Anyone complaining about the blowouts in the first round of the 12-team College Football Playoff is simply exposing how little attention they pay to college football. They are openly admitting they have never watched the sport they are complaining about. It is quite a personality trait, to be angry at something you have not cared for in the first place.
In the 10 years of the four-team College Football Playoff, 13 of 20 semifinal games featured double-digit margins of victory. Nine of the 20 were won by 20+ points.
If Indiana did not belong in South Bend on Friday night, did No. 2 Michigan not belong in the Orange Bowl in 2022, losing 34-11? If SMU did not belong in Penn State on Saturday afternoon, did No. 2 Clemson not belong in the Sugar Bowl in 2021, losing 49-28?
If Clemson looked overmatched this Saturday at Austin, how about No. 3 Ohio State in the 2017 Fiesta Bowl, falling 31-0? If Tennessee was embarrassed late Saturday night in Columbus, how would you describe No. 3 Florida State in the 2015 Rose Bowl, falling 59-20?
Anyone complaining about the blowouts in the first round of the 12-team College Football Playoff is too focused on the trees to see the coming forest...
CFP Opening Round things you should overreact to
Do overreact to how great this is about to be. The next week of hype may undersell the football we are about to enjoy.
Not to overlook the next two Playoff games — more will be spilled on them below — but the Rose Bowl-Sugar Bowl combination of Ohio State vs. Oregon and Notre Dame vs. Georgia on New Year’s Day may be one of the best Playoff setups we've ever had.
The gripes about Playof blowouts overlook the years we have been treated. In the 10 years of the four-team Playoff, three of them had multiple games within two possessions. Last year was the only time two such games fell on the same day.
No. 1 Michigan beat No. 4 Alabama in overtime, 27-20, and then No. 2 Washington slipped by No. 3 Texas, 37-31. This New Year’s Day could be that kind of caliber.
Ohio State looks primed for revenge for its 1-point loss at Oregon back in mid-October; Notre Dame looks every bit as physical as Georgia. Sportsbooks obviously agree, both games lined within 1.5 points.
So on Jan. 2, we should wake up with odds of something akin to ...
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) December 22, 2024
Ohio State or Oregon I'm guessing ~+300
Georgia or Notre Dame +325
Texas +325
Penn State +400
And that is an amazing path we are headed down.
Tired: First-round blowouts
Wired: oh that Final Four is gonna be lit
Douglas' advice: Plan a light New Year’s Eve. Do not incur a hangover on New Year’s Day. Sure, you could nurse that on the couch and be just fine, but wouldn’t you rather be leaning forward during that doubleheader? I am already planning my New Year’s Eve BBQ; I would much rather be too full than too pained on New Year’s Day.
Do overreact to Ohio State’s 42-17 throttling of Tennessee to end the first round. The Buckeyes again look the part.
College football rivalries defy explanation. For years, the joke around the Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State rivalry was “Anything can happen in Bedlam. Oklahoma could win by a lot, or Oklahoma could win by a little.”
Maybe Ohio State vs. Michigan has veered into that psychological territory. Anything can happen, Michigan can win by a lot, or Michigan can win by a little.
While watching the Buckeyes’ first-round victory with a scarlet-and-gray fan, her complaint was, “Why couldn’t they do this against Michigan?” As is the case in all of society, a dramatic postseason win could not wipe away the sour taste of losing to a neighbor.
The thought was offered that a full year of angst about beating the Wolverines only led the Buckeyes to be too into their own heads in late November. “But these guys are all new. Why do they get freaked out by a rivalry?” she replied with more disdain than expected.
Maybe because it is all any Ohio State fan mentioned from the first moment Will Howard and Caleb Downs showed up on campus? If you spend nine months telling an 18- to 23-year-old that only one thing matters in his entire year, that will become his reality.
The Buckeyes clearly played the Wolverines too tense, too tight, too terrified of losing. As happens when fearing an end, that end becomes a reality.
What we saw Saturday night was the Ohio State we had seen 11 times this season, the Ohio State we have expected all of 2024. Ignore that Michigan loss. The psychological intangible of it made it too skewed to be predictive.
Douglas' advice: First of all, be excited for the Rose Bowl. Second of all, Ohio State is going to close as at least a 2.5-point favorite. Bet the Buckeyes at -1.5 while you can. Early this week, the line is going to move. Ohio State has been power-rated higher than Oregon all season despite that 1-point loss at Autzen. Seeing the Buckeyes back in this form underscored that.
Best available title odds following the first-round:
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) December 22, 2024
Texas +340 at DraftKings
Ohio State +400 at BetRivers
Oregon +430 at FanDuel
Penn State +500 FD
Georgia +550 FD
Notre Dame +600 FD
Arizona State +7000 DK
Boise State +8000 at bet365
Do overreact to Texas finding a rushing attack. That was not entirely new for the Longhorns, but winning because of their offense was unexpected.
