If you're looking for a Michigan vs. Ohio State prediction, you've come to the right place.
Ryan Day’s chance at revenge has finally arrived. The Ohio State Buckeyes head coach has not beaten the Michigan Wolverines since 2019.
There are reasons both within this rivalry and within the season’s bigger picture to expect Day to run up the score, which is why my college football picks expect a blowout for today's Noon kickoff on FOX.
Michigan vs Ohio State prediction and best bet
Who will win Michigan vs Ohio State?
Every loss to Michigan has made Day’s seat hotter. His job has never been in genuine jeopardy — reaching the national championship game in 2020 certainly bought Day some leeway, as does his 66-9 record to date through seven seasons, never losing more than two games in a year — but Buckeyes fans do not tolerate losing to “That School Up North.”
In the spirit of the season, thankfully this version of Michigan has no potency to worry Day or the Ohio State faithful.
The Wolverines have no passing offense to worry about, ranking No. 128 in the country in yards per game, No. 116 in passing touchdowns this season, and No. 125 in passer rating. That would all be fine if Michigan had a rushing attack like years past, but it ranks only No. 38 in the country in expected points added (EPA) per rush, according to cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com.
Going against the best defense in the country, the Wolverines will struggle to score at all. And in football, you need to score to win.
My best bet
Ohio State -19.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Think big picture. Ohio State could lose in the Big Ten title game rematch with Oregon, falling to 11-2 on the season. The Buckeyes would still certainly be in the 12-team College Football Playoff, but would they be a top-8 seed hosting a first-round game? Likely, but not without a doubt.
Ohio State should impress the selection committee when it gets the chance. Day has emphasized that already, adding a last-minute touchdown to run up the score on Indiana last week and winning the last three games by an average of 30.7 points.
Saturday will be the five-year anniversary since the last time Ohio State beat Michigan, to the day.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 28, 2024
Speaking of days, Ryan Day needs this. He needs it emphatically. pic.twitter.com/6FTlEIf3s6
Michigan is far and away better than Northwestern and Purdue, but it is worse than the Hoosiers, and Ohio State had no trouble last week.
Its defense shined, holding the potent Indiana offense to six yards on 33 snaps on nine drives between opening and closing touchdowns. The opening script was impressive, but aside from that, the Hoosiers found absolutely no success until a garbage-time touchdown.
The Buckeyes needed to worry about both aspects of Indiana’s offense. They will not have those worries against Michigan. Single coverage will be enough to shut down this woeful passing game, and then the Buckeyes’ newly aggressive defensive front should stifle any rushing attack.
So thoroughly shutting down the Wolverines’ offense will create plenty of opportunities for Will Howard and Ryan Day to run up the score. Each stalled Michigan drive will quickly give the ball back to Ohio State, and the Buckeyes produce quality drives on 54.4% of their possessions, No. 13 in the country. That many bites at the apple will yield at least 30 points, even if the Wolverines’ defense is well above average. It simply is not at the stellar level it has been in recent years.
Playoff positioning is at stake, as is a personal score. And Day will finally get his vengeance.
Michigan vs Ohio State same-game parlay (SGP)
Ohio State -19.5
Over 42.5
Will Howard anytime touchdown
There is an instinct to think Michigan will try to shorten this game and there could thus be value in the Under, but the Wolverines will not find the rushing success they would need for that. Ohio State’s defense is too good. Frankly, it is underrated and the reason to think of the Buckeyes as the clear national title favorites.
Michigan’s repeated rushing attempts will fail, only leading to shorter possessions and only leading to Ohio State’s dynamic offense having chances to put work on the scoreboard.
The Wolverines’ defense is good enough to make some of those points hard-earned, and when Ohio State gets near the goal line on those drives, look for Will Howard to keep the ball himself. He has scored seven times this year, eight if not for a fumble at the inch line at Penn State.
Howard's rushing helps the Buckeyes compensate for some offensive line injuries, allowing his running backs to pick up extra defenders and clear his path.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Michigan vs Ohio State odds
Michigan vs Ohio State live odds
Michigan vs Ohio State opening odds
- Michigan vs. Ohio State spread: Ohio State -20.5
- Michigan vs. Ohio State moneyline: Michigan +310, Ohio State -400
- Michigan vs. Ohio State Over/Under: 43.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Michigan vs Ohio State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Summer look-ahead lines expected Michigan to struggle this season... just not this much. Ohio State was a 9.5- or 10-point favorite all summer.
- When Sunday’s true market opened, the Buckeyes were 21-point favorites, a number that slipped to -20.5 on Monday and held there until dropping below -20 late on Wednesday.
- This total opened this week at 43.5, dropping as low as 41.5 at some books, with 42 being a key number in this conversation.
- Covers Consensus has the spread at 50/50, but a whopping 74% of users like the Over.
Michigan vs Ohio State betting trend to know
Not only did Michigan beat Ohio State each of the last three years, but it went 3-0 against the spread in doing so. More notably, the Wolverines were touchdown underdogs in 2021 and 2022, further emphasizing how disappointed Buckeyes fans have been in this rivalry. Find more college football betting trends for Michigan vs Ohio State.
Michigan vs Ohio State game info
| Location: | Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-30-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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