Notre Dame vs Duke Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Defenses Waste No Time Leaving Mark in Durham

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish may feel like this tonight is March 18. Losing to the Ohio State Buckeyes because only 10 defenders took the field on Ohio State’s game-winning touchdown can have the same mental effect as a pile of whiskey shots on St. Patrick’s Day. And now Notre Dame has to take that hangover to face the Duke Blue Devils in what may be the biggest football game in Duke history.

Will the Irish focus in time to avoid a college football odds upset to the Blue Devils? Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Notre Dame vs. Duke on Saturday, September 30.

Notre Dame vs Duke best odds

Notre Dame vs Duke picks and predictions

The defenses will dictate this game. With two former defensive coordinators in their second seasons as head coaches, a pair forever linked even if they never coached together, easing into this Top-20 tilt may be only natural.

Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman has emphasized an aggressive in-game approach this season, going for it on multiple fourth downs in opponent territory rather than attempting a field goal. That is the kind of behavior one can expect from a defensive-coordinator-turned-head-coach learning from his rookie-year mistakes.

But on the road, with a team that was undoubtedly mentally cloudy to start the week, Freeman may revert to his inner wants as a former defensive coordinator and slow the game down.

More precisely, he will want to shorten the game, and shortening this game will play to the two best units on the field, the two defenses. The Irish first quarter last week against Ohio State took 29 real-time minutes. The first half took an hour and 16 minutes. Blink and it could be halftime this Saturday night.

Notre Dame just shut down Ohio State, holding the Buckeyes to 240 yards on 49 plays before their game-winning drive and excluding their singular big play, a 61-yard touchdown rush, the only big-play score the Irish have allowed this season. Duke quarterback Riley Leonard may be better than Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord, but the rest of the Blue Devils offense is less threatening than the Buckeyes.

And Leonard may be hesitant early. Well, Leonard and Duke head coach Mike Elko. While they upset Clemson to open the season, there were few expectations afoot at that point. The Blue Devils were 12-point underdogs. As soon as that Labor Day game was competitive, Duke had exceeded preseason expectations.

Pressure makes for conservative play, especially early. That is just human nature. Risk averse play calls, particularly from a former defensive coordinator who has never been in this position, will help further an early Under thought.

Things may get chaotic late. The game is too big not to. The quarterbacks are too good not to eventually make plays. But early? With Notre Dame effectively hungover? Expect little in the first half, only to create drama in the second half.

Statistically, these are two of the best teams in the country. Their weaknesses are few; the Irish special teams have been lacking, while the Blue Devils defense allows opponents to succeed on 41.3% of their rushing plays, No. 94 in the country.

Both those thoughts should further these Under intentions. Furthermore, Duke’s offense succeeds passing the ball — defining success in terms of making an appropriate gain toward a first down — only 36.7% of the time.

A defense somewhat vulnerable to the rush complemented by an offense somewhat struggling to throw cements these Under intentions, though still focusing on before halftime so as to protect from any late-game craziness innate to a Top-20 matchup in front of a raucous crowd.

My best bet: Under 27.5 first half (-115 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Notre Dame vs Duke same-game parlay

Under 27.5 first half

Highest-scoring half: second half

Holden Staes anytime TD

+800 at DraftKings

Look back to Duke’s season-opening win against Clemson. The drama of the Blue Devils’ upset can cloud the memory of some of that game flow.

The Tigers led 7-6 at halftime. They had missed a field goal, but otherwise, it was simply a sluggish first half. And then, fireworks. Duke put up 22 points in the second half, the Wallace Stadium crowd getting more and more amped up at the thought of a national-profile victory. Clemson put together three quality drives, failing to tally any points of course, but that was more a Dabo Swinney problem than something Notre Dame should worry about.

If Saturday night opens slowly, things may dial up after halftime.

The Irish dialing things up should lead to a scoring chance for sophomore tight end Holden Staes. Notre Dame will almost certainly be without junior receiver Jayden Thomas. Let’s be clear: Thomas is a receiver. About half the non-NBC broadcasts featuring Notre Dame refer to him as a tight end. But that gives an idea of his body type and usage.

If a hamstring worry sidelines Thomas this weekend, Staes should be the beneficiary, even if genuinely a tight end. He has four touchdowns this season despite not being targeted last week. Irish offensive coordinator Gerad Parker possibly over-compensating for that diminished role for Staes a week ago would best show up in the end zone, a touchdown the tangible reward for not blinking when minimized in the Ohio State game plan.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Notre Dame vs Duke spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread opened as low as -2 in Notre Dame’s favor on Sunday, but it quickly bumped up to -4 and reached -5.5 early in the week, hardly wavering afterward. The total moved similarly, hitting the market at 54.5 and dropping to 52 within minutes. Some books have clung to 53 and 52.5 this week.

The 5.5-point spread is tricky, obviously, but here is where it may best fit to acknowledge the Irish have won 29 straight regular-season games against ACC opponents.

Notre Dame vs Duke betting trend to know

Duke is 3-0 against the spread this season against FBS opponents. Find more college football betting trends for Notre Dame vs Duke.

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