Georgia vs Florida State Prediction: Today's Orange Bowl Odds and Picks

This very well could have been a playoff matchup, if the Georgia Bulldogs had won the SEC and the Florida State Seminoles had not been abandoned by the College Football Playoff selection committee. Alas, it remains a shorthanded Orange Bowl meeting this afternoon.

That will be the emphasis of the game, this college football odds handicap, and probably the broadcast booth: just how many players have opted out from both teams. Some may say that makes these bowl game odds less enticing or the matchup less exciting. But they miss the value that's been created in the Orange Bowl, and our free college football picks and predictions for Florida State vs. Georgia on Saturday, December 30.

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Georgia vs Florida State best odds

Georgia vs Florida State picks and predictions

Think back to the ACC championship game. In that moment, Florida State still had hopes of making the College Football Playoff, led that night against Louisville by third-string quarterback Brock Glenn.

A significant piece of the Seminoles’ argument for a playoff bid was that Glenn would not lead them in a semifinal; second-stringer Tate Rodemaker was sidelined against the Cardinals by a concussion, something that would logically be resolved by the end of December. And that may have been true, but then Rodemaker jumped into the transfer market once the playoff was taken away from Florida State.

So, Glenn is back behind center. The same Glenn who completed just eight of 21 passes in the ACC title game for 55 yards, averaging 2.6 yards per pass attempt while not threatening Louisville with the rush, either.

Again, think back to that game and the narrative of the moment. Rightly or wrongly, the Seminoles had reason to be aggressive, cause to put up a lopsided score, a committee to impress. Instead, they clung to a 10-6 lead late in the fourth quarter. They found the end zone just once, a two-play drive courtesy of a 73-yard Lawrance Toafili rush. Florida State rushed 40 times while dropping back 25.

If that was what the Seminoles could put together when a playoff spot was somewhat on the line, what hope is there they will be suddenly more aggressive in the Orange Bowl? How might Florida State muster a more impressive offensive showing without star receivers Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman, as well as tight end Jaheim Bell and running back Trey Benson? And what chance do the Seminoles have at a worthwhile performance against a much stouter defense than the Cardinals’?

Because Georgia’s two-deep is that much deeper than Louisville’s. Yes, the Bulldogs are now without a handful of defensive starters, but it may be only a handful. Cornerback Kamari Lassiter, defensive tackle Nazir Stackhouse and linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson will not play. Even if another couple starters join them late, Georgia’s defense is good enough to withstand those losses. This may be the most talented roster in the country, after all.

The Bulldogs’ defense is not at the same level as its last two years, as made obvious by it not making the playoff. But it is still plenty good. Most notably, it gives up quality drives on fewer than a third of opponents’ possessions, ranking No. 18 in the country, per cfb-graphs.com.

That's where Florida State will run into its greatest trouble. It had no choice but to only run the ball against Louisville, even when everything was still at stake. Now, it has a more limited offense and will need to find success with a monotonous approach against a defense that excels in preventing explosive plays, particularly explosive rushes.

The Seminoles’ team total reflects that concern, set as low as 12.5. The worry with a number that low in an exhibition like this is perhaps Georgia lightens up late and gives up a touchdown in something beyond garbage time.

But a first-half team total of 6.5 is enticing, a number that would require Florida State to either rip off a chunk play against better athletes or put together a sustained drive against a top-tier defense at preventing them.

To assuage any last concerns with a number like this, one that can be blown apart in just one play, Georgia quarterback Carson Beck has thrown just two interceptions in his last six games.

My best bet: Florida State first-half team total Under 6.5 (-114 at BetRivers)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Georgia vs Florida State same-game parlay

Florida State first-half team total Under 6.5

Georgia first half -9.5

Florida State team total Over 12.5

+950 at BetRivers

Georgia will need to score only 17 points to be assured of covering this first-half spread given the logic of a Florida State first-half team total Under. And with Beck playing, as well as receiver Ladd McConkey reportedly intending to play a bit after injuries bothered him this season, 17 first-half points should be expected from the Bulldogs.

Only Alabama and Missouri have kept Georgia below 21 points before halftime in its last eight games. And with Florida State also suffering defensive attrition — six starters expected to be absent on Saturday — its defense is no longer anywhere near those levels. Yes, the Bulldogs are also without some players — most notably tight end Brock Bowers and at least two offensive line starters — but, again, this may be the most talented roster in the country. There are quality players available to step in.

If trusting those steps, then this same-game parlay comes down to a bet on the Seminoles to capitalize when Georgia begins to lapse late. A blowout will encourage some sloppiness. Taking that kind of risk at a nearly 10-to-1 payout is worthwhile, the kind of value that bowl games can offer.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Georgia vs Florida State spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread was always going to steam up from its opening number of favoring Georgia by two touchdowns. Some of that tied to doubts about Florida State’s motivation, some of it tied to the coming and then realized rash of opt-outs and transfers from the Seminoles’ roster.

Thus, it was no surprise to see it jump to -16 before Christmas and then climb as high as -20 toward the end of the past week.

As hard as it can be to gauge bowl games and the fractured rosters in them, it warrants noting that the Bulldogs went 3-7 against the spread when favored by two touchdowns or more this season and 2-2 ATS when favored by 14 to 21 points.

The total opened at 45.5 and then hardly moved despite the band of players choosing not to play this weekend, most notably dropping to 43.5 on Tuesday before returning to 44.5 by day’s end.

Georgia vs Florida State betting trend to know

The first-half Over cashed in eight of Georgia’s 13 games this season. Find more college football betting trends for Georgia vs. Florida State.

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