A stunning loss to Vanderbilt was followed by a tough defeat at Tennessee, and suddenly, the Alabama Crimson Tide's College Football Playoff hopes hang by a thread heading into today's matchup vs. the Missouri Tigers at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
My Missouri vs. Alabama predictions believe the 6-1 Tigers are getting too many points, and I'll break it all down in my latest college football picks for October 26, with kickoff at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC
For more on this game, check out Jason Ence's Missouri vs. Alabama prop picks.
Missouri vs Alabama prediction and best bet
My best bet
Missouri +16.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Alabama’s dreams of winning the SEC were dashed following the loss to Tennessee, and its College Football Playoff hopes aren’t far behind.
It's unlikely a three-loss team advances to the CFP this season, particularly when you consider that there are seven other SEC teams ahead of Bama in the conference standings.
The issues that have held Alabama back all season showed up in the Tennessee loss. The Tide needed better offensive line play, and they couldn’t run the ball consistently — now ranking 56th in offensive success on rushes. The Vols were able to limit the explosive plays that have been the lifeblood of this Alabama offense.
Meanwhile, Dylan Sampson shredded a defense that now ranks 50th in success rate vs. the rush, while Nico Iamaleava was able to hit some big plays through the air against a shaky Bama secondary.
Although the 6-1 Tigers haven't needed a fourth-quarter comeback to beat Auburn 21-17 last week, the advanced numbers say this is still a solid Missouri team. That's particularly the case on defense, where they rank seventh in success rate.
The line initially opened around Alabama -14, but after Missouri's injury report came out — including key players like running back Nate Noel and quarterback Brady Cook — it spiked as high as -17 at some sportsbooks. However, I believe that's an overreaction.
Missouri has a solid backup QB in Marcus Carroll, who has rushed for 321 yards at nearly five yards per carry. My gut feeling is that Cook will tough it out, and if he's on the field, he'll be throwing to one of the best wide receiver groups in the nation.
This is too many points to lay with Alabama at this point, as the Tide have proven they are a deeply flawed team. Hell, the Tide haven’t won an SEC game by more than a touchdown.
Kalen DeBoer needs to establish the run in this one, and I'm not sure that changes much in this matchup. Take the points with the Tigers.
Missouri vs Alabama same-game parlay (SGP)
Missouri +16.5
Under 26.5 first-half total
Luther Burden III anytime touchdown
Alabama can’t think that letting Jalen Milroe drop back and huck the ball up 50 times is the way for this offense to be successful, so I expect more running from the Tide in this one.
Unfortunately, the run defense has been a massive strength of Missouri's, as the Tigers rank 19th in EPA per rush and are allowing just 3.5 yards per carry.
Even if Noel is out, Missouri should try to establish its ground game. Tennessee and Vanderbilt both had success running the football against Alabama, and lots of running will mean the clock constantly moving.
I was initially looking for a Marcus Carroll anytime touchdown, but we probably won’t be offered that market until Noel’s status is confirmed. Instead, I’ll back Luther Burden III to reach paydirt. Projected to be one of the top wideouts picked in next April’s NFL Draft, the Tigers WR boasts four receiving TDs already this season, including another two scored on the ground.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Missouri vs Alabama odds
Missouri vs Alabama live odds
Missouri vs Alabama opening odds
- Missouri vs. Alabama spread: Alabama -14
- Missouri vs. Alabama moneyline: Missouri +425, Alabama -575
- Missouri vs. Alabama Over/Under: 56
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Missouri vs Alabama spread and Over/Under analysis
- Alabama opened this SEC matchup as two-touchdown favorites, with the line move to -17 following Missouri's early-week injury report.
- The Crimson Tide are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.
- The total hit the board at 56 but has dipped all the way down to 51.5 as of Thursday afternoon.
- I still lean toward the Under, as this game should feature plenty of running and solid defense.
Missouri vs Alabama betting trend to know
The Tigers have hit the 1H game total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 57% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Missouri vs Alabama.
Missouri vs Alabama game info
| Location: | Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-26, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Missouri vs Alabama latest injuries
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