The risk of a good season at the Group of Five level is you may end it without your coach, and when that possibility becomes reality, it always skews the outside view of your bowl game. Louisiana faces Marshall with Billy Napier now leading the efforts at Florida. Marshall does not have to worry about such turmoil, though it might be a better sign for the Herd if it did.
Here are our free college football picks and predictions for an early game on the college football bowl schedule with Louisiana vs. Marshall in the New Orleans Bowl on December 18, with kickoff set for 9:15 p.m. ET.
Louisiana vs Marshall odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Louisiana opened as a 5-point favorite on Dec. 6, a number that jumped to -6 in just more than an hour. By last weekend, though, it had fallen back to -5 across the board, where it has remained this entire week. The total opened as low as 51.5 before jumping to 53 by the end of that day and then steadily ticking up to 55 at most books, with some even offering a 56.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Louisiana vs Marshall predictions
Predictions made on 12/16/2021 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Louisiana vs Marshall game info
• Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
• Date: Saturday, December 18, 2021
• Time: 9:15 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Louisiana vs Marshall betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Louisiana: Christian Sabatini TE (Questionable), Devon Pauley WR (Questionable), Andre Landry DL (Out), Da’Jon Bonnee WR (Out), Tito Byce RB (Out).
Marshall: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Louisiana is 0-4 ATS in its last four bowl games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Louisiana vs. Marshall.
Louisiana vs Marshall picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
When Napier took the Florida job, he made it clear he would coach the Ragin’ Cajuns in the Sun Belt championship game. He received no pushback from anyone around the Louisiana program.
That game was their end-all, be-all. The Cajuns entered the 2021 season with one goal above all others: Win the Sun Belt.
The conference has had a title game for four years now. In the first three, Louisiana twice lost to Appalachian State and then was robbed of the chance to win in 2020 by the pandemic canceling the game, despite the Cajuns reaching it for a third straight year.
Finally winning the Sun Belt in 2021, let alone upsetting Appalachian State to do so, got the proverbial monkey off Louisiana’s back. The team literally put Napier on its shoulders after the game, hardly the typical send-off for a coach choosing to leave a team for another job.
All of which is to say, the Cajuns look ripe for a letdown. They achieved their goal. A bowl game in New Orleans will be a celebration, and of all cities to celebrate in …
Marshall, meanwhile, had a frustrating season. Four of its five losses came by one possession. That could be taken to mean the Herd struggles in close games, but it could also be looked at as an indicator that it will not get blown out this weekend. (The fifth loss, a 32-point defeat to Western Kentucky, propelled the Hilltoppers into the Conference USA championship game.) Furthermore, it could be looked at as a strong suggestion that Marshall is better than its 7-5 record indicates, especially since only one win came by one possession.
Prediction: Marshall +5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
If this handicap is somewhat based on the idea of Louisiana being hungover, perhaps as much literally as figuratively, then the Under is the quick play, especially since neither of these two has especially prolific offenses. Though they averaged 5.96 yards per play (Louisiana) and 6.4 yards per play (Marshall), they also capitalized on some of the dregs of their respective conferences, of which there are many.
The Herd has been an underdog or a single-digit favorite a total of five times this season. That includes the season-opening 49-7 trouncing of Navy as a three-point favorite. In the last four occasions, Marshall has averaged only 23.25 points per game. Going 1-3 in those occasions may help explain the four one-score losses, as two of them fit that qualification. To this point, though, it makes it clear how the Herd handles close games.
Prediction: Under 56 (-110)
Best bet
This particular handicapper does not deal much with taking the points in bowl season. As ESPN’s Chris Fallica points out every year, when an underdog covers the spread in a bowl game, it is also likely to win the game. Since 2008, single-digit underdogs have covered the spread 51 percent of the time in bowl games, a perfectly reasonable rate. When they do cover, they win 77.2 percent of the time.
The expected value on that makes it clear. Don’t worry about how much Marshall may lose by. Bet on the Herd winning.
Pick: Marshall ML (+168)
Did you know that if you parlayed our Louisiana vs. Marshall picks, you could win $87.68 on a $10 bet?
Use our college football parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
