We get an intriguing mid-week college football matchup under the lights as the Marshall Thundering Herd play host to the Georgia State Panthers.
The Herd have been a great ATS bet this season and are nearly double-digit home favorites for this matchup but my Marshall vs. Georgia State predictions are much more interested in the total.
Here are my college football picks for this Sun Belt battle on Thursday, Oct. 17.
Georgia State vs Marshall prediction and best bet
My best bet
Over 51.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Both the Georgia State Panthers and the Marshall Thundering Herd need a win heading into this Sun Belt East divisional matchup.
The Panthers were feeling pretty good about themselves following a huge upset win over Vanderbilt (a win that looks better with each passing week), but the hangover from that win has lasted two weeks as Georgia State has dropped their first two conference games, both as home favorites.
Meanwhile, Marshall had a mini two-game winning streak snapped in a gut-wrenching fashion as the Herd coughed up a 23-3 lead to Georgia Southern, with the Eagles scoring 21 straight points in the fourth quarter to pull out a 24-23 win.
Despite the tough loss, Marshall enters this game as a nearly double-digit favorite, but I won't concern myself with the spread.
This is a matchup of two Sun Belt East teams that need a win, and with both defenses struggling, we could see some scoring on Thursday night.
Part of the reason Marshall's laying so many points here is because of A.J. Turner and the run game. Turner has rumbled for 540 yards while averaging a ridiculous 9.6 yards per carry this season. Turner and the Herd will now face a Georgia State defense that's been gashed by the run.
The Panthers rank 110th in defensive success rate and 113th in success rate vs. the rush while ranking 116th in EPA/rush. Turner and this Marshall rushing attack shouldn’t have too many problems moving the ball.
Meanwhile, we're used to Marshall having a stout defense, but that isn’t the case in 2024. The Herd aren’t much better than the Panthers, in fact, ranking 97th in defensive success rate. Now, the Panthers are a pass-first team, but don’t be surprised if they hand the ball to Freddie Brock a few more times to open things up for quarterback Christian Veilleux.
This total has dropped a bit since it hit the board, but I think this current number is too low. Give me the Over in what will be a surprise Sun Belt shootout on Thursday night.
Georgia State vs Marshall same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 51.5
Freddie Brock anytime touchdown
A.J. Turner anytime touchdown
I’m keeping this SGP pretty straightforward. This game will go Over the total because I believe both teams will not only be effective at running the football but both will have some explosive plays in the run game as well, and that will be fueled by each team’s respective top back.
For Georgia State, that's Freddie Brock. The sophomore back has still run for 306 yards and 5.0 yards per carry in this pass-heavy Georgia State offense. He’s also proved he can be a threat out of the backfield in the passing game, catching three balls for 25 yards in last week’s loss to Old Dominion. He has three total TDs this season and has found the end zone in three of the last four games.
On the other side, it’s all about A.J. Turner. As noted, his numbers are ridiculous, and he leads the conference in yards and yards per carry. That said, he’s only found the end zone twice on the ground this season.
However, his ability to hit a home run at any time will pay off against a struggling Panthers run defense. I like him to go Over his rushing yard prop as well, but I bet he breaks off a big one for a score.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Georgia State vs Marshall odds
Georgia State vs Marshall live odds
Georgia State vs Marshall opening odds
- Georgia State vs. Marshall spread: Marshall -9
- Georgia State vs. Marshall moneyline: Georgia State +300, Marshall -380
- Georgia State vs. Marshall Over/Under: 53.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Georgia State vs Marshall spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread for this Sun Belt matchup opened with Marshall as a 9-point home favorite. It briefly dipped to 8.5 but has since moved back to the opening number with some 9.5s on the board.
- I would lean toward Marshall. Not only are the Herd at home, but they should stampede all over this Georgia State run defense. While I like the Panthers to contribute with some scoring as well, they aren't as well equipped to take advantage of their opponent's weakness.
- The total hit the board at 53.5 and has been bet down to 51.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.
- Despite this line move, I still like the Over. While Marshall doesn't play at a break-neck pace, their explosive nature in the run game should pay off. Georgia State ranks 20th in seconds per play, so we should see a few extra possessions in a game featuring shaky defense on both sides.
Georgia State vs Marshall betting trend to know
Marshall has covered the spread in five of their last seven games at home for +2.80 units and a 36% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Georgia State vs Marshall.
Georgia State vs Marshall game info
| Location: | Joan C. Edwards Stadium, Huntington, WV |
| Date: | Thursday, 10-17, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
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