Mississippi vs Georgia Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Bulldogs Quash the Rebellion

The Georgia Bulldogs haven’t taken an L since the 2021 SEC Championship Game, sitting at an incredible 26 consecutive wins and back-to-back national championships.

But, while the Bulldogs are 9-0 this season, this iteration's aura doesn’t feel as impenetrable as in recent years. Particularly with Brock Bowers on the sidelines.

UGA has covered just three spreads all season and the Bulldogs welcome the surging Mississippi Rebels to Athens this afternoon. The Rebels have won five in a row heading into this matchup, but it feels like they have come up short recently in the biggest games.

Can Lane Kiffin finally get that signature win for Mississippi and cover the spread in the process? Or will the Dawgs show their championship mettle? I break down the college football odds and bring you my best college football picks for Mississippi vs. Georgia.

Mississippi vs Georgia best odds

Mississippi vs Georgia picks and predictions

It seems to be the same old story for Lane Kiffin’s Rebels, with Mississippi amid a solid season. The Rebels enter this matchup with the No. 2 ranked Bulldogs with an 8-1 record and having won five in a row, but that one loss was predictably against Alabama.

The Rebels have had a tendency to come up short in their biggest games, and Saturday’s matchup in Athens qualifies. So, can Mississippi get over that hump?

Despite being 9-0, Georgia doesn't look invincible like it has in years past. Unfortunately for Rebels fans, this just may not be a good matchup for Mississippi, as UGA is a much more physical team in the trenches.

And despite not being a historic defense, UGA still ranks 13th in opponent yards per play and 23rd in defensive success rate. The Rebels may also not be able to take advantage of the Bulldogs on the ground as they might have hoped.  

Georgia is coming off a tough battle against Missouri where the Tigers were able to have success in that game by running the ball off the tackles. News out of Mississippi this week, is that starting right tackle Micah Pettus has broken his foot and will miss this game. That’s a big loss.

Then there is the fact Mississippi's defense might be a little overrated. The Rebels rank 32nd in opponent yards per play and have looked shaky in recent weeks, including almost blowing last week’s matchup against Texas A&M. And that Aggies squad’s offense is suspect at best. Overall, Mississippi enters this game ranked 57th in defensive success rate.

And that’s a problem against Carson Beck and this Georgia offense. People were worried about how Beck would perform when all-world tight end Brock Bowers went down with an injury. All Beck has done was throw for 569 yards and four scores with no interceptions in the last two weeks. Georgia ranks eighth in yards per play and third in offensive success rate.

Oh, and reports are coming out that Bowers could return for this game. 

No disrespect to Mizzou, but I would say Georgia’s biggest games were against Kentucky and Florida. The Bulldogs crushed and covered both. Lane doesn’t get that signature win this week as Georgia rolls to another win.

My best bet: Georgia -10.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Mississippi vs Georgia same-game parlay

Georgia -10.5

Daijun Edwards Over 85.5 rushing yards

Jaxson Dart 25+ rushing yards

30% boost available

+516 +670 at FanDuel

One of the reasons I believe the Bulldogs can cover this spread is because Mississippi won’t have an answer for this offense: particularly the running game.

The Rebs’ defense ranks 50th in EPA/rush and 73rd in defensive success rate vs. the run. That means Dawgs running back Daijun Edwards could have a big day. Edwards has seen his usage go up the last few weeks, carrying the ball 52 times for 319 yards over the last three games. 

I'm closing this SGP out by looking at Mississippi quarterback Jaxson Dart. Dart needs to be effective with both his arms and his legs if the Rebels want to have a shot here. But missing his right tackle could be a problem and result in more broken plays. Dart has rushed for 25 or more yards six times this season. I'm taking his alt-rushing yards for him to do it again in a game where he might have to create something out of nothing.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mississippi vs Georgia spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread for this SEC throwdown opened with Georgia as 11-point home chalk, but it’s the Rebels who have seen the early money with the line now at 10.5. Mississippi looks like it will be a public dog this week and is seeing 55% of the wagers so far according to our Covers Consensus. 

When it comes to the total, it hit the board at 58.5 and that’s where it stands as of Thursday afternoon. I’m wary of making a play on the total here because even if they haven’t done it consistently, the Bulldogs are capable of putting up a big number. Particularly if they get Bowers back. 

But I could also see the run games playing a big factor here and milking the clock a little more. Well, at least from Georgia’s end. Simply put, I see a wide variety of outcomes here. Enough so that I’m staying away.

Mississippi vs Georgia betting trend to know

Mississippi has only hit the team total Over in two of its last five games for -1.45 units. Find more college football betting trends for Mississippi vs Georgia.

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