Miami and Duke meet in an ACC matchup as the Hurricanes continue their quest for an undefeated season.
The Blue Devils have been a quietly strong team this season with five straight ATS covers, and my Duke vs. Miami predictions expect them to make it six covers against the Canes.
Read on for my college football picks for Saturday, November 2.
Duke vs Miami prediction and best bet
My best bet
Duke +20.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The question that must be asked about this game is whether Duke can score, at least some. If the Blue Devils can, they're a live underdog. The problem, however, is Duke's offense has struggled much of the season and has averaged just 26 points per game. That may not be enough, even though I expect this defense to have a solid day.
With all that in mind, this spread is too high, irrespective of what this Duke offense does. I projected a spread of 17 points here, and we're getting over a field goal of value.
You could make a case this is the best defense Miami has faced all season. Entering this matchup, here is where the Duke defense finds itself:
- Seventh in EPA per dropback
- Eighth in EPA per rush
- 14th in early down EPA per play
- Fifth in HAVOC
Those last two are particularly important and the centerfold of this handicap. Let's talk about the havoc part first.
Although Cam Ward is a Heisman frontrunner, he's yet to practice good ball security this season. He's thrown three picks in four conference games, got extremely lucky not to throw a fifth against Louisville, and, in addition, had a very dubious fumble overturned. I suspect he could have some of those turnover issues here.
Ward has played another opponent in the Top 25 of havoc this season: Virginia Tech. He was probably at his worst of the season in that game, with multiple picks and a very narrow win.
The second part is the early down success rate aspect. Miami's offense has been so prolific this season because it has done a tremendous job of staying on schedule in early downs. That's why it ranks in the Top 10 of that metric. Duke has been one of the best teams in the country at keeping teams off schedule. What happens if it can negate this?
The Blue Devils can win this game. They'll be in front of a sleepy crowd in Florida because of a noon game, and it's already a place that doesn't command much of a home-field advantage anyway.
The Hurricanes have played with fire for around a month, and those things tend to burn you. I certainly don't hate sprinkling the moneyline here, but beyond that, this 20-point spread is far too high.
Duke vs Miami same-game parlay (SGP)
Duke +20.5
Miami team total Under 33.5
Maalik Murphy anytime touchdown
No team has cracked 30 points against Duke this season, and even though this Miami offense is one of the best in the country, it won't do it either.
Murphy doesn't have a rushing touchdown on the season, nor has he seen many designed runs called for him. That said, he's a relatively mobile quarterback.
Miami has had two issues all season: Stopping running quarterbacks in the red zone and stopping good rushing attacks anywhere else on the field. It wouldn't be a shock to see his number called if Duke finds itself in a short goal-distance situation
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Duke vs Miami odds
Duke vs Miami live odds
Duke vs Miami opening odds
- Duke vs. Miami spread: Miami -20.5
- Duke vs. Miami moneyline: Duke +900, Miami -1,600
- Duke vs. Miami Over/Under: 55.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Duke vs Miami spread and Over/Under analysis
- As of late, Duke has been a great ATS team, covering five straight times.
- Miami has been a polar opposite. The Canes keep winning, but they've only gotten one cover in their last four games.
- Miami has been a fantastic Over team. The total has gone in that direction in eight of the last nine games it's played.
- This has been an even matchup over the past decade, with Miami holding a slight 6-4 advantage in the head-to-head meetings.
Duke vs Miami betting trend to know
Miami has hit the game total Over in nine of their last 13 games (+5.70 Units / 40% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Duke vs Miami.
Duke vs Miami game info
| Location: | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-2, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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