North Carolina vs West Virginia Prediction: Mayo Bowl Odds and Picks

The Duke’s Mayo Bowl has become one of the more fun newer bowl games. Instead of getting showered with Gatorade, the winning coach gets a mayonnaise bath.

Unfortunately, one of the teams in this year’s matchup may not be as excited as the other when it comes to getting that mayo bath.

It was another disappointing season for the North Carolina Tar Heels, who — despite having one of the nation’s top quarterbacks in Drake Maye — stumbled down the stretch and once again missed out on the ACC title game. On the other hand, the West Virginia Mountaineers exceeded expectations on their way to an eight-win season. 

The motivation of both teams is clear, according to the college football odds, with the Mountaineers laying nearly a touchdown in this bowl game.

I break down the Duke’s Mayo Bowl and bring you the best bet in my college football picks and predictions for North Carolina vs. West Virginia on Wednesday, December 27. 

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North Carolina vs West Virginia best odds

North Carolina vs West Virginia picks and predictions

College football can be funny in the sense that an 8-4 season can be deemed a failure for one school and a success for another. Well, that’s exactly the case when North Carolina takes on West Virginia in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.

The Tar Heels were led by a potential Top 3 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, Drake Maye. But Maye’s arm wasn’t enough to get the Tar Heels where they wanted to go. 

North Carolina started the season winning six straight games and had its eyes set on the ACC title game. But then the Tar Heels suffered a stunning defeat to the Virginia Cavaliers, in a game where UNC was a massive 24-point favorite.

The Tar Heels never really recovered, losing four of their final six games. They were the favorites in three of those four games.

Maye wasn’t perfect but was certainly the bright spot of this team. However, his talent wasn’t enough to overcome the flaws of this UNC roster. Particularly, an inconsistent defense that ranks 102nd in yards allowed per game when facing FBS opponents and gave up a whopping 37.2 points per game over their last six conference games.

The Tar Heels also got burned by big plays, ranking 82nd in scrimmage plays allowed of 20+ yards and they were undisciplined ranking 109th in penalties per game.

And now, they won’t have Maye to cover up those flaws, who has not surprisingly declared for the NFL Draft. 

That sets things up well for a West Virginia team that took real steps forward under Neal Brown this season.

Not much was expected out of the Mountaineers this season, however, they ended up winning eight games. The offense is balanced with dual-threat QB Garrett Greene and the defense is underrated. 

Greene leads a WVU rushing attack that ranked third in the country rumbling for 234.3 yards per game and has three players, including Greene who rushed for more than 700 yards this season. Greene also threw for 2,178 yards with a solid 8.6 yards per attempt.

Greene and Co. will be too much for the North Carolina defense to handle and with UNC backup Conner Harrell only attempting 21 career passes I don’t mind laying the points with the Mountaineers here. That said, take me home with the Over on the West Virginia Team Total.

My best bet: West Virginia team total Over 31.5 (+102 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

North Carolina vs West Virginia spread and Over/Under analysis

West Virginia opened the Duke’s Mayo Bowl as 3-point favorites. This was likely under the assumption that Drake Maye would not play in this game. 

But then four other starters also declared for the NFL Draft, including center Corey Gaynor and wide receiver Tez Walker, while three other starters will miss this bowl game due to injuries. So, it was no surprise to see those 3s quickly snatched up and the line move to 5.5 and then 6.5 as of Dec. 20. 

As I stated above, I don’t hate the Mountaineers up to the current number of 6.5, particularly considering the Tar Heels QB has attempted just 21 passes going against an underrated WVU defense.

When it comes to the total that hit the board at 57, the early action has been on the Under, with the new number sitting at 54.5 as of writing this.

Since I like West Virginia to do a fair amount of scoring in this one, I would lean toward the full game Over as well. But it won’t be an official play considering all of the pieces North Carolina is missing on offense, not to mention you have to question what the Tar Heels’ motivation will be to play in this bowl as well. 

North Carolina vs West Virginia betting trend to know

West Virginia has hit the Game Total Over in six of its last seven games for +4.9 units. Find more college football betting trends for North Carolina vs West Virginia.

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