Louisville vs USC Prediction: Holiday Bowl Odds and Picks

The 2023 Holiday Bowl is an intriguing matchup between a team that vastly out-produced expectations and one that underwhelmed after being tabbed as the preseason Pac-12 favorite.

Jeff Brohm revitalized the No. 16 Louisville Cardinals in Year 1 of his tenure. After already impressing with a 10-win season for the seventh time in program history, Brohm & Co. will look for an 11th victory as they take on Lincoln Riley’s disappointing USC Trojans tonight in at Petco Park in San Diego. 

Riley has already made several changes to his staff in response to this season’s failures. Going into the year, the Trojans were seen as a playoff contender. Now, they're trying to stave off a sixth loss. 

Looking at the college football odds, the Cardinals are a 7.5-point favorite, while the total resides at 57.5. I’m eyeing the Over/Under in a game with plenty of transfer portal entrants and opt-outs, making for a unique adjustment to the number. 

Read on for my best bet and free college football picks and predictions for the Louisville Cardinals vs. the USC Trojans on Wednesday, December 27. 

Be sure to also check out our bowl game odds page and opt-out tracker so you don't miss a thing this bowl season!

Louisville vs USC best odds

Louisville vs USC picks and predictions

Think back to the preseason when there were high expectations for a USC Trojans team that won 11 games in Lincoln Riley’s first season, returned a Heisman winner at quarterback, and hit the transfer portal hard to address its biggest weakness — a struggling defense. That seems like a long time ago now, doesn’t it?

The defense didn’t improve, the offense regressed when the O-line and wide receiving room took a step back, and the Trojans went just 7-5 while failing to play a factor in the race for the final Pac-12 Championship. Riley has attempted to make some much-needed and overdue changes, canning defensive coordinator Alex Grinch mid-season and naming an impressive successor — UCLA’s D’Antonn Lynn. 

Those changes won’t be felt immediately, however, and several eye-popping portal entrants raise questions about the future under Riley’s watch. That includes three former five-star recruits in quarterback Malachi Nelson, corner Domani Jackson, and edge Korey Foreman. High four-star running back Raleek Brown entered the portal after an injury-plagued and absence-filled second year, as did freshman linebacker Tackett Curtis. The latter is an especially concerning entrant as he seemed like a building block of the future and a pillar of Riley’s hoped-for defensive improvement after being a huge recruiting win and playing 355 snaps during his first and only year on campus.

Miller Moss is expected to start at quarterback with Caleb Williams opting out. He’s completed 43 of his 59 career passing attempts across three seasons, tossing for 542 yards and three touchdowns to zero interceptions. He’s not expected to be the quarterback of the future for this program as Riley is searching hard in the portal for next year’s heir. 

Moss will be without a few key skill players around him as star running back Marshawn Lloyd and second-leading receiver Brenden Rice have opted out. The two combined for 1,843 scrimmage yards and 21 touchdowns this season. Rotational receivers Mario Williams and Michael Jackson III will also be absent. 

The Louisville Cardinals offer a stark contrast in that they played better than expectations this season en route to an appearance in the ACC Championship game. Jeff Brohm has the Cardinals primed for success in this conference going forward and they were solid on both sides of the ball, checking in at 21st in success rate on offense and 11th in success rate on defense. 

The biggest absences for the Cardinals in the bowl game are at the skill positions where star running back Jawhar Jordan and leading receiver Jamari Thrash will opt out to prepare for the NFL Draft. The two combined for 2,244 scrimmage yards and 21 touchdowns this season as major focal points.

The good news is that backup running back Isaac Guerendo has been devastatingly effective, racking up 841 scrimmage yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 6.7 yards per touch. Thrash has been limited by injury over the second half of the season and while his loss will sting, the coaching staff is familiar with game planning for an absent or severely limited Thrash at this point. 

I’m going to take a closer look at the total with my best bet. Louisville should still expect to find offense success against a Trojans defense that ranks just 122nd in EPA per play and 118th in explosiveness. Guerendo should have a field day against a miserable Trojans front (125th in EPA per rush, 109th in line yards). 

