Central Michigan vs Oklahoma State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Chippewas Grind Out a Cover

The reigning Big 12 champion Oklahoma State Cowboys look to follow up a 12-win campaign as they begin the 2022 season with a home game against the Central Michigan Chippewas.

The Chippewas went 9-4 a year ago with their first bowl win in a decade, so this team is no pushover despite hailing from the MAC.

Both had successful seasons a year ago and are looking for another one in 2022. Will the Cowboys handle business as the betting market expects?

Check out our college football picks and predictions between the Central Michigan Chippewas and Oklahoma State Cowboys on Thursday, September 1 to find out. 

Central Michigan vs Oklahoma State odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

At BetRivers, this line opened Oklahoma State -20.5 back on May 27. Currently, the line is -21 at nearly every location. The total opened at 58 but has been bet up to 60.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

Central Michigan vs Oklahoma State predictions

• Prediction: Central Michigan +21 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 60 (-110)
• Best bet: Under 60 (-110)

Predictions made on 9/30/2022 at 7:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Central Michigan vs Oklahoma State game info

• Location: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK
• Date: Thursday, September 1, 2022
• Kick-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX Sports 1

Central Michigan vs Oklahoma State betting preview

Weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Key injuries

Central Michigan: LaQuan Johnson (Ques), Jacques Bristol (Ques).
Oklahoma State: None.
Find our latest College football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 7-1-1 in the Cowboys' last nine games in September. Find more NCAA betting trends for Central Michigan vs. Oklahoma State.

Central Michigan vs Oklahoma State picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

The last time these two schools played each other, Central Michigan pulled off a huge upset win after a controversial ending that included a last-second Hail Mary. Oklahoma State will be anxious to put those bad memories to bed with a commanding win on Saturday, and that’s what the betting market anticipates. Will the Cowboys cover the nearly three-touchdown spread?

Quarterback Spencer Sanders is back for his fourth season as the starter, but he loses top running back Jaylen Warren and top receiver Tay Martin. Finding replacements for those players won’t be easy. Dominic Richardson figures to lead a committee in the backfield and the Pokes always reload at wide receiver, where Jaden Bray and Brennan Presley are the names to know.

OSU was terrific defensively a year ago, allowing only 297.9 yards per game (fifth nationally) on 4.6 yards per play. The defense figures to take a step back after losing coordinator Jim Knowles to Ohio State, and only four starters return on that side of the ball. After losing so much NFL talent on defense in addition to the coordinator, while losing the top two playmakers on offense, it’s natural to expect regression in 2022.

Central Michigan found its answer at quarterback last year in Daniel Richardson. The team finished 9-4 overall and 7-2 in games that Richardson started. He finished with 8.3 yards per attempt, but it’s concerning that he loses his top two receivers from a year ago, including NFL talent Kalil Pimpleton. 

CMU figures to be a run-centric team in 2022 behind the nation’s leading returner in Lew Nichols. Sweet Lew exploded for 2,186 total yards and 18 touchdowns in 2021 as one of the nation’s best running backs. A year ago, I would’ve been skeptical about this offense’s chances against Oklahoma State’s nation’s fifth-best run defense (87.6 rushing yards per game allowed on 2.7 yards per carry), but the defense will look much different in 2022. CMU returns all five offensive line starters from the bowl game plus an impact player who was out for the year in 2021, so I fancy their chances in this one.

The Chippewas are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. I’ll take that trend to continue as CMU keeps things within three touchdowns.  

Prediction: Central Michigan +21 (-110 at BetMGM)

Over/Under analysis

This total has been on the move, as it opened at 58 in some locations back in May but currently resides at 60. 

Both teams will have more experience offensively than defensively. CMU returns seven starters offensively (including the quarterback, star running back, and offensive line) while only four return defensively to a unit that ranks 100th in returning production. The Chips weren’t bad defensively but there are questions up front this year,

OSU also returns seven starters on offense and four starters on defense. I’m not saying that the defense will be bad, but it’d be shocking if they didn’t see regression after being one of the nation’s top defenses and losing so much. In addition to the loss of Knowles — who is very highly thought of around the country — they rank just 128th in returning production on defense. 

I think these numbers help us predict game flow more than the final score. CMU is weaker along the defensive front, so I expect the Pokes to keep the ball on the ground plenty. They might have success running the ball, but that will also keep the clock ticking.

CMU will be a run-oriented team under new offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay. While Sweet Lew ran wild over MAC defenses a year ago, it’ll likely be a different story against an Oklahoma State team that takes great pride in its defense. The Chippewas lose their top two receivers heading into this season and a firework display passing the ball would come as a great surprise.

I expect a lot of runs in this game, which will keep the clock moving. Give me the Under.

Prediction: Under 60 (-110 at bet365)

Best bet

Betting Unders early in the season is one of my favorite angles. Bettors are hungry for football after such a long layoff, and it’s no surprise when money floods in on Overs as fans want to see points.

I don’t see this one playing out as a shootout. Both offenses should be good this year, but neither will have the identity of wanting to turn games into a shootout. CMU’s primary deficiencies on defense are along the front seven, while the offense’s ground-heavy attack will find more resistance than it’s used to against the Pokes.

Add in that both squads lose a lot in the receiving game from a year ago, and I find it likely that this one is played at a slow pace. There’s still a perception out there that Mike Gundy operates his offense at a breakneck tempo, but that wasn’t this team’s identity at all last year — the Cowboys ranked just 107th in plays per game.

The Under is 19-9-1 in the Cowboys’ last 29 games overall and 7-1-1 in their last nine September games. As for CMU, the Under is 7-2 in its last nine road games.

Pick: Under 60 (-110 at bet365)

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