Florida vs Georgia Prediction and Picks: Offenses Won't Explode Early

Even though it isn’t official anymore, The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is still one of the best rivalry game names out there. Yes, it’s time for the Florida Gators and Georgia Bulldogs to battle in Jacksonville again.

We haven’t seen the Bulldogs since their beatdown of Texas and now they have their eyes set on the SEC title game, but might they be overlooking the Gators as three-score underdogs?

My Florida vs. Georgia predictions have broken down the best college football picks for this storied rivalry.

Florida vs Georgia prediction and best bet

My best bet
First half Under 26.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
It was a month ago when Alabama came out and punched the Georgia Bulldogs in the mouth, jumping out to a 28-0 lead in that matchup.  And though Georgia lost that game, it appears its season changed at halftime. 

The Bulldogs enter this game winners of three straight and in the driver's seat when it comes to going got Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game, thanks in part to their 30-15 dismantling of then No. 1-ranked Texas in Austin two weeks ago.

However, the Dawgs would do well not to overlook the rival Florida Gators in this matchup. Billy Napier's team was left for dead after a 1-2 start, which included humbling losses to Miami and Texas A&M. 

And even if Napier is still on borrowed time, Florida has undoubtedly played better since that loss to the Aggies. The Gators have won three of their last four games — going 4-0 ATS in the process — with the lone loss coming against Tennessee by just six points. They're coming off a 48-20 beatdown of a Kentucky team that nearly knocked off Georgia in a 13-12 slugfest.

Now, Georgia’s turnaround can be credited to the offense finding its footing. Despite some turnover issues, Carson Beck has looked much better, and former Gator Trevor Etienne is starting to rumble in the running game.

Georgia enters this matchup ranked sixth in EPA/play and 34th in offensive success rate and I like them to try and establish the run game early on, in part because it's Florida's biggest weakness.

Florida ranks 121st in defensive success rate vs. the rush as opposed to 25th on dropbacks. So, expect a heavy dose of Etienne.

On the other side, DJ Lagway is coming off the best college game of his career, throwing for 259 yards and rushing for another 46. That said, Lagway is clearly still developing as a passer, making Florida's offense a little one-dimensional. 

That may not work against a Georgia defense full of NFL talent and one that ranks seventh in EPA/play and 21st in success rate. Mix in the intensity of a rivalry game, and I think this game might start slower than expected.

Florida vs Georgia same-game parlay (SGP)

First half Under 26.5

Trevor Etienne Over 84.5 rushing yards

Trevor Etienne anytime touchdown

+380 at BetMGM

Georgia looked like its old self in the win over Texas, a physically imposing team with talent all over the field. The Bulldogs were also committed to running the football against a good Longhorns defense.

They rushed 30 times for 108 yards in that game and I'd be shocked if they don’t try to run the ball down the Gators' throats on Saturday. As noted, Florida’s run defense is pretty toothless.

The Gators rank 121st in defensive success rate against the rush, and because of that, teams are running against them far more than the national average as Florida also ranks 129th in RROE (rush rate over expected). 

That brings me to Trevor Etienne, the junior who did most of the damage in that Texas game, carrying the ball 19 times for a solid 87 yards. He now has 422 yards on 5.1 yards per carry this season and has found the end zone at least once in four straight games.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Florida vs Georgia odds

Florida vs Georgia live odds

Florida vs Georgia opening odds

• Florida vs. Georgia spread: Georgia -16.5
• Florida vs. Georgia moneyline: Florida +550, Georgia -800
• Florida vs. Georgia Over/Under: 51.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Florida vs Georgia spread and Over/Under analysis

• The spread for this rivalry game opened at 16.5. It hit 17 briefly before coming down as low as 16, depending on the book.
  
  
• Rivalry games are always interesting, and this is made more interesting by the fact that you can make the case both teams are playing their best football of the season. That said, Georgia has been at least a two-touchdown favorite in this matchup each of the last three seasons, going 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS.
  
  
• The total hit the board at 51.5 and has inched up slightly to 52 as of Thursday afternoon.
  
  
• I'm on the first-half Under and would lean full-game Under as well, but Georgia has the ability to make Florida quit in this game if they get pummelled for three quarters, so I'm a little more weary in this market.

Florida vs Georgia betting trend to know

Georgia has stayed Under the total in nine of its last 13 games for +4.60 units and a 32% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Florida vs Georgia.

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