While the Houston Cougars are fresh off two wins in their last three Big 12 games, Willie Fritz’s program has yet to play a team as loaded as the Kansas State Wildcats.
With the Wildcats playing their best football of the season, my Kansas State vs. Houston predictions expect their punishing rushing attack to take advantage of the Cougars’ defense.
Read all about it in my college football picks for Saturday, November 2. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET from TDECU Stadium in Houston, with the game airing on FOX.
Kansas State vs Houston prediction and best bet
My best bet
Kansas State -13.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Houston has racked up wins against Utah and TCU in its last three games, proof Fritz has this team headed in the right direction. But there’s also a clear talent gap when the Cougars play more competent Big 12 programs.
While those two wins were nice, they’ve been outscored 96-14 in their three other conference games against Kansas, Iowa State, and Cincinnati. In two of those games, they were shut out, failing to cover in all three.
Well, Kansas State is on a similar level to the Cyclones as one of the top teams in the Big 12. The Wildcats are the highest-ranked team in the conference in SP+ (15th), and that’s in large part due to their offense.
Kansas State is eighth in the country in EPA per rush this season and ninth in rushing yards per game (223.3). The combo of QB Avery Johnson and running backs DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards is lethal and should pose a massive problem for defensive coordinator Shiel Wood.
Houston is just 77th in EPA per rush on defense and allows an average of 203 rushing yards per game in Big 12 losses. And this run game is more explosive than that of the Jayhawks, Cyclones, and Bearcats, with 63 runs of 10+ yards this season, per PFF.
All Kansas State really needs to do to cover is find the end zone a few times, because this Houston offense is atrocious. It’s 102nd in SP+ and averaging the fewest yards per game (300.4) and points per game in the Big 12 (14.1).
The Cougars have one of the worst offenses in the country and rank just 98th in EPA per dropback and 107th in EPA per rush. That’s not going to cut it against a Wildcats defense Top 25 on defense in both of those categories.
K-State is allowing the fewest rushing yards per game in the conference (96.8) and only 21.4 points per game. This isn’t a game Chris Kileman’s team will get caught playing with its food.
I expect the Wildcats to win in the range of 35-17.
Kansas State vs Houston same-game parlay (SGP)
Kansas State -12.5
Over 45.5
DJ Giddens Over 104.5 rshing yards
This game total is low because Houston’s offense has been so sporadic and the team is just 1-7 betting the Over. However, Kansas State’s offense is the best the Cougars have seen, and it should be able to do the bulk of the scoring for this Over to hit.
Against Kansas, the total was set at 45 before the Jayhawks beat Houston 42-14. I think this will be a similar outcome, with the Wildcats’ offense being as explosive as it is with Johnson at QB.
Kansas State has hit the Over in three of its last four while averaging 36.7 points per game during that stretch, and this is its lowest game total of the season.
A big part of Kansas State’s high-powered offense as of late has been Giddens. Over the last four games, he’s averaging 132 rushing yards per game. He’s sixth in the country in rushing yards after contact (657) and 10th in missed tackles forced (47), which should lead to plenty of chunk runs against this defense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Kansas State vs Houston odds
Kansas State vs Houston live odds
Kansas State vs Houston opening odds
- Kansas State vs. Houston spread: Houston +12.5
- Kansas State vs. Houston moneyline: Kansas State -550, Houston +400
- Kansas State vs. Houston Over/Under: 45.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Kansas State vs Houston spread and Over/Under analysis
- Kansas State opened as a 12.5-point favorite, with the line moving to Wildcats -13.5 at most sportsbooks.
- The Wildcats are just 3-5 ATS this season, while Houston is 4-4.
- The Over/Under opened between 45.5 and 46.5 with most books seeing little movement.
- Kansas State is 4-4 betting the Over this season, but 3-1 in their last four, but Houston is just 1-7.
Kansas State vs Houston betting trend to know
Kansas State has hit the game total Over in eight of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Kansas State vs Houston.
Kansas State vs Houston game info
| Location: | TDECU Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-2, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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