The Minnesota Gophers and Wisconsin Badgers have met 133 times, every year since 1890 except for 1906, when President Theodore Roosevelt’s worries about safety cut short much of the college football season.
The Badgers hold the all-time series record at 63-62-8, but not for long.
My Minnesota vs. Wisconsin predictions expect the Gophers to relish knocking their biggest rivals out of bowl season. These college football picks lean into the plus moneyline before kickoff at 12 ET on November 29.
Minnesota vs Wisconsin prediction and best bet
Who will win Minnesota vs Wisconsin?
At best, Wisconsin has been inconsistent this season. The only thing more disappointing than its 5-6 outright record is its 4-7 showing against the spread.
The Badgers were never expected to be stellar, not with a preseason win total of 6.5, but this has been a particularly deflating stumble to the brink of missing a bowl. Wisconsin was 5-2 outright halfway through October. Worse yet, this four-game losing streak has not been particularly valiant.
The Badgers kept it close on the scoreboard against Oregon, not that the Ducks were ever in truly dire shape. Wisconsin has lost the other three games in this losing streak by an average of 22 points, the 0-3 ATS record in those outright losses underscored by falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 18.7 points.
Wisconsin’s season has fallen apart, and Minnesota gets to put the final nail in this figurative coffin this weekend.
My best bet
Minnesota moneyline (+100 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
There is more to this rivalry than most realize. Minnesota has 50 players on its roster from one of the two states. Wisconsin has 51. These players know each other. They played together and against each other in high school. Some were recruited over others. Neither program has such a robust NIL program as to have imported bounties of starters from elsewhere. These teams want to beat the other.
Except that may not be enough for the Wisconsin Badgers. Not when they've already fired offensive coordinator Phil Longo. Doing so elicited a 25-point outburst last week, 'outburst' an appropriate description for an offense that had scored 13, 10, and 13 points in its last three games and had not scored more than 24 points since Oct. 12.
However, eight of those points came as the result of a 58-yard pass, a surprising necessity for Wisconsin this season. For an offense that has struggled to produce explosive plays regularly, its few explosive plays have often been the bulk of production this season.
The Minnesota Golden Gophers will not allow those. This defense ranks No. 10 in expected points added (EPA) per dropback against. Put that in comparison to giving up success on 39.5% of dropbacks against, No. 68 in the country, per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com.
Minnesota is decidedly average in letting opponents keep up with the chains when passing but aggressively outstanding at stopping them from changing the game through the air. Without that, Wisconsin’s offense may be doomed.
Minnesota has enough playmakers — namely running back Darius Taylor and receiver Daniel Jackson — to find success at some point against a decent but far from great Badgers defense, and just some success will be enough to end the third-longest bowl streak in the country, Wisconsin failing to win six games for the first time in 24 years (2020 aside, when a 4-3 record was enough to make a bowl game).
Minnesota vs Wisconsin same-game parlay (SGP)
Minnesota moneyline
Under 41.5
Darrion Dupree Over 44.5 rushing yards
Minnesota’s defense is overall comparable to Nebraska’s, but the Huskers make their hay by stopping the run, while the Gophers excel against the pass.
Part of why Longo was fired was his failure to establish the run, an absolute must if you want to play in Camp Randall. Taking away those explosive pass plays from the Badgers could thoroughly doom Wisconsin’s output, at which point Minnesota will not see a need to run up the score, simply to get the win.
However, interim offensive coordinator Kenny Guiton tends to emphasize the run. He will certainly try to this weekend, best to attack this Gophers defense and best to keep their playmakers off the field. Last week, he leaned on freshman Darrion Dupree to the tune of 63 yards on eight carries, part of Dupree taking on more and more of a role as the season has progressed.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Minnesota vs Wisconsin odds
Minnesota vs Wisconsin live odds
Minnesota vs Wisconsin opening odds
- Minnesota vs. Wisconsin spread: Wisconsin -2
- Minnesota vs. Wisconsin moneyline: Minnesota +105, Wisconsin -125
- Minnesota vs. Wisconsin Over/Under: 44.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Minnesota vs Wisconsin spread and Over/Under analysis
- This number hit Sunday’s market with Wisconsin favored by a full field goal before nearly immediately falling to -2. It climbed to -2.5 on Monday before settling at -1.5 or even -1 on Wednesday.
- What is more impressive than Minnesota exceeding its preseason win total of 4.5 by now standing at 6-5 outright is that the Gophers have gone 8-2-1 against the spread, including 6-1 in their last seven, exceeding expectations by an average of 7.5 points in that stretch, even including the ATS loss.
- This total opened at 44.5 and methodically fell to 41.5 by Wednesday afternoon, one point per day.
Minnesota vs Wisconsin betting trend to know
Minnesota has gone 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings for Paul Bunyan’s Axe. Find more college football betting trends for Minnesota vs Wisconsin.
Minnesota vs Wisconsin game info
| Location: | Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WI |
| Date: | Friday, 11-29, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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