No, Mike Norvell is not in any danger of being fired. Yes, Billy Napier does have that worry.
Perhaps anyone wondering if Florida State head coach Mike Norvell is “cooked” is simply leaning into the memes and jargon of 2024, but they're overlooking how quickly quips turn into others’ assumptions. So let’s be clear: In the wake of Nick Saban’s retirement, Norvell signed a 10-year deal worth more than $84 million.
Three losses to open 2024 will thus not cost Norvell his job.
Napier has no such assurance, not after opening this season 0-2 against FBS opponents, with the two losses reeking of locker room ambivalence. Florida trailed Texas A&M 33-7 in Saturday’s third quarter, and two Gators’ touchdowns did not inspire confidence.
Firing Napier would cost Florida about $28 million, but repeated SEC blowouts in a third-straight losing season will have their own cost.
Watching the Gators mail it in against Miami to open the season inspired betting live against Florida once it fell behind A&M. That paid off. There may be another such opportunity in three weeks against Central Florida on Oct. 5. File away that plan and keep an eye on the college football odds.
I said it two weeks ago.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 14, 2024
I said it Tuesday.
I said it this morning.
It's time to tune into Texas A&M for a pre-planned live betting chance, to @_JaMo_86's and Florida's ire. pic.twitter.com/UPxSWBxCBG
College football Week 3 things you should not overreact to
There is at least one other soon-to-be-fired coach to fade.
Coming into the season, a notebook included a list of five teams to fade via their preseason win total Unders because their coach may be fired midseason: Arkansas, Ball State, Baylor, Louisiana Tech and Temple.
Four of those have effectively lived up to reasonable expectations through the first quarter of the season. No rash judgements need to be made, even if a disappointing season-end remains the likelihood.
But Temple and Stan Drayton... there may not be a moment to believe in them. That locker room must know the pain that is coming.
Covering the 17-point spread against Coastal Carolina may have cost yours truly some money, but do not look at that as a new rock turned over by the Owls, pun only somewhat intended. Look at it as an exception proving a rule.
In the previous 26 games with Drayon as head coach, Temple had a -40 turnover margin. It won against the spread despite a -2 margin on Saturday. The rule is you lose when you continue to turn over the ball like that. The exception was covering for a change.
Douglas's advice: Keep doubting Temple. Each loss brings Drayton’s firing only closer. Each loss lessens the locker room’s verve. Take Utah State as a favorite next weekend up to -13.
Lean into Boston College’s Red Bandanna Game, but not too much...
A few headlines this week will suggest this is an ideal moment to bet on Boston College, despite the fact the Eagles have gone just 4-6 outright and 5-5 against the spread in the 10 years of the Red Bandanna Game.
It is nonetheless an occasion worth recognizing all week. The Red Bandanna Game remembers Welles Crowther, a 9/11 hero.
Welles Crowther was a former Boston College lacrosse player whose trademark was a red bandana.
— ESPN (@espn) September 11, 2024
On September 11, 2001, he led people to safety after terrorists struck the World Trade Center.
This is his story. pic.twitter.com/BDS0DboZsG
Douglas's advice: Crowther should be remembered every year, and there may be genuine value in Boston College if this line opens with the Eagles favored by less than a touchdown, but do not bet on Boston College solely because its matchup with Michigan State is the Red Bandanna Game.
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College football Week 3 things you definitely should react to
Doubt Wisconsin’s offense, and with it, the whole Badgers’ season.
Luke Fickell brought offensive coordinator Phil Longo to Madison when Fickell first arrived last winter. It was an odd fit right out of the gates. Longo runs a fast-paced offense, dependent on putting the ball in the air and dual-threat running backs. It has often been criticized for stressing its own defense due to fast possessions, even when working successfully.
That does not quite vibe with the traditional Badgers approach, but if it works, no one would care.
If not now, when Phil Longo?
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 14, 2024
The Old Style has always said, if you want to coach offense at Wisconsin, you need a Ron Dayne in the backfield.
Fail to produce against a suspect Alabama offense and this Badgers' offensive approach may start to hear a lotta criticism. pic.twitter.com/Ry7sxttCuy
Wisconsin averaged just 23.5 points per game in 2023, finishing the season with the No. 86 offense in ESPN.com’s SP+ ratings.
Against a susceptible Alabama defense this weekend, the Badgers gained only 290 total yards and averaged 4.5 yards per pass attempt. Converting merely six of 14 late downs is not a recipe for success.
Even in the first two weeks of the season, against clearly overmatched opponents, Wisconsin scored just 28 and 27 points. Longo’s offense is not working, and the criticism of it will grow, with or without quarterback Tyler Van Dyke.
Douglas's advice: Doubt Wisconsin against all worthwhile defenses until further notice. Remember this now so as not to be convinced otherwise if the Badgers fare well at USC in two weeks and then against Purdue. The final seven games of Wisconsin’s schedule will all be against worthwhile defenses and could cost Longo his job. Hello Badgers’ team total Unders from Oct. 12 onward.
Doubt Utah’s offense if you doubt Cam Rising will play.
Sure, Utah scored 38 points on Saturday at Utah State with seventh-year quarterback Cam Rising never intending to play after injuring his hand a week ago against Baylor. Perhaps the difference between these shorthanded Utes and last season’s is the return of veteran tight end Brant Kuithe, who caught three passes for 68 yards against the Aggies.
But more likely, Utah just enjoyed facing one of the absolute worst defenses in the country. Oklahoma State lacks an elite defense, but it's far more competent than Utah State’s. If Rising misses another game, the Utes will struggle.
Frustratingly, Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham will probably invoke gamesmanship this week, insisting he is unsure of Rising’s status.
Douglas' advice: For all its flaws, Twitter is your best source for constant updates from beat writers. Find a few from Utah and keep an eye on their language as they relay Whittingham’s updates. If you believe Rising is in, believe in Utah. If you doubt he will play, consider backing the Cowboys on a short moneyline.
Not intended for use in MA.
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