The Ottawa Senators will welcome the Tampa Bay Lightning to the Canadian Tire Centre tonight for an important Eastern Conference clash.
Tim Stutzle has been creating a lot of opportunities lately, and my Lightning vs Senators predictions anticipate that continuing.
Read more in my NHL picks for Thursday, April 3.
Senators vs Lightning prediction
My Senators pick: Tim Stutzle Over 1.5 SOG (-175 at Pinnacle)
My Senators analysis
Tim Stutzle has been one of the main driving forces behind the Ottawa Senators' impressive season as they remain in the top Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. He leads the team in points with 71, scoring 21 goals and tallying 50 assists.
The 23-year-old is always dangerous in front of the net. He’s averaging 1.91 SOG per game, and while Stutzle has only posted one point in his last five outings, he’s cashed the Over in shots on target in four of his last five appearances.
Stutzle collected four shots on goal in Tuesday’s loss to the Buffalo Sabres, after totaling just seven SOG across the previous four games. Against the Tampa Bay Lightning, he has recorded three shots on net in three appearances during the 2024-25 season.
Tampa is 14th in the NHL in fewest shots allowed, which is respectable. That being said, Stutzle is one of Ottawa’s best players and is capable against any opponent. He’s also averaging 2.08 SOG at home compared to 1.77 on the road.
He’ll muster up some chances tonight in front of the Sens faithful.
Senators vs Lightning odds analysis
The odds opened with the Bolts at -118 and the Sens at -102, but that’s since changed. Tampa has moved up to a -145 favorite, while Ottawa has dropped to +120 at home.
This makes sense considering the Lightning have won four in a row, while the Senators are amid a two-game losing skid. Ottawa is better defensively at home, but they just gave up five goals to an average Sabres team.
As for the total, it has fluctuated between 6.0 and 5.5. There’s value in the Over if it remains at 5.5 ahead of puck drop, because two of the previous three matchups saw a minimum of seven goals combined.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Senators vs Lightning odds
Senators vs Lightning live odds
Senators vs Lightning opening odds
- Puck line: Ottawa +1.5 (+206) | Tampa Bay -1.5 (+206)
- Moneyline: Ottawa -102 | Tampa Bay -118
- Over/Under: Over 6 (-102) | Under 6 (-112)
Odds courtesy of Pinnacle
Senators vs Lightning trend
Tampa Bay has only hit the game total Under in 39 of its last 87 games (-3.30 Units / -4% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs. Lightning.
How to watch Senators vs Lightning
| Location | Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON |
| Date | Thursday, 4-3-2025 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TSN5 |
Senators vs Lightning latest injuries
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