The Edmonton Oilers have dropped three straight to start the regular season, and they’ll look to right the ship against the visiting Philadelphia Flyers on Tuesday, October 15.
Edmonton star defenseman Evan Bouchard has been quiet, and our top Flyers vs. Oilers predictions and NHL picks are expecting the offensive blueliner and his teammates to cash in on their pending statistical correction tonight.
Flyers vs Oilers prediction
My best bet
Evan Bouchard Over 2.5 shots (-125 at BET99)
My analysis
There’s been a downtick in shots from Edmonton Oilers defenseman Evan Bouchard despite an uptick in attempts through the first three games of the season.
The power-play quarterback has only registered four shots on 24 attempts, with his 3.15 shots per 60 minutes trailing way behind last year’s 7.09 mark. Meanwhile, his 18.88 attempts per 60 to start the season are up from his 15.72 in 2023-24.
Bouchard converted 45.8% of his attempts into shots last year, and he’s at an unsustainably low 16.6% mark through three 2024-25 games.
It’s also been a possession clinic at 5-on-5 for the Oil defenseman, with Bouchard posting a dominant 68.4 Corsi For percentage and 66.1% shot share to start the year. For comparison, he posted high-end 60.1% and 60.2% marks last season, so I expect the ice to be tilted in his favor again Tuesday against the Philadelphia Flyers.
The Flyers will be playing their third consecutive road game to start the year, and Philly just gave up 32 shots during its 6-3 loss to the Flames on Saturday. Additionally, Philadelphia sports a middling 49.4 CF% after two contests, while Edmonton paces the league with a 62.5% mark.
There's statistical correction ahead of Bouchard’s shot volume, and I expect the Oilers to drive the 5-on-5 play again to avoid an 0-4 start on Tuesday.
Flyers vs Oilers same-game parlay (SGP)
Oilers -1.5
Evan Bouchard Over 2.5 shots
Evan Bouchard Over 0.5 assists
In addition to the dominant 5-on-5 possession numbers, the Oilers also rank fourth with a 57.3 expected goals percentage and a 30th-ranked 2.4 team shooting percentage.
The goals are coming for the Oil, and there's also likely positive regression ahead of their special-teams numbers. Edmonton has only received five power-play opportunities through the first three games of the year (20.0 PP%), and they’re sporting an unsustainably low 44.4 penalty-kill percentage.
Returning to Bouchard, he’s failed to hit the scoresheet to start the year after posting an elite 82 points — 64 assists — through 81 games last season. He’s a staple on the No. 1 power-play unit, and last season’s 2.06 assists per 60 minutes ranked third among regular defensemen and 22nd overall.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Flyers vs Oilers odds
Flyers vs Oilers live odds
Flyers vs Oilers opening odds
- Puck line: Philadelphia +1.5 (-130) | Edmonton -1.5 (+110)
- Moneyline: Philadelphia +185 | Edmonton -225
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 | Under 6.5
Flyers vs Oilers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There hasn’t been an influx of early action in this game, and I don’t suspect we’ll see betting support for the visiting Flyers, given the highlighted statistical correction ahead for the Oilers.
- In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if there was movement to the Oilers' side of this moneyline, 60-minute market, and puck line.
- BET99 has the Over 6 and Under 6.5 carrying the higher vig, which is consistent with other shops.
- I think we’re going to see a breakout offensive showing from Edmonton, but I’m not convinced their goaltending flips the switch immediately. The Over 6 goals is definitely in play Tuesday.
Flyers vs Oilers trend
Oilers defenseman Evan Bouchard recorded 3+ shots in 25 of his final 42 games last season, including the playoffs. Find more NHL betting trends for Flyers vs. Oilers.
Flyers vs Oilers game info
| Location: | Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB |
| Date: | Tuesday, 10-15-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Flyers vs Oilers latest injuries
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