These are not your usual Navy Midshipmen. They are still running the traditional triple-option, but with a potent passing attack that has produced seven explosive scores this season. As the Notre Dame Fighting Irish defense has to fight through injuries, that dual-threat aspect of the Midshipmen could put this game on tilt.
Normally, the Irish ready for a low-scoring misery in this annual matchup, but my Notre Dame vs. Navy predictions expect a modest scoring output, these free college football picks betting on the Over before kickoff at 12 ET on Saturday, October 26.
Notre Dame vs Navy prediction and best bet
Who will win Notre Dame vs Navy?
As good as the Navy Midshipmen has been this season, jumping out to a 7-0 start that has created plenty of headlines hoping for back-to-back weeks of Army vs. Navy in December, no one should expect the Midshipmen to spring this upset. The talent gap is simply too great, even more than the gap between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Northern Illinois.
There is a reason the Irish have won 11 of the last 12 in this annual matchup (they did not play in 2020).
To narrow the focus to pertinent context, the Irish have given up six and three points in two of the three matchups with Marcus Freeman on the coaching staff. The 2022 exception of 32 Midshipmen points was still never close. Notre Dame led 35-13 at halftime and then pulled off the gas, rather intentionally running a conservative offense because Navy's only hope at a comeback would need multiple Irish mistakes. So instead, Notre Dame eased back and let the scoreboard appear close thanks to a Midshipmen touchdown with just 1:21 left.
All of which is to say: The Irish have not been in a competitive game with Navy since Freeman's arrival. This game may be more of a worry, but it should still go Notre Dame's way.
My best bet
Over 51.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
When Navy is running a good version of its usual triple-option offense, Notre Dame prepares as if it may have only eight possessions in this matchup. The Irish expect the Midshipmen to control the ball for half the first quarter. This was the rare matchup former Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly would take the ball after winning the coin toss, an attempt to get a lead before Navy could eat up clock.
The current version of the Midshipmen triple-option offense is much better than "good." In five FBS games, the Midshipmen have scored seven explosive passing touchdowns. Even for a traditional offense, that would be a rate worth nodding at.
Combining a genuine passing attack — quarterback Blake Horvath is averaging a reasonable 148 passing yards per game on 12 attempts while completing 63.9% of his passes — with Navy’s usual relentlessness has the offense ranked No. 15 in expected points added (EPA) per snap, per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com. It is no longer simply a plodding but inevitable offense. It is now explosive and efficient.
Notre Dame’s defense has suffered a handful of injuries, most recently and notably to junior All-American cornerback Benjamin Morrison. The intricacies of the triple-option offense with an over-the-top threat will expose those younger replacements.
On the other side of the ball, the Irish offense goes as its running game goes, which should have an easier time against an undersized Navy defensive line. Notre Dame already ranks No. 5 in the country in EPA per rush, a number escalated by the big plays Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price enjoy with decent enough frequency.
When the Irish offensive line opens marginal holes at the first level of Navy’s defense, Love and Price will turn plenty of runs into races against the outpaced second level.
Both these offenses turn quality drives into points, with Notre Dame No. 11 in the country and Navy at No. 2. Not that the defenses are pushovers in those moments, but with mobile quarterbacks capable of converting inside the 10-yard line, the combinations of efficient and explosive should result in effective finishes.
Notre Dame vs Navy same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 51.5
Blake Horvath anytime touchdown
Riley Leonard anytime touchdown
Jeremiyah Love anytime touchdown
Notre Dame moneyline
Piling on three different touchdown scorers here is a little ambitious, absolutely — but Horvath has scored in five of his six FBS games this season, tallying 10 scores in those five games. Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard has rushed for at least one touchdown in each of his last six games (10 total scores in that stretch), and Love has run for exactly one score in each of seven games this season.
These three have noses for the end zone and opportunities aplenty. In a game that could turn into a modest shootout, making the most of every moment at the goal line will become imperative — and these are the three ballcarriers to trust with those chances.
Adding the Notre Dame moneyline to this same-game parlay may look like a piece of greed, risking an Irish loss as the only failing piece of the SGP, but just know that including that greed raises the payout by 17%.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Notre Dame vs Navy odds
Notre Dame vs Navy live odds
Notre Dame vs Navy opening odds
- Notre Dame vs. Navy spread: Navy +13.5
- Notre Dame vs. Navy moneyline: Notre Dame -500, Navy +375
- Notre Dame vs. Navy Over/Under: 51.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Notre Dame vs Navy spread and Over/Under analysis
- While some stale look-ahead lines on Friday favored Notre Dame by 11.5, the Irish blowout of Georgia Tech impressed bookmakers more than Navy’s rout of Charlotte did, spiking this opener to -14 at Sunday’s first genuine line.
- For much of the early week, the money poured in on Notre Dame, knocking this spread down to -12.5 by the end of Sunday, where it remained until Thursday morning, at which point it rose back to -13.5 or -14.0, depending on the sportsbook.
- The true Sunday opener was at 55.5, a number knocked down within an hour, sitting at 52 from Sunday midafternoon into Tuesday evening, then climbing to 52.5.
- The fall, to our advantage, to 51 came only on Thursday morning, some books rebounding to 51.5.
Notre Dame vs Navy betting trend to know
All six of Navy’s games this season have gone Over their totals, as have two of Notre Dame’s last three and three of its last five. Find more college football betting trends for Notre Dame vs Navy.
Notre Dame vs Navy game info
| Location: | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-26, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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