With all due respect to the Kentucky Wildcats, the Texas Longhorns have probably overlooked this afternoon's game.
Although the Longhorns are three-touchdown favorites for a reason, my Kentucky vs. Texas predictions side with Mark Stoops on Saturday, November 23.
Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin with the game airing on ABC and ESPN.
Kentucky vs Texas prediction and best bet
Who will win Kentucky vs Texas?
This would not be the most shocking of SEC upsets. If this game is close in the fourth quarter, the entire college football conversation will marvel at how obvious this look-ahead moment was.
In a week, Texas will travel to Texas A&M for the first time in 13 years, and as long as the Longhorns win against the Wildcats and the Aggies hold serve at Auburn (the bigger ask of these two), that matchup will send the winner to the SEC title game. A roster of 18- to 23-year-olds would naturally overlook this expected blowout and already be anticipating that Lone Star Showdown.
Nonetheless, by no means should we expect this upset.
Kentucky has been a +15.5 or greater underdog 12 times since 2016. It has won just two of those outright. This will not be the third.
My best bet
Pick: Kentucky +20.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Stoops might not spring these massive upsets often, but he does make the more talented opponent miserable. Kentucky’s solid offensive and defensive line play, often with an intentionally dull gameplan, drags the top-tier opponents into the figurative mud.
Stoops has an M.O., one that shortens games and emphasizes a defense that cuts out explosive plays. This year’s Wildcats rendition is no different, even if a difficult schedule has dropped Kentucky to 4-6.
The Wildcats run the ball 10.8% more often than an average team would in a given game state, per cfb-graphs — the 25th-highest rate in the country. And Kentucky runs well, albeit methodically. The Wildcats stay ahead of the chains on 47.0% of their rush attempts, allowing them to churn out first downs by simply handing off the ball repeatedly.
That shortens games, even if it also lowers Kentucky’s ceiling. And shortening a game helps cover a three-touchdown spread.
The other side of the ball, though, is where the Wildcats most diminish blowout worries. Their defense is not stellar on a down-by-down basis. It ranks No. 94 in the country in success rate, but it also ranks No. 14 in expected points added (EPA).
To turn those into layman’s terms, Kentucky allows opponents repeated modest gains but drastically limits explosive plays. There is no reason for Texas to not agree to those terms. Take the small gains and eventually score a couple of times, then coast to a victory.
Hefty favorites tend to agree to those terms against the Wildcats. Stoops & Co. are 3-0 against the spread this year as underdogs of 15.5 or more, 5-0 since 2021 and 9-2-1 since 2016.
This M.O. works. Well, it works for gambling terms but perhaps not for wins and losses on the scoreboard.
Kentucky vs Texas same-game parlay (SGP)
Kentucky +19.5
Alternate Under 42.5
Matthew Golden anytime touchdown
In the three moments this season with Kentucky as a lopsided underdog like this, the Under has cashed twice. With the Wildcats going 5-0 ATS in these moments since 2021, the Under has paid four times. In the dozen total instances since 2016, the Under has cashed eight times.
But it has not only cashed, it has easily cashed. Those eight Unders fell short of their respective totals by an average of 18.25 points, hence the choice of an alternate number.
Reaching back to 2016 for applicable thoughts may bother some handicappers, but Stoops’ approach has remained consistent this entire time. That is the common thread.
As for including junior receiver Matthew Golden, it is difficult to find a wanted player prop among BetMGM’s offerings, but Golden has scored five times in the last three games — two of which were close contests.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Kentucky vs Texas odds
Kentucky vs Texas live odds
Kentucky vs Texas opening odds
- Kentucky vs. Texas spread: Texas -18.5
- Kentucky vs. Texas moneyline: Kentucky +900, Texas -1,600
- Kentucky vs. Texas Over/Under: 47.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Kentucky vs Texas spread and Over/Under analysis
- Sunday’s very first numbers listed Texas as an 18.5-point favorite, a number that jumped to -20.5 before the entire odds board had lit up. The number then held there all week.
- If looking purely at power ratings, this spread could be more in the realm of -24.5, so there is reason to think this line has already been lowered given both Texas’s lookahead potential and Kentucky’s trends in these moments.
- This total first hit the board at 47.5 and quickly fell to 46.5. But that did not last, returning to 47.5 on Sunday night and holding there until Thursday evening, slipping back to 46.5 at that point.
- According to our Covers Consensus tool, 57% of users are backing the Kentucky spread while 61% are expecting the game to go Over 47.5 points.
Kentucky vs Texas betting trend to know
Texas totals have gone to the Under four times in the Longhorns’ last six games, with one of those exceptions being a push. Find more college football betting trends for Kentucky vs Texas.
How to watch Kentucky vs Texas
| Location: | DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-23, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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