A pair of teams who allowed a combined three points in dominating Week 1 wins battle for in-state bragging rights in Week 2 when the Iowa State Cyclones visit the Iowa Hawkeyes.
The Hawkeyes have come out on top in seven of the last eight meetings, and my early Iowa State vs. Iowa predictions anticipate more of the same. Find out more in the college football picks ahead!
Iowa State vs Iowa predictions
Early spread lean
Iowa -3 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Iowa was business as usual on the defensive end, holding Illinois State to 189 total yards of offense. The Redbirds’ run game was non-existent, tallying 56 total yards in 33 attempts.
That doesn’t bode well for an Iowa State ground game that churned out little in Week 1’s 21-3 win over North Dakota, running for 86 yards on 22 totes and a major.
The Cyclones will probably need more from quarterback Rocco Becht, and he struggled in last year’s 20-13 loss to Iowa in Week 2. His 2024 debut was strong, a 20-for-26 performance for 267 yards and two scores, but Iowa will not make it easy.
A Top 4 passing defense in the Big Ten last year, the Hawkeyes limited Illinois State’s Tommy Rittenhouse to just 10-for-20 for 119 yards and an interception before getting yanked. On the other end, Iowa State limited North Dakota to a field goal, but its run defense had some holes, allowing 174 yards on a decent 4.1 yard-per-carry average.
This was a unit that owned the Big 12’s second-best run D at 131.6, but it’ll be facing off against the Hawkeyes, who just ripped off 241 yards on 40 carries against Illinois State.
With Cade McNamara back at QB for the Hawkeyes after suffering a season-ending ACL injury in Week 5 of the 2023 year, they should find enough offense to cover the spread.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 35.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The 35.5 total looks like an easy figure to top until you look at the recent head-to-head history.
The Cyclones and Hawkeyes have seen the Under cash in each of their last five matchups. If we use the total for Week 2, it’s still a healthy 3-1-1 Under record. The only time they’ve combined for 36 points or more was in 2021 when Iowa won 27-17.
After seeing McNamara’s numbers against the Redbirds, it’s easy to envision some light bulbs flashing on the scoreboards. He broke open a 6-0 halftime lead with three second-half TD passes, but he had a forgettable performance in Week 2 last season, as the Cyclones limited him to 12-for-22 passing for 123 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception.
With a lot of the same key players lining up in this one as they did in 2023, expect the defenses to come out and play with another familiar low-scoring battle.
Iowa State vs Iowa live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
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