Missouri vs Texas A&M Player Props & Best Bets: Burden Finds End Zone Multiple Times

Prop bet #1: Luther Burden 2+ touchdowns

+700 at BetMGM

There's value in the solo touchdown at plus money, but I calculated a slightly bigger edge on the junior WR to score twice, so I made this number +652.

Luther Burden has not had the best game he'll have this season. I know this because I know what he did a season ago. With that said, he comes into this game with momentum. 

Burden scored two TDs last week in the double overtime win against Vanderbilt, a performance backed up by a 100+ yard receiving game the week before against Boston College. Burden has found the end zone in all but one game this season, and he's facing a pretty poor passing defense here.

Texas A&M ranks 90th overall in EPA defense per dropback, with each team it's faced able to throw the ball on it. Even more troubling for A&M is the Aggies rank in the Bottom 35% of explosiveness allowed via the pass. That's all bad news when facing one of the most talented pass catchers in the SEC.

I expect this game to be competitive throughout. When that happens, Burden gets more looks as a focal point of trust. This is just too good of a number to pass up on a talented player with such a nice matchup here.

Prop bet #2: Le'Veon Moss Under 69.5 rushing yards

-115 at BetMGM

Multiple pieces led me to this spot. Let's start with the element of my projections, which make this number closer to 62.5 than what we have.

Moss hasn't been productive, nor has he shown much explosiveness. He ranks in the 100s in both categories, including 122 yards per carry. I think his volume could be reduced here for two reasons too: 

1. His quarterback, Marcell Reed, has shown the capability to add more explosiveness to his rushing game, meaning more designed runs.
2. I expect A&M to chase the game late, meaning it won't have the game flow to wait around and run the ball.

A last feather in our cap is the Tigers' ability to do well in opposing backfields this season. They'll come into this matchup ranking fourth in the SEC in tackles for a loss.

Prop bet #3: Brady Cook Over 1.5 passing touchdowns

+115 at BetMGM

This is a double-down of my thinking when backing Burden to score twice and another fade of the Texas A&M passing defense. This number should be close to a coin flip.

Again, the prevailing thinking here is A&M's rushing defense will be good enough — particularly in the red zone — to make Missouri throw the ball more.

The Aggies' pass defense ranks ninth in the SEC in touchdowns allowed and eighth in the conference in passing yards allowed. They've not been truly tested either, and quarterback Brady Cook will be the most versatile pass-thrower they've faced.

The Aggies' schedule has benefited them from facing QBs who have yet to display much of a vertical threat. Texas A&M's biggest test of the year against Riley Leonard came against a QB with one of the lowest ADOTs in the country.

When it was finally tested last week by a true vertical threat against Arkansas and Taylen Green, they were lit up at times, giving up just over 270 passing yards. From any objective standpoint, Cook is more talented than Green and has more dangerous weapons around him. Logically, he'll have even more success.