While this is certainly not a vintage Clemson defense like we saw peak in 2018, the Tigers still rank No. 24 in expected points added (EPA) per rush against, according to cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com. Clemson has maintained a defensive quality even in these relatively down years.
In the SEC title game, Texas rushed for 31 yards on 28 carries, an average of 1.11 yards per attempt. Against that same Georgia team in mid-October, the Longhorns managed 29 yards on 27 carries, an average of 1.07 yards per attempt.
Those were the nadirs in a season that featured 3.4 yards per rush or fewer in four of Texas’s last seven games. The Longhorns’ title hopes have been long pinned on their defense, understandably so given a stellar defensive line that can dictate long swaths of games.
And then Texas had two 100-yard rushers against Clemson, Jaydon Blue averaging 10.4 yards per carry and Quintrevion Wisner averaging 7.3, part of gaining 292 yards on 48 carries.
The Longhorns’ pass defense did not look stellar, and that would be a distinct worry against either Ohio State or Oregon, but the Ducks have also shown a struggle stopping the run. Texas could be a legitimate title contender beyond its preferable Playoff path.
Douglas' advice: As long as this line hangs below two touchdowns, there is value on Texas. Its defensive line should stand up to Arizona State star running back Cam Skattebo, but as soon as this gets to -14, the value may be negligible.
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CFP Opening Round things you should not overreact to
Do not overreact to Penn State’s 38-10 rout of SMU. That was a decisive win, but not a definitive statement.
The trouble with final scores is how often they are dictated by game state. As soon as Penn State returned two interceptions for touchdowns in the first 17 minutes against the Mustangs, it was clear SMU would never be able to contend.
The Nittany Lions could then turn their game plan into an aggressive defense paired with a conservative offense. With Penn State’s overall talent advantage, combining that game plan with a gifted two-score lead turned this into a rout. Penn State was always going to win, but convince yourself the truer score here was 24-3.
The worry about applying that game moving forward is that SMU was too compromised to genuinely try running the ball, and Penn State’s rush defense is the aspect that needs to be evaluated before the Playoff quarterfinal against Boise State on New Year’s Eve.
The Nittany Lions entered bowl season ranking just No. 37 in defensive rushing success rate. Broncos star running back Ashton Jeanty will be quite happy to plow forward four and five yards at a time while Penn State keeps him too hemmed in to break a long run. He will not mind that at all. And the Nittany Lions are vulnerable to that reality.
The first-round rout did not give us any better idea about improvement in that key regard.
Douglas' advice: If you can find Boise State at +11, that could be a profitable piece of fireworks for you on New Year’s Eve. Doubt Jeanty at your own peril. And if believing in the Broncos, then the Over 52.5 coincides, as well.
Those odds movements:
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) December 22, 2024
Now | Late last week | After bracket reveal
🟢Texas +340 | +360 | +450
🟢Ohio State +400 | +500 | +550
🔴Oregon +430 | +360 | +380
🟢Penn State +500 | +625 | +800
🔴Georgia +550 | +500 | +380
🟢Notre Dame +600 | +800 | +1200 https://t.co/PyhZA3bqoa
Do not overreact to Indiana’s two late scores against Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish were already thinking about Georgia.
Nobody at Notre Dame was around when Georgia beat the Irish in 2017 and 2019, a home-and-home series featuring two dramatic, one-score games. There is no payback angle to hype here, but everyone in college football knows Georgia remains the standard.
When the Irish were up 27-3 with 4:50 left on Friday night, Notre Dame Stadium breathed easy for the first time in 2024. Remember, the first Irish home game was that humbling 16-14 loss to Northern Illinois. Since then, a Playoff moment like this was doubted.
Only when Riley Leonard reached the end zone to secure that 27-3 lead could the Notre Dame faithful actually relax and celebrate for the first time this season. The Irish players joined them. Even defensive coordinator Al Golden unwound a bit.
And then Indiana scored two touchdowns in the final two minutes, glossing up the scoreboard for the 27-17 final. Remove those two drives and 126 yards, and the Hoosiers gained 146 yards on 40 plays on their first eight drives, discounting a meaningless one-play drive before halftime.
Four drives lasted five plays or fewer. Three scoring opportunities turned into three points. Those are the genuine stats, far more so than the final score of 27-17. Notre Dame did not even give up a scripted-drive success to the Hoosiers like Ohio State did last month.
Douglas' advice: It may be difficult to believe in Notre Dame beating Georgia, understandably so. So that +1.5 may be a bold suggestion. If the Irish do win, their rushing attack would likely have produced points. So, one avenue to ponder if leaning toward the Irish would be an Over 44.5 rather than a Notre Dame +2.5.
What is even more difficult to believe in is the Bulldogs scoring with backup quarterback Gunner Stockton. The Georgia team total should be available at about 21.5. No matter which side you're leaning toward, that Under should be strongly considered.
This Notre Dame defense is underappreciated, and Indiana’s garbage-time flurry helped keep it that way.
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