Oregon vs Michigan Predictions, Picks, and Best Bets: Ducks Dominate Defending Champs

At one point, this may have appeared to be a marquee matchup on the schedule. Less so, now, considering how Michigan can't get anything going on offense. Oregon is better in every way and should win handily.

Douglas Farmer - Betting Analyst at Covers
Douglas Farmer • Betting Analyst
Nov 2, 2024 • 12:34 ET • 4 min read

NCAAF

Match starts: 1 hrs
MICH
37 %
ORE
63 %
EXPERT PICK - PROP
Dillon Gabriel anytime TD (+200) Dillon Gabriel anytime TD (+200)
Read Analysis
Lowe Oregon Ducks NCAA College Football
Photo By - Imagn Images. Pictured: Justius Lowe

The Oregon Ducks' march to the Big Ten title game continues today with what should be a one-sided victory over the Michigan Wolverines. The defending national champs were always expected to take a step back but the fall from grace has been more drastic than anticipated.

My Oregon vs. Michigan predictions entirely back the Ducks, arguably the Big Ten's best team, as these college football picks consider a frustrating spread before a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff at Michigan Stadium on Saturday, November 2 live on CBS.

Oregon vs Michigan prediction and best bet

My best bet
Oregon -14.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
Offensively, the Michigan Wolverines don't do anything well. Even when it comes to the ground game, the Wolverines don't do well enough to justify how often they run.

Michigan rushes 8.0% more often than the average team in a given game state, per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com. Yet, the Wolverines rank No. 29 in the country in rushing success rate and No. 33 in expected points added (EPA) per rush. To lean on the run so often but not have a genuinely strong run game is a failing strategy.

Let’s put that in simpler terms: Michigan ranks No. 61 in the country at 4.67 yards per rush. Middling teams do not usually defer to their middling trait so often.

That speaks to how atrocious the passing half of the Wolverines offense is.

The Oregon Ducks are usually defined by their offense, but their defense is a Top-20 unit by any metric, holding up particularly well against explosive rushes. Without those, Michigan may struggle to score much at all. There is a reason the Wolverines rank No. 126 in the country in quality possession rate at 29.8%. Depending on successful run after successful run after successful run fails when just one attempt falls short.

The Ducks offense has yet to scuffle this season, at least against FBS competition. Against the best defenses it has faced — Ohio State, ranking No. 1 in current SP+ numbers, Illinois (No. 42), and Michigan State (No. 33) — Oregon has averaged 33.67 points. Michigan’s No. 10-rated defense should not stop the Ducks enough to cost this cover.

Especially not with Wolverines cornerback Will Johnson possibly sidelined or, at best, not 100%. Oregon’s fleet of receivers may miss out on the type of challenge competitors embrace, but they should be able to run more freely, which is a worthwhile consolation prize.

Michigan’s defense is still stout, but not stout enough to make up for this debacle of a Wolverines offense, and against one of the five best teams in the country, that defense will keep the score close for only so long.

Oregon vs Michigan same-game parlay (SGP)

Oregon -14.5

Michigan Team Total Under 13.5

Dillon Gabriel anytime touchdown

The more traditional team total number would be Under 14.5, widely available but with some juice on the Under. Look specifically at Michigan, though. The Wolverines turn less than a third of their drives into quality possessions. If they fail to convert one into a touchdown — scoring a modest 3.92 points per quality possession — then it would take three worthwhile drives to crack even this team total.

The alternative team total crossing a key number might seem an aggressive choice, but it provides underrated value.

As for Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel reaching the end zone, he has done so in five of eight games. The three exceptions: The season-opening snoozer against FCS-level Idaho, the cruise-control victory at UCLA, and the Friday-night laugher at Purdue. When competition is at least meager, Gabriel often shoulders some of the offensive scoring workload.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Oregon vs Michigan odds

Oregon vs Michigan live odds

Oregon vs Michigan opening odds

  • Oregon vs. Michigan spread: Michigan +14.5
  • Oregon vs. Michigan moneyline: Oregon -750, Michigan +525
  • Oregon vs. Michigan Over/Under: 45.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Oregon vs Michigan spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Oregon spent the summer as a mere 3- or 3-point favorite, a number that some sportsbooks pushed to -4 in mid-June.
  • When this market genuinely reopened on Sunday, the Ducks were posted as 15-point favorites before falling to -14.5. As the week has progressed, the board has seen book-by-book tick upward to -15 again, some reaching -15.5.
  • The few books to post a summertime total posted this a full touchdown higher than where it reopened on Sunday: 52.5 in June compared to 45.5 now.
  • Both that spread move and total adjustment emphasize how bad Michigan’s offense has been this season.

Oregon vs Michigan betting trend to know

Michigan is 2-6 against the spread this season, falling short of oddsmakers’ expectations by an average of 6.1 points even when including the pair of ATS successes. Find more college football betting trends for Oregon vs Michigan.

Oregon vs Michigan game info

Location: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
Date: Saturday, 11-2-2024
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS

Oregon vs Michigan latest injuries

Oregon vs Michigan weather

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Douglas Farmer
Betting Analyst

Douglas Farmer spends his days thinking about college football and his nights thinking about the NBA. His betting habits and coverage follow that same pattern. He covered Notre Dame football for various outlets from 2008 to 2024, most notably spending eight seasons as NBC Sports’ beat writer on the Irish. That was also when his gambling focus took off. Knowing there were veteran beat writers with three decades more experience than he had, Douglas found his niche by best recognizing Notre Dame’s standing in each year’s national landscape, a complex tapestry most easily understood and remembered via betting odds.

In 2021, that interest created a freelance opportunity with Covers, a role that eventually led to Douglas joining the company full-time in 2023. In the fall, Douglas will place five or six dozen bets each week, a disproportionate amount via BetRivers because the operator tends to have lines slightly different than the rest of the market. The same can be said of Circa Sports’ futures markets.

While Douglas is an avid NBA fan and covers the league throughout the year, the vast majority of his bets are on college football, because that is the biggest key to sports betting: Know what you do not know.

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