Public perception has soured on Louisville’s offense for two reasons. First, its two best skill players have opted out — but both haven’t been healthy for over a month anyway and Louisville still scored 31 or more points in four of its final games. 

The second reason is that the ACC Championship game left a sour taste in viewers’ mouths after the Cardinals managed just six points, 188 total yards, and 2.7 yards per play. But that came against a loaded Florida State defense stacked with NFL players that bears no resemblance to USC’s turnstile unit. 

That was only the second time this season that Louisville mustered less than 5.1 yards per play in a game, so I’m willing to overlook one poor game. 

While USC will be shorthanded offensively, I think the Trojans could still score some points here with a four-star QB who has been effective in limited snaps. He still has a plethora of talent around him, including leading receiver Tahj Washington (963 receiving yards, six touchdowns), freshman phenom Zachariah Branch, Dorian Singer (1,105 receiving yards, six touchdowns with Arizona), and running back Austin Jones (3,154 scrimmage yards, 27 touchdowns in his career). 

Louisville’s defense has some pretty metrics, but it has also been burned badly a few times this season when facing capable offenses. Georgia Tech (34 points, 488 yards on 7 yards per play), Virginia (24 points, 434 yards on 6.4 yards per play), Miami (31 points, 486 yards on 7.5 yards per play), and Kentucky (38 points) all found success against the Cardinals, and USC may be the best offense of any of those teams. There’s a debate to be had if this current version of USC has a better offense than Georgia Tech, but the fact remains that the Trojans still have plenty of talent and can find the end zone against Louisville, as has been the case for most offenses with a pulse.

Give me one more Trojans Over in 2023.

My best bet: Over 57.5 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Louisville vs USC same-game parlay

Over 57.5

USC +7.5

+258 at FanDuel

Here’s a two-leg SGP featuring my best bet on the full game Over combined with USC against the spread. 

I understand that it’s difficult to play USC at this point in time with a basement-level defense, plenty of opt-out and transfer concerns, and plenty of negative coverage surrounding the team recently. That being said, that’s exactly why I find them intriguing for the Holiday Bowl — sometimes the most difficult bets to make are the best ones. 

That’s not always the case, but I feel like we’re getting some value here with the Trojans. They beat bad teams and lose to good ones. While Louisville is a good team, the Pac-12 was a gauntlet while the ACC was down this season, so it’s not as simple as the records would indicate. 

Louisville faced an easy schedule and its most impressive game of the season was by far a 33-20 win over Notre Dame. Other than that, it played within eight points against Georgia Tech (five-point win), Pittsburgh (17-point loss), Virginia (seven-point win), Miami (seven-point win), Kentucky (seven-point loss), and Florida State (10-point loss). 

There’s nothing on this resume indicating that the Cardinals can blow out a bowl team. While that may still come to fruition, it hasn’t with any regularity, so I’m siding with the underdog. The Trojans have the travel advantage here in a game being played in San Diego which is right in their backyard.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Louisville vs USC spread and Over/Under analysis

The line movement has been toward Louisville as the Cardinals have moved from -6.5 at open to -7.5 at current. It moved to -8 briefly before dropping down to -7.5 across most locations as of Thursday afternoon. 

I’d anticipate that there will continue to be buyback on USC anytime the line moves further toward Louisville. We’ve already crossed a key number and the Cardinals faced a low level of opposition this season while USC faced a very tough one over the second half of the year. This creates a situation in which there’s likely to be some sharp money buyback on the Trojans each time the line inflates a bit. 

The total has mostly remained constant, which may be surprising to some people considering the offensive personnel absences. Personally, I think most of the transfer portal entrants and NFL opt-outs were to be anticipated, and that was baked into the opening number. 

USC is 9-3 O/U this season and the average total of the three Unders was 70. We’re getting a total that is 12.5 points below that average and I think the adjustment was too steep.

Louisville vs USC betting trend to know

USC is 17-3 to the Over across its last 20 games. Find more college football betting trends for Louisville vs USC.

Louisville vs USC game info

Louisville vs USC latest injuries

Louisville vs USC weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic