The Ohio State Buckeyes have finally arrived. This version of the Buckeyes strikes fear into anyone in their way, an unfortunate position for the Texas Longhorns to now be in.
Entering the season, there were few rosters with more talent than the Longhorns’ array. That is still true now, but one of those just happens to be their Cotton Bowl opponent.
These Ohio State vs. Texas predictions and college football picks will focus on the Buckeyes’ offense. Kickoff comes at 7:30 p.m. ET on Friday, January 10.
Ohio State vs Texas props for the Cotton Bowl
Jeremiah Smith 2+ touchdowns (+300 at BetMGM)- Will Howard anytime touchdown (+250 at BetMGM)
Quintrevion Wisner Under 60.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 1-9.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Ohio State vs Texas Cotton Bowl player props
Prop bet #1: Jeremiah Smith 2+ touchdowns
Before the Rose Bowl, this same bet was listed at +550 at BetMGM.
And suggesting this same bet began with, “Obviously, this is aggressive. You see the payout and know as much immediately. It is especially aggressive since Smith has caught multiple touchdown passes in just two of 13 games, his first and last ones. But doing so against Tennessee warrants notice.”
Doesn’t seem so aggressive now, does it? Smith cashed this prop for the second Playoff game in a row, last doing so in the first half against Oregon.
The Ducks’ pass defense ranks No. 4 in the country in terms of expected points added (EPA) per dropback against, just ahead of the Volunteers’ at No. 5.
Take a guess who is No. 3. Yep, the Texas Longhorns.
It might sound absurd to bet on this for a third Playoff game in a row, against an even better defense. However, no one can stop Jeremiah Smith right now.
The Ohio State Buckeyes have cut loose. Quarterback Will Howard has gone 41-of-55 (74.5%) in the two Playoff games, averaging 11.45 yards per pass attempt, leaps and bounds ahead of his regular-season average of 9.11 yards per pass attempt.
The Buckeyes’ playing this aggressively emphasizes Smith. Good luck, Texas.
Prop bet #2: Will Howard anytime touchdown
Consider this bet a hedge against Smith finding the end zone multiple times. Jeremiah Smith is Ohio State’s best long-ball threat, creating explosive plays almost every time he touches the ball, averaging 22.3 yards per catch in the Playoff.
If he is tracked down near the goal line or if the Buckeyes piece together a sustainable drive, there will be sudden value on Will Howard crossing the goal line. He has done so in seven of 14 games this season, and that does not count fumbling inches away from the end zone at Penn State.
For predictive concerns, note Howard got that play call to the pylon in a one-score game. He also scored at Oregon in their regular-season matchup. Of Ohio State’s four one-score games, two of them featured Howard either scoring or having as close a chance at scoring as imaginable.
If the Buckeyes are blowing out the Longhorns, it will be partly because Jeremiah Smith is running wild. If this game remains close, Howard should be a goal-line priority.
Prop bet #3: Quintrevion Wisner Under 60.5 rushing yards
Quintrevion Wisner has fallen short of this prop in five of the last nine games, including two of the last three.
Georgia’s rush defense is known. Arizona State’s was underappreciated. Ohio State's is better than either of them. The Buckeyes rank No. 3 in EPA per rush against and No. 12 in defensive success rate against the rush, per cfb-graphs.
That alone should scare off any faith in Wisner on Friday night, but then factor in possible game states. The way Ohio State’s offense is clicking right now, Texas could feel quick pressure to keep up.
A few struggling rushes would force Steve Sarkisian to commit to the pass. At that point, Wisner’s rushing yards prop would be thoroughly doomed.
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