Top-5 matchups bring drama... but not necessarily entertainment. When the Ohio State Buckeyes travel to Happy Valley to face the Penn State Nittany Lions, the drama should follow.
Combine OSU's current offensive line struggles with the quarterback worries of the home side, and my Ohio State vs. Penn State predictions see a low-scoring game coming today.
Read on to see why the Under highlights my best college football picks for the biggest game of Week 10, kicking off at noon ET from University Park and broadcast on FOX.
For more picks for this game, check out our Ohio State vs. Penn State prop picks!
Ohio State vs Penn State prediction and best bet
My best bet
Under 45.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Two weeks ago, Ohio State lost starting left tackle Josh Simmons for the season to a knee injury. Last week, new starting left tackle Zen Michalski struggled and then exited with his own lower-body injury. Moving left guard Donovan Jackson out to left tackle did not help matters.
No matter what alignment the Buckeyes trot out along the offensive line on Saturday, it will be a worrying one — particularly against a top-tier defensive line like Penn State’s.
Nittany Lions ends Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton will stress any replacement tackle; what was once an Ohio State strength in Simmons is now an active problem.
The Buckeyes ran for just 74 yards on 29 carries (sacks adjusted) against Nebraska last week, another stout defensive line.
Another performance like that, and Ohio State could again struggle on third downs after converting just one of 10 attempts last week. If not for explosive pass plays notching the first two Buckeyes’ touchdowns — a 40-yard pass to Carnell Tate and a 60-yard pass to Jeremiah Smith — Ohio State’s national title hopes could have died last weekend.
Penn State is far better at defending the pass than Nebraska is. If the Buckeyes again cannot run the ball, their passing game will suffer as well.
On the other side of the ball, Nittany Lions’ quarterback Drew Allar left the win at Wisconsin with a seeming leg injury. Penn State head coach James Franklin could not be less informative about Allar’s health, but he was seen practicing on Wednesday. Most likely, Allar plays but is not entirely mobile.
Allar is not a dual-threat quarterback, but if Ohio State’s No.1 SP+ ranked defense knows he is limited in any regard, its job will be that much easier.
Both head coaches are far from aggressive in big games. Both teams have better defenses than offenses. And now both offenses may be hamstrung a bit. Expect a conservative afternoon that still yields plenty of drama, just not necessarily drama driven by fireworks.
Ohio State vs Penn State same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 45.5
Ohio State moneyline
Will Howard anytime touchdown
Ohio State has won the last seven matchups with Penn State, in part because the Buckeyes simply have a more talented roster. Nittany Lions fans would posit James Franklin also is not a good coach in big games, not that their counterparts firmly believe in Ryan Day. Then again, Day has not lost to Franklin.
Some further reason to believe in OSU this weekend stems from its quarterback, Will Howard. A Pennsylvania native, Howard made it a point this week to point out his home state flagship did not recruit him.
He has plenty of big-game experience, even if Kansas State never broke through to the national consciousness during his time in the Big 12. He has excelled in road games at Texas, at Missouri, at West Virginia and, frankly, at Oregon. Happy Valley will not bother Howard.
He's rushed for five touchdowns this season, and leaning on him near the goal line could help cover up the offensive-line weaknesses, instead allowing the Buckeyes running backs to chip at the Nittany Lions’ defensive front seven.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Ohio State vs Penn State odds
Ohio State vs Penn State live odds
Ohio State vs Penn State opening odds
- Ohio State vs. Penn State spread: Penn State +4
- Ohio State vs. Penn State moneyline: Ohio State -185, Penn State +150
- Ohio State vs. Penn State Over/Under: 47.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Ohio State vs Penn State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Summer lookaheads considered Ohio State a 3-point favorite before jumping to -4.5 in mid-June, where this line remained into August, most sportsbooks then returning to -3.5 for as long as they kept this line up into the season.
- When Sunday’s first true lines opened, the Buckeyes were again 3-point favorites, and again the line spiked, quickly climbing to -4 on Sunday before then slipping back to -3.5 on Wednesday.
- Sunday’s total opened at 46.5 before jumping to 47.5, holding there for about 24 hours before falling to 46.5 on Monday and 45.5 on Tuesday.
- Obviously, catching 45.5 is crucial, given the key number value of 45.
Ohio State vs Penn State betting trend to know
Four of the five Ryan Day vs. James Franklin matchups have gone Under their totals. Find more college football betting trends for Ohio State vs Penn State.
Ohio State vs Penn State game info
| Location: | Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-2, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Ohio State vs Penn State latest injuries
Ohio State vs Penn State weather
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