underlying metrics suggest regression is looming. He possesses a 4.12 xERA and ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
This expected regression is likely to come to fruition against the Seattle Mariners, a team Heaney is 1-5 against over the past 10 meetings with a 5.44 ERA. Meanwhile, Seattle hands the ball to RHP George Kirby.
Kirby outranks Heaney in ERA, WHIP, xERA, average exit velocity, walk rate and hard-hit rate. The pitching advantage doesn’t end there, as the M's bullpen outranks Texas’ pen in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
Finally, Seattle’s pitching staff is likely to receive a solid amount of run support as this current Mariners lineup boasts a .250 BA, .479 SLG and .352 wOBA through 161 combined career plate appearances against Heaney.
Rangers vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Mariners -1.5
George Kirby Over 6.6 strikeouts
J.P. Crawford Over 0.5 hits
I'm going to back Kirby in the prop market, as he ranks in the top half of the league in both chase and strikeout rates. This success is likely to continue against Texas, whose current lineup possesses a 23.5% strikeout rate through 115 combined plate appearances against Kirby.
Since I'm simultaneously backing Kirby and the Mariners to win by two or more runs, then a highly correlated outcome would be for members of Seattle to record some hits. Enter J.P. Crawford, who boasts a .334 xBA through 26 plate appearances against Heaney.
Crawford has also recorded eight hits over his past 10 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rangers vs Mariners odds
Rangers vs Mariners live odds
Rangers vs Mariners opening odds
- Moneyline: Texas +135 | Seattle -160
- Run line: Texas +1.5 (-160) | Seattle -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-125) | Under 7 (+105)
Rangers vs Mariners moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Seattle opened as a -160 favorite and remains at that price at the time of writing.
- I project this line to widen due to all the aforementioned variables.
- The total opened at seven and remains at that number at the time of writing.
- Both lineups have struggled this year, but I find it hard to believe this total goes any lower than seven, considering the Heaney vs. Kirby matchup
Rangers vs Mariners trend
Seattle has won by two or more runs in three of Kirby’s past five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Mariners.
Rangers vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-15-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Southwest |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Andrew Heaney (5-13, 3.84 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | George Kirby (11-11, 3.77 ERA) |
Rangers vs Mariners latest injuries
Rangers vs Mariners weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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