It’s down to the final game. The Ohio State Buckeyes (13-2) and Notre Dame Fighting Irish (14-1) meet at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Monday night with the National Championship on the line.
My Ohio State vs. Notre Dame same-game parlay looks to the team's playmakers to produce and in a big way.
Find out why in my free college football picks for Monday, January 20.
Ohio State vs Notre Dame SGP - January 20
Mitchell Evans Over 29.5 receiving yards
Jeremiyah Love 45+ rushing yards
Jeremiyah Love anytime tD
Jeremiah Smith Over 64.5 Receiving Yards
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish will find it difficult to move the ball against the Ohio State Buckeyes’ vaunted defense. They’re the top-ranked scoring defense (12.2 ppg) ahead of only their counterpart Notre Dame (14.3 ppg) and have held every opponent not named Oregon to 17 points or fewer.
The Buckeyes have an elite defensive line headlined by J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer and also featuring Tyleik Williams and Ty Hamilton. Notre Dame’s banged-up offensive line is in an interesting situation, shuffling around pieced due to injury. For example, Charles Jagusah will earn the start at left tackle for the first time in 387 days.
How will offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock draw up successful offensive plays against a defense that ranks third in EPA per play? Expect the short passing game to be a key component in order to get looks in the short-to-intermediate areas against Ohio State’s zone-heavy defense.
Tight end Mitchell Evans slowly worked his way back from a torn ACL a year ago, failing to eclipse 30 receiving yards in any of ND’s first nine games. He’s since done so in three of his last six games while averaging 35.3 yards per game.
Evans is one of the best tight ends in college football and he’s been a key piece of this offense since returning to form. He racked up 422 receiving yards in seven games (60.3 per game) a year ago before the injury, a number more reflective of his talent. Denbrock’s offense isn’t heavily reliant on wide receivers for production, and Ohio State’s disruptive front seven should force ND to rely on players like Evans on shallow routes.
Another way that the Irish will move the ball is through superstar sophomore running back Jeremiyah Love. The books have priced his props way down for this difficult matchup, but the numbers are so low that I’m buying the dip.
Love has posted an excellent 92.4 rushing grade (per PFF) while averaging a superb 4.47 yards after contact per attempt. He’s averaging 74.8 rushing yards per game and is a home run threat any time he touches the ball.
While he’s been held below 50 rushing yards in each of his last two games, he’s been battling through a significant knee injury (MCL) and should be healthier now that he’s had extra rest before the National Championship. The Georgia game is the only time all season he’s been held out of the end zone, and any Irish offensive success likely hinges on Love.
Now for Ohio State. It’s well known that ND defensive coordinator Al Golden plays man coverage more than just about any team in the country.
Who does that benefit on the Buckeyes? Jeremiah Smith — a matchup nightmare for any team brave enough to play man against him (ahem, Oregon). He’s eclipsed 64.5 receiving yards in 11 of his team’s 15 games and will be especially potent any time he’s lined up against Christian Gray on the outside.
Teams like USC and Georgia relentlessly targetted Gray in coverage, and Ohio State will do the same thing anytime he’s on an island with its talented wideouts. While Golden still likely mixes in zone coverages, the Irish got this far by being hyper-aggressive and trusting their guys to make plays, so they won’t throw out the script overnight.
