Georgia State vs Utah State Prediction: Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Odds and Picks

Let’s head on over to the blue turf in Boise where the Georgia State Panthers battle the Utah State Aggies this afternoon in the 2023 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.

Shawn Elliott’s Georgia State squad represents the Sun Belt, having reached bowl eligibility in mid-October but has since lost five straight games to end the year. Blake Anderson’s Utah State team has some familiarity with this turf as a Mountain West member and the Aggies ended the year hot with three wins in their final four games. 

Looking at college football odds, the Aggies are 3-point favorites over the shorthanded Panthers while the total is set at 62.5. 

Read on for my full college football picks and bowl game odds for Georgia State vs. Utah State on Saturday, December 23.

Georgia State vs Utah State best odds

Georgia State vs Utah State picks and predictions

In this day and age of opt-outs and transfers, it’s always necessary to do a full accounting of every roster during bowl season. Let’s begin our handicap there, where it’s evident there’s a marked edge for one team. 

The Georgia State Panthers will be without several key players, including star running back and leading rusher Marcus Carroll and leading receiver Robert Lewis, who combined for 2,461 scrimmage yards and 20 touchdowns. 

Joining them in the portal are at least two more starters — right tackle Montavious Cunningham (the second highest-graded offensive lineman on the team, per PFF) and corner Tony McCray — as well as Carroll’s primary backup, KZ Adams. Center Avery Reese is out injured while left tackle Travis Glover (the only lineman graded higher than Cunningham this season) has opted out to prepare for his professional career. Joining them on the sidelines is linebacker Jontrey Hunter, who leads the team with 96 tackles and seven for losses. 

All in all, there are expected to be about a dozen players from the two-deep absent for this bowl game. All four starters mentioned above in the portal have found new homes at Power Four schools, so their losses will certainly be felt and it’s fair to question whether the replacements will be of equal caliber. 

The Utah State Aggies are in a much better position with six players in the portal in total, only one of whom is a rotational player (Devin Dye, the team’s fourth-leading tackler). Still, the Aggies aren’t exactly at full strength — quarterback Cooper Legas, wide receiver Micah Davis, corner Avante Dickerson, and linebacker Anthony Switzer are all injured. Levi Williams is expected to get the start at quarterback and although he’s played sparingly this season, he’s a fine option. 

He’s played well in his limited reps, averaging 7.4 yards per attempt while tossing four touchdowns to one interception. In his lone start, he rushed 25 times for 153 yards and a score in an Aggies win. He also brings plenty of experience to the table, going 2-0 in bowl games, including the 2021 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, during which he captured the game’s MVP award. 

The Aggies figure to expose one main weakness of this Panthers team — the secondary. Georgia State checks in at just 115th in EPA per pass and 112th in passing success rate, surrendering a whopping 3,445 passing yards and 28 passing touchdowns despite playing many rush-first Sun Belt teams. Let’s not forget about the opener when FCS school Rhode Island threw for 408 yards and four scores through the air. 

Six players in the two-deep in the secondary will miss this game, leaving the Panthers desperately thin in an area that will be needed against a high-flying Aggies aerial assault that ranks 45th in EPA per pass and 16th in passing explosiveness. The dynamic duo of Jalen Royals (1,023 receiving yards, 14 touchdowns) and Terrell Vaughn (847 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns) is primed to make a statement in this soft matchup. 

The Aggies were already a team I had circled coming into bowl season as they played better than their record would indicate despite cycling through three quarterbacks. All six losses came against quality bowl teams that had a combined record of 63-23. They played well in a few of those games, hanging tight with Iowa, James Madison, and Fresno State, so they’ve played decent football for much of the year. Consider that James Madison is a common opponent and Georgia State was blown out 42-14 in that contest. 

If I was already high on the Aggies heading into the bowl season, imagine my pleasure now that the opt-outs and transfer portal losses are minimal and they match up with a short-handed, free-falling team that is weakest where the Aggies are best. The line movement is in the right direction and it will likely only continue to head in Utah State’s direction. 

My best bet: Utah State -3 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Georgia State vs Utah State same-game parlay

Utah State -2.5

Utah State team total Over 30.5

+125 at bet365

The Aggies have a dangerous offense that averaged 34.1 PPG and 446.3 total yards per game on a robust 6.2 yards per play. They square off with a burnable Panthers defense that ranks just 98th in EPA per play while surrendering 30.8 PPG. 

That miserable defense enters this contest playing its worst ball of the season, allowing 41.8 PPG across its final five games of the season, all of which happened to be losses. 

What Utah State wants to do offensively under Anderson is hit big plays. It has been able to do so this season, ranking 19th in explosiveness, and it should be able to continue hitting home runs against a Georgia State defense that has been susceptible to the long ball, checking in at 112th in explosiveness.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Georgia State vs Utah State spread and Over/Under analysis

There’s been a lot of line movement in this game as Utah State opened as a slight underdog at +2.5 but has since moved to the favorite at -3. The total has dropped a tad from 63.5 at open to 62 at current. 

Georgia State concluded the season in a freefall, losing five straight games. Most of those weren’t particularly close, either. It lost 44-27 to a Georgia Southern team that has since lost its bowl game to a shorthanded Ohio team, was blown out 42-14 by both James Madison and Appalachian State, fell 56-14 to LSU, and narrowly lost 25-24 to an Old Dominion team that has also lost its bowl game. 

In evaluating the total, it’s hard for me to end up on the Under considering Utah State should expect at least 35 points in this forgiving matchup against a shorthanded team. The Aggies have struggled at points this season and it likely still gives up some plays to Georgia State as quarterback Darren Grainger is still a go. 

One major concern for Over bettors, however, is how the Panthers’ offensive line will hold up. It already had its fair share of troubles (118th in line yards, 95th in front seven havoc) and is now without its two best players going against a Utah State team featuring a disruptive front that ranks 35th in stuff rate.

Georgia State vs Utah State betting trend to know

Utah State head coach Blake Anderson is 5-1 all-time against Georgia State. Find more college football betting trends for Georgia State vs Utah State.

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