Texas Tech vs Iowa State prediction and best bet
My best bet
Texas Tech +13.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The Big 12 is the conference of chaos. Pretty much any team can win in any given matchup — the margins for error are slim as there are rarely any clear favorites, and no opponent can go overlooked given the parity.
That’s why when I see a team as a 13.5-point favorite in this conference, I’ll do a double-take and dive in deeper to see if the line is warranted. Allow me to walk you through what that inspection revealed for the Iowa State Cyclones and Texas Tech Red Raiders.
The Cyclones have outplayed opponents, gaining a +1.4 yards per play differential. The thing is, they’ve also benefitted from being +9 in turnover differential, which may or may not be sustainable going forward.
The Red Raiders have turned the ball over 12 times and are +2 in turnover differential. The defense needs a ton of work (115th in EPA per play, 107th in success rate), but the offense has been moving and grooving (30th in EPA per play, 27th in success rate).
Quarterback Behren Morton was forced out of last week’s game before halftime, but he practiced this week and seems on track to play. If he isn’t ready, true freshman Will Hammond looks like a budding star and provides a very capable backup.
I’m hesitant to buy into the Iowa State hype in part because the Cyclones haven’t been very impressive from a success rate perspective. It’s a stat I hold in high value as it essentially shows whether or not you can move the ball consistently on offense and hold other teams from doing so when on defense.
Iowa State ranks just 82nd in success rate on offense and 63rd on defense. Quarterback Rocco Becht completed just 43.5% of his 46 pass attempts against a bad UCF pass defense last time out, and the defense surrendered 7.1 yards per play to a team that could barely complete a forward pass.
There are enough warning signs that have me backing off the sizable favorite, especially in a conference of chaos where I want to be on the underdog more often than not.
Texas Tech vs Iowa State same-game parlay (SGP)
Texas Tech +12.5
Over 56.5
Jayden Higgins anytime touchdown
Caleb Douglas anytime touchdown
For everything I said about Texas Tech’s offense being able to move the ball, an equal and opposite amount needs to be said about its miserable defense. The Red Raiders are allowing a whopping 6.6 yards per play overall and have surrendered 491.8 yards per game in their last four contests.
The Cyclones should score, especially given they have one of the best wide receiver duos in the country with Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. Higgins has caught six touchdown passes and has the second-highest PFF receiving grade in the Big 12 behind only superstar Travis Hunter.
Tech has surrendered multiple receiving scores in three of its last four matchups. The Red Raiders check in at 104th in EPA per pass and 107th in passing success rate while generating little pressure (126th in front-seven havoc, 82nd in PFF’s pass-rush metric), so Becht should have time to pick them apart.
Caleb Douglas has been a monster in Tech’s last three games, leading the team in targets (30), receptions (22), receiving yards (359), and touchdowns (3). He seems poised for a very strong end to the season, regardless of who's under center.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Texas Tech vs Iowa State odds
Texas Tech vs Iowa State live odds
Texas Tech vs Iowa State opening odds
- Texas Tech vs. Iowa State spread: Iowa State -14.5
- Texas Tech vs. Iowa State moneyline: Texas Tech +450, Iowa State -600
- Texas Tech vs. Iowa State Over/Under: 57.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Texas Tech vs Iowa State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Both teams have been profitable against the spread lately. Texas Tech is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games, while Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last six.
- Texas Tech is 13-8 in its previous 22 meetings with Iowa State and has won each of the last two games in the series.
- Both teams have trended toward the Over. Texas Tech is 3-1 O/U in its last four, while Iowa State is 6-3 O/U in its last nine.
Texas Tech vs Iowa State betting trend to know
Iowa State is 1-3 ATS in its last four home games against Big 12 opponents. Find more college football betting trends for Texas Tech vs Iowa State.
Texas Tech vs Iowa State game info
| Location: | Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-2, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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