BYU vs TCU Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Offenses Stay Grounded in Fort Worth

A year removed from a 13-win season and a National Championship appearance, Sonny Dykes’ TCU Horned Frogs (3-3) are simply looking to stay above .500 in the second half of the season. 

After back-to-back losses, TCU will try to get back on track as it hosts the BYU Cougars (4-1). Kalani Sitake’s squad has impressed thus far, but it’s unclear how they will perform in the grinder that will be Big 12 play considering this is their first year in the conference. 

The Cougars return from a bye week bring a struggling offense to town and will face a backup quarterback for the Horned Frogs after starter Chandler Morris injured his ACL in last week’s loss to the Iowa State Cyclones. 

Looking at the college football odds, TCU is -5.5 at home while the total is set at 53. 

Check out my handicap for the total in my best bet section below, and read on for my free college football picks and predictions for BYU vs. TCU on Saturday, October 14. 

BYU vs TCU best odds

BYU vs TCU picks and predictions

After shocking the world with 13 wins and a run to the 2022 National Championship game, the TCU Horned Frogs have fallen back down to Earth in 2023. That was to be expected as they were one of the most veteran teams in the country last year and lost a lot of key talent to the NFL. It’s a near-impossible task for most programs to fill that void year-to-year. 

TCU was embarrassed from the get-go in a shocking loss to Deion “Coach Prime” Sanders’ Colorado Buffaloes in Week 1. The Horned Frogs got back on track by winning three games that they were supposed to, but have now dropped back-to-back contests against the West Virginia Mountaineers and — most recently and startlingly — to the Iowa State Cyclones. 

If they want to right the ship, they’ll have to do so sans starting quarterback Chandler Morris. He left last week’s game and has been announced out for 4-6 weeks with an MCL injury, paving the way for Josh Hoover to earn his first collegiate start. The redshirt freshman will hope for better success this week after completing 11 of 19 attempts for 119 yards with one touchdown and one interception in relief duty against the Cyclones. He has more turnovers (three) than touchdowns (two) on the year. 

BYU enters this contest well-rested after a bye week and actually hasn’t played since September 29, as its latest game was a Friday matchup against the Cincinnati Bearcats, which it won 35-27. There’s a chance that impact players return to action as head coach Kalani Sitake stated that offensive lineman Weylin Lapuaho, receiver Kody Epps, running back Aidan Robbins, and linebacker Ben Bywater all have a chance of returning to the field in Week 7. 

Sitake brought over Jay Hill from Weber State to be his new defensive coordinator and it’s turned around a unit that was among the nation’s worst a season ago. The Cougars check in at 65th in EPA per play and success rate, and 18th in explosiveness. While that may not sound terrific, it’s much better than last year, when they finished 124th in success rate and allowed 408.1 total yards per game. 

Offensively, the Cougars haven’t been able to generate much of anything, ranking 105th in EPA per play and 128th in success rate. The rushing attack has been particularly dreadful, ranking dead last (133rd) in rushing success rate and 127th in EPA per rush while mustering just 62.8 rushing yards per game on 2.3 yards per carry. The offensive line was supposed to be a strong suit, but that unit ranks just 123rd in line yards and will need to be vastly improved following the bye. 

TCU has been much better since the stunning opener against Colorado. It’s allowed no more than 5.6 yards per play in any game since and Joe Gillespie is a well-respected coordinator, so this unit should be up to the challenge against a struggling BYU offense. 

When TCU has the ball, expect a heavy dose of running back Emani Bailey. He ranks fourth in the country both in attempts (121) and rushing yards (690) and should be relied on heavily with a turnover-prone backup quarterback under center. Expect Sonny Dykes to lean on his offensive line, which has a huge advantage in the numbers. TCU ranks 12th in both offensive line yards and stuff rate, while BYU checks in at 111th in defensive line yards and 99th in stuff rate. 

That game plan would keep the clock and the chains moving, and there’s reason for pessimism for both offenses, so give me the Under. 

My best bet: Under 53 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

BYU vs TCU same-game parlay

Under 52.5

BYU +5.5

+246 at DraftKings

This is a two-leg SGP centered around my best bet on the Under. A low-scoring game could be a positive factor for the underdog, so I’ll play BYU plus the points as the second leg. 

It’s difficult to have confidence in either team at current, so I’d rather be on the side catching points. I’m not sure if TCU has played an impressive game this season other than against the Houston Cougars (a 36-13 victory), and that team stinks out loud, so I’m not giving the Horned Frogs much credence. 

The Frogs are +3 in turnover differential, whereas the Cougars are -4, and it’s difficult to rely on that to continue in this spot with a backup quarterback who fumbled the ball on his first touch of the game against the Cyclones and then was intercepted on his second pass attempt. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

BYU vs TCU spread and Over/Under analysis

This line opened at TCU -5 but has jumped up a half-point and even a full point at some spots, as -6 is showing in some locations. The total has also moved a bit, jumping from 52 at open to 53 at current. Be sure to shop around using our college football odds tool to ensure that you grab the best price available before placing your wager. 

I can see why TCU has received a bit of love in the market. The numbers favor Dykes’ squad as they check in at 39th in EPA per play on offense and 62nd in EPA per play on defense. It hasn’t been terrific on either side of the ball but it hasn’t been terrible, either. That gives them a forecasted advantage on both offense and defense over the Cougars, who rank 105th in EPA per play on offense and 64th in EPA per play on defense. 

For all that the numbers say, I think everything else is working in BYU’s favor, and that offsets the efficiency metrics in my opinion at least. 

BYU is coming off a bye week and should be the healthiest it has been all year with Bywater having a chance to regain his starting middle linebacker spot, Epps potentially returning as this team’s top pass catcher, and Lapuaho perhaps making his first appearance this season as a starting left guard. The Cougars have a very talented offensive line that has underperformed this season, and there’s nowhere to go but up after reteaching opportunities only afforded during a bye week. 

Factor in that TCU is just 2-4 ATS this season as a vastly overrated team in the market that will now be playing with a first-time starter at quarterback, and I know which side I lean toward. 

BYU vs TCU betting trend to know

TCU is 0-5 O/U in its last five home games. Find more college football betting trends for BYU vs TCU.

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