Raise your hand if you picked the BYU Cougars to be undefeated through the season's first seven weeks.
No one? Well, that’s exactly what Kalani Sitake’s team is, sitting with a perfect record atop the Big 12 standings. Their Week 8 opponent, the Oklahoma State Cowboys, were picked to be near the top of the standings in the preseason but instead are at the bottom, going winless in conference play. My Oklahoma State vs. BYU predictions like the Cougars to stay hot.
Read on for my college football picks for Friday, October 18.
Oklahoma State vs BYU prediction and best bet
My best bet
BYU -9.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
As if the Oklahoma State Cowboys’ season could go any worse, head coach Mike Gundy suffered an eye injury during the bye week after being head-butted by a cow.
Yep, you read that right.
It’s been that kind of year for the Cowboys, who have fallen flat on preseason expectations with three straight losses and questions about the coaching staff from top to bottom.
There’s now a quarterback controversy as the rumor mill is swirling that seventh-year signal caller Alan Bowman (12 touchdowns, eight interceptions) will be benched in favor of Garret Rangel. Gundy hasn’t said anything publicly, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he makes a change. His offense ranks 103rd in success rate and hasn’t eclipsed 20 points in any of the last three games.
The BYU Cougars have had a direct inverse season as their Week 8 opponent, rising from preseason obscurity to conference front-runner after six straight victories to begin the 2024 campaign.
This is a revenge spot for Kalani Sitake’s squad, who fell short of a bowl game last year thanks to a Thanksgiving weekend loss to Oklahoma State in double overtime. “That was a sour taste and a sore spot for us, so this is a chance for us to try to make things right,” Sitake said this week.
BYU defensive coordinator Jay Hill has become a hot name in this upcoming coaching carousel, leading a dramatic defensive improvement that sees the Cougars ranking 19th in EPA per play and 28th in success rate.
Last year’s Doak Walker Award winner, Ollie Gordon, hasn’t rushed for more than 76 yards in a game since the opener. The Pokes haven’t moved the ball at all on the ground (122nd in EPA per rush, 131st in rushing success rate) and it’s difficult to see that changing for a repeat of last year’s meeting when Gordon ran wild in the second half.
Oklahoma State is still searching for answers and it’s hard to see this being the spot where everything clicks.
BYU will be fired up playing at home for a night game at LaVell Edwards Stadium, which is a very difficult venue to play in for visiting teams. I don’t know if the bye week was a good thing for the Pokes, who had to stew about three losses, a quarterback controversy, and a coach who couldn’t make his media availabilities in person because he lost a fight with a cow.
Oklahoma State vs BYU same-game parlay (SGP)
BYU -9.5
LJ Martin anytime touchdown
Darius Lassiter 60+ receiving yards
BYU has had a lot of injuries in the backfield but returned to health a week ago when the team’s top two ball carriers, LJ Martin and Hinckley Ropati, returned to the field.
Martin might be this team’s best offensive player and made an immediate impact against Arizona, handling 11 carries for 49 yards and a score while catching three passes for 46 yards and another score last week. Oklahoma State has been poor against the rush (104th in EPA, 132nd in explosiveness), so this qualifies as a good matchup.
Darius Lassiter has emerged as quarterback Jake Retzlaff’s top receiving threat, leading the Cougars in targets (27), receptions (16), yards (232), and yards per route run (2.97) across the last three games. He’s also found the end zone twice in that span and I like him to do so yet again against an Oklahoma State defense that looks lost again this season under soon-to-be-canned defensive coordinator Bryan Nardo.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Oklahoma State vs BYU odds
Oklahoma State vs BYU live odds
Oklahoma State vs BYU opening odds
- Oklahoma State vs. BYU spread: BYU -7.5
- Oklahoma State vs. BYU moneyline: Oklahoma State +270, BYU -350
- Oklahoma State vs. BYU Over/Under: 55.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Oklahoma State vs BYU spread and Over/Under analysis
- BYU has been an ATM against Big 12 opponents, going 5-0 ATS in its last five conference games.
- Not only is BYU 4-0 ATS in its last four home games, but it also has an average cover margin of 17.5 points while doing so.
- Oklahoma State has trended to the Over (4-2 O/U in its last six away games) while BYU is 8-4 O/U against the First-Half Total in its last 12 games. Currently, the First Half total is set at 26.5 at BetMGM.
Oklahoma State vs BYU betting trend to know
BYU has covered the spread in eight straight games overall and is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games. Find more college football betting trends for Oklahoma State vs BYU.
Oklahoma State vs BYU game info
| Location: | LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT |
| Date: | Friday, 10-18, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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