Kansas State vs Kansas Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Back Giddens to Eclipse His Rushing Total

The Wildcats and Jayhawks are set to collide in the Sunflower State rivalry on Saturday, and Jason Ence is backing DJ Giddens to run roughshod in Lawrence during this Big 12 showdown. Read more in our Kansas State vs. Kansas betting picks.

Jason Ence - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Jason Ence • Betting Analyst
Nov 18, 2023 • 15:51 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Kansas will play its final game at Memorial Stadium in Lawrence today, and there’s no better way to close out the venue than with a Top 25 showdown with in-state rival Kansas State. However, the college football odds indicate there may not be a fairytale ending for the Jayhawks.

Kansas State comes into the game with a chance to make the Big XII title game, mired in a four-way tie for second place in the conference. The Wildcats will need their stellar rushing attack to thrive in order to continue their dominance against their rivals.

For the Jayhawks, they’ll be hoping quarterback Jason Bean will be available. They must win and get some help to keep their slim hopes alive for securing that second spot in the conference. Their rushing attack will also be key if they hope to defeat Kansas State for the first time since 2008.

Our college football picks for Kansas State vs. Kansas look at those rushing attacks as we’ve identified a great player prop for you to cash in on!

Kansas State vs Kansas best odds

Kansas State vs Kansas picks and predictions

There are few things better than finding a great player prop at a sportsbook and then discovering it’s significantly different from what you’d get anywhere else. That’s why our best bet this weekend is at least 83 yards rushing for Kansas State running back DJ Giddens — which FanDuel is offering for five yards less than anyplace else in Week 12.

Giddens has been a key part of a Kansas State unit that ranks 15th in college football in expected points added when running the ball. The Wildcats also rank 21st in run success rate and 16th in runs per game. In other words, they run the ball frequently and have great success when doing so.

It helps when you’ve got an offensive line opening up huge gaps. They’re among the best in college football in line yards per carry, allowing Giddens and quarterback Will Howard to get into open space. The Wildcats excel in getting to the second level, with their 70 runs of 10+ yards being the sixth-most nationally.

Last week, Giddens had 18 carries in their 59-25 beatdown of Baylor. It was his highest volume since a 30-carry day against UCF in late September. While he didn’t score, Giddens did rush for 115 yards. It was his third game of 85 or more yards in his last four outings, with only Texas holding him below that mark.

Kansas is going to have its hands full trying to replicate what the Longhorns achieved. While the Jayhawks have only allowed 39 carries of 10+ yards this season, their 4.5 yards allowed per carry ranks 89th in the nation. They are very below average in stuff rate and line yards allowed per rush and enter Week 12 just 125th in EPA per play against the run.

Making matters worse, Kansas has a success rate against the run of just 44.7% this season. Only 21 teams have a worse mark, highlighted by the fact it’s allowed a 100-yard game to five of the last six starting running backs faced.

Tahj Brooks ran for 133 yards on 33 carries last week. He joins Oklahoma back Tawee Walker (146 yards on 23 carries), Ollie Gordon II of Oklahoma State (168 yards on 29 carries), and Texas rusher Jonathon Brooks (218 yards on 21 carries) as conference opponents who have carved up the Kansas front seven of the past few weeks.

Kansas State ranks in the Top 10 in third-down success rate and is now facing a Kansas defense that is among the worst at getting off the field. Giddens should get more than enough carries to eclipse a rushing total that is being offered for less than it should be.

Head to FanDuel and capitalize on the incorrect total while you can.

My best bet: DJ Giddens Over 82.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

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Kansas State vs Kansas same-game parlay

D.J. Giddens Over 82.5 rushing yards

Kansas State -9.5

Kansas State team total Over 34.5

Kansas head coach Lance Leipold said early in the week that he believed QB Jason Bean would be ready to go, but has since walked that back. Given it’s a head injury, I expect we will see freshman Cole Ballard taking over.

That’s not going to be good enough to beat a Kansas State defense that boasts the third-best defense in the country on third down. We’ll take the Wildcats to cover the spread here.

We’re also going to take the Wildcats to hit their team total of 34.5 points. Kansas hasn’t held its in-state rival below that number since 2018, and has done so just twice in the last nine meetings. The Wildcats should ultimately get close to their 38.1 points per game average.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Kansas State vs Kansas spread and Over/Under analysis

The public was quick to jump on the opening spread for this game, moving the line from Kansas State +7.5 to +9.5 as the week progressed. DraftKings actually offered it last week at +4.0, so early bettors got tremendous closing-line value.

The Wildcats have covered the spread each of the last four seasons, and in the last three have done so as double-digit favorites. This season, they’re 7-2-1 against the spread and have covered in four of the last five with one push.

Meanwhile, the Jayhawks have failed to cover in two of their last four and are just 5-5 ATS this year. If they have to rely on a third-string quarterback, that trend could continue — and we could see the spread jump even further as we approach kickoff.

The total sits at 57.5 across the board and has also been up since the early offer of 55.5. The number jumped a whole point on Thursday and will likely fluctuate again based on the status of the Kansas quarterback position.

Kansas State has gone 6-4 on Overs this season, with its last two games eclipsing the set total with ease. Kansas has seen consecutive Unders cash after the Over hit in four of five.

Historically, the last three meetings hosted by Kansas have been lower-scoring affairs, with the Under going 4-1 in the last five contests at Memorial Stadium.

Kansas State vs Kansas betting trend to know

The first half Over is 9-4 in Kansas State’s last 13 games. Find more college football betting trends for Kansas State vs Kansas.

Kansas State vs Kansas game info

Location: David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, KS
Date: Saturday, November 18, 2023
Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: FS1

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Jason Ence - Covers
Betting Analyst

Jason has been hooked on soccer since watching Real Madrid and Manchester United in the 2003 Champions League, and has been betting on the sport for nearly 15 years. He has given soccer gambling and fantasy advice for nearly a decade, writing for sites including Rotowire, SB Nation, and The TwinSpires Edge.

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