Missouri vs Alabama Predictions, Picks, and Best Bets: Tigers Come to Play in Tuscaloosa

Alabama has fallen apart at the seams under first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer, and we expect the Missouri Tigers to give them more trouble on Saturday as 17-point underdogs.

Andrew Caley - Senior Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Andrew Caley • Senior Betting Analyst
Oct 26, 2024 • 12:47 ET • 4 min read
Information icon

This article contains predictions for an old game!

Latest NCAAF Picks
Luther Burden III Missouri Tigers NCAAF
Photo By - Imagn Images. Pictured: Missouri Tiger wide receiver Luther Burden III in NCAAF action.

A stunning loss to Vanderbilt was followed by a tough defeat at Tennessee, and suddenly, the Alabama Crimson Tide's College Football Playoff hopes hang by a thread heading into today's matchup vs. the Missouri Tigers at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

My Missouri vs. Alabama predictions believe the 6-1 Tigers are getting too many points, and I'll break it all down in my latest college football picks for October 26, with kickoff at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC

For more on this game, check out Jason Ence's Missouri vs. Alabama prop picks.

Missouri vs Alabama prediction and best bet

My best bet
Missouri +16.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

Alabama’s dreams of winning the SEC were dashed following the loss to Tennessee, and its College Football Playoff hopes aren’t far behind. 

It's unlikely a three-loss team advances to the CFP this season, particularly when you consider that there are seven other SEC teams ahead of Bama in the conference standings. 

The issues that have held Alabama back all season showed up in the Tennessee loss. The Tide needed better offensive line play, and they couldn’t run the ball consistently — now ranking 56th in offensive success on rushes. The Vols were able to limit the explosive plays that have been the lifeblood of this Alabama offense.

Meanwhile, Dylan Sampson shredded a defense that now ranks 50th in success rate vs. the rush, while Nico Iamaleava was able to hit some big plays through the air against a shaky Bama secondary. 

Although the 6-1 Tigers haven't needed a fourth-quarter comeback to beat Auburn 21-17 last week, the advanced numbers say this is still a solid Missouri team. That's particularly the case on defense, where they rank seventh in success rate.

The line initially opened around Alabama -14, but after Missouri's injury report came out — including key players like running back Nate Noel and quarterback Brady Cook — it spiked as high as -17 at some sportsbooks. However, I believe that's an overreaction.

Missouri has a solid backup QB in Marcus Carroll, who has rushed for 321 yards at nearly five yards per carry. My gut feeling is that Cook will tough it out, and if he's on the field, he'll be throwing to one of the best wide receiver groups in the nation.

This is too many points to lay with Alabama at this point, as the Tide have proven they are a deeply flawed team. Hell, the Tide haven’t won an SEC game by more than a touchdown.

Kalen DeBoer needs to establish the run in this one, and I'm not sure that changes much in this matchup. Take the points with the Tigers.

Missouri vs Alabama same-game parlay (SGP)

Missouri +16.5

Under 26.5 first-half total

Luther Burden III anytime touchdown

Alabama can’t think that letting Jalen Milroe drop back and huck the ball up 50 times is the way for this offense to be successful, so I expect more running from the Tide in this one. 

Unfortunately, the run defense has been a massive strength of Missouri's, as the Tigers rank 19th in EPA per rush and are allowing just 3.5 yards per carry.

Even if Noel is out, Missouri should try to establish its ground game. Tennessee and Vanderbilt both had success running the football against Alabama, and lots of running will mean the clock constantly moving.

I was initially looking for a Marcus Carroll anytime touchdown, but we probably won’t be offered that market until Noel’s status is confirmed. Instead, I’ll back Luther Burden III to reach paydirt. Projected to be one of the top wideouts picked in next April’s NFL Draft, the Tigers WR boasts four receiving TDs already this season, including another two scored on the ground.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Best Missouri vs Alabama bonus

Up to $1,500 in bonus bet insurance at BetMGM

Make your football plays at BetMGM, which is offering new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets (if your first bet doesn't win)!

Sign up now to join the King of Sportsbooks, or learn more with our comprehensive BetMGM sportsbook review.

Eligible U.S. locations only. Also, see our full list of BetMGM bonus codes.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Missouri vs Alabama odds

Missouri vs Alabama live odds

Missouri vs Alabama opening odds

  • Missouri vs. Alabama spread: Alabama -14
  • Missouri vs. Alabama moneyline: Missouri +425, Alabama -575
  • Missouri vs. Alabama Over/Under: 56

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Missouri vs Alabama spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Alabama opened this SEC matchup as two-touchdown favorites, with the line move to -17 following Missouri's early-week injury report. 
  • The Crimson Tide are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.
  • The total hit the board at 56 but has dipped all the way down to 51.5 as of Thursday afternoon.
  • I still lean toward the Under, as this game should feature plenty of running and solid defense.

Missouri vs Alabama betting trend to know

The Tigers have hit the 1H game total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 57% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Missouri vs Alabama.

Missouri vs Alabama game info

Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
Date: Saturday, 10-26, 2024
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC

Missouri vs Alabama latest injuries

Missouri vs Alabama weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

Pages related to this topic

Senior Betting Analyst

When his dreams of becoming the next Steve Nash died, all Andrew “Taco” Caley wanted to do was write about sports, something he’s been doing at Covers for more than a decade. A Journalism School grad from Holland College in Charlottetown, PEI, Andrew previously worked at The Chronicle Herald and Star Metro, but knew in his heart that his future lay in sports. He began at Covers as a news editor and has now done everything under the sun when it comes to content. His work has been seen on TSN, Sportsnet, VSiN, and CBS.

These days Andrew’s betting expertise is focused on his favorite teams – the Toronto Blue Jays and Toronto Raptors. He’s also an avid college football fan and bettor. He can’t be friends with you if you don’t appreciate a Service Academy Under. You can also call him Covers’ Sixth Man, as he regularly steps up to guest host Before You Bet and our MLB and NCAAF release shows.

The sportsbook where he does the bulk of his betting is bet365 thanks to its numerous prop betting options and competitive odds. His best advice? Find the balance between the numbers and what you see on the playing field. Then find the best price using multiple books. And don’t ask him where the nickname Taco comes from. It’s not an interesting story. Seriously.

Popular Content

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo