After a break from action on Sunday, bowl season resumes on Monday with the Music City Bowl between the Iowa Hawkeyes and Missouri Tigers at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee.
Missouri is gunning for its second straight 10-win season, while Iowa aims for its fifth nine-win season in its last seven under Kirk Ferentz.
I'm taking a closer look at the player prop market with my college football picks for Monday, December 30.
Iowa vs Missouri props for the Music City Bowl
Carroll anytime TD (+105 at FanDuel)- Noel Over 58.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Sullivan Over 25.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made on 12-27.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Iowa vs Missouri Music City Bowl player props
Prop bet #1: Marcus Carroll anytime touchdown
The Missouri Tigers have a two-headed backfield of Nate Noel and Marcus Carroll. I'll focus on both backs with my player props for Music City, but let’s first praise Carroll.
The bruising back was a big get for Eli Drinkwitz in the portal after handling 274 carries for 1,350 yards and 13 touchdowns with Georgia State a year ago. Missouri’s offense typically fosters strong running back production, and Carroll’s physical running style has been a big part of his team’s success in 2024.
Carroll is listed with longer odds to score a touchdown (+105) than teammate Nate Noel (-115), but that simply doesn’t make sense. Carroll is the goal line back and will receive the bulk of the work in the red zone, so we’re pouncing on this number.
The Union City, GA native has found the end zone 12 times this season, including 10 times in his last seven contests. He’s coming off two strong performances in a row, handling 12 carries for 61 yards and two scores against Mississippi State, and 22 carries for 90 yards and two scores against Arkansas.
The rushing usage has been back-and-forth this season, but lately, Carroll has handled a bigger workload. There’s no bankable reason to expect that to change against a tough Iowa Hawkeyes defense.
Scoring is expected to be at a premium for a game with a total set at 40. There aren’t going to be many touchdowns, but know that Carroll is very likely to be involved in the end zone celebrations for the Tigers.
Prop bet #2: Nate Noel Over 58.5 rushing yards
Now, let’s examine Nate Noel. FanDuel Sportsbook has priced his rushing yardage prop at 58.5 with -114 odds to the Over.
The Appalachian State transfer has racked up 804 rushing yards in 10 games, good for an average of 80.4 yards per game. Iowa has a tough defense, but is it good enough to warrant a 22-yard discount in Noel’s prop line?
I’m betting no. The Hawkeyes surprisingly rank outside the Top 100 in rushing success rate allowed, finishing the regular season at 103rd. They do a fantastic job of limiting big plays (first in rushing explosiveness), but it’s not enough to offset their weakness in allowing successful rushes, giving them a ranking of 51st in EPA per rush.
There are a few concerning marks on the game log. That includes when the Hawkeyes allowed 211 rushing yards to UCLA’s woeful ground game, 212 rushing yards and a score to a Michigan State team that averaged just 115.3 yards on the season, and 203 rushing yards and a touchdown to a good Ohio State offense.
Iowa has not faced a difficult stretch of opposing offenses and yet has still managed to regress slightly on the defensive side of the ball. Missouri isn’t necessarily a juggernaut, but it still represents a challenge.
Noel has had two monster workload games in his last three, taking 27 carries against South Carolina and 25 against Mississippi State. The Miami, FL native responded in kind to justify that usage, racking up 150 rushing yards against the Gamecocks and 95 against the Bulldogs.
Star wide receiver Luther Burden has opted out of this game. Someone has to touch the ball for the Tigers offensively, and I’m betting that the running backs handle a big workload to compensate.
Prop bet #3: Brendan Sullivan Over 25.5 rushing yards
Iowa has been a revolving door at quarterback this season. Michigan transfer Cade McNamara featured in eight games before getting injured. Northwestern transfer Brendan Sullivan filled in admirably but then injured his ankle.
Walk-on Jackson Stratton started the last two games of the year, both of which resulted in Iowa victories. The staff has given word that Sullivan is back healthy and will start the bowl, however, providing a boost to his team.
Sullivan adds another element to this offense because he’s a threat with his legs. He picked up 40 yards against Northwestern and 58 yards against Wisconsin his the two games he started and finished. In another against UCLA, he was willing to use his legs (nine carries) but picked up 10 yards before leaving injured.
The big news offensively in this game is Iowa will be without star RB Kalen Johnson. He was essentially this team’s sole source of production, handling 240 carries for 1,537 yards and 21 touchdowns.
The Hawkeyes don’t have a one-for-one replacement for their star back, and frankly, most teams would not — Johnson was a dominant force who can’t be substituted for adequately. Kamari Moulton and Jaziun Patterson will likely split the work, but nothing in the prop market meets my eye for either play.
FanDuel has priced Sulliva’s rushing yardage prop at 25.5, and I’m eyeing the Over. He’s crushed that number in the two games in which he played a full allotment of snaps, and there’s every reason to expect him to sap up more usage sans Johnson.
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