The New York Mets bounced back in a big way in Game 2 of the NLCS, picking up a four-run victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers after being smashed 9-0 in the series opener.
Tonight's Dodgers vs. Mets predictions see the pendulum swinging once again, with Los Angeles’ star bats leading the charge in a better offensive showing.
Let’s take a closer look at my MLB picks for October 16.
Dodgers vs Mets prediction
Who will win Dodgers vs Mets Game 3?
The Dodgers. They have made it this far and it feels like Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani have more to give offensively. They’re too talented to stay quiet for extended periods – each player has gone hitless in two of the last three – and I like their chances of heating up against Luis Severino. Look for the Dodgers offense to lead the charge in Game 3.
My Dodgers vs Mets best bet
Mookie Bets Over 1.5 hits+RBI+runs
-120 at DraftKings
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Mookie Betts has not performed up to expectation during the playoffs but luck — or a lack thereof — has certainly played a part.
Betts owns a .167 batting average on balls put in play, which is the second lowest of any player participating in this series.
He has often made good contact during this playoff run, posting a soft contact rate of just 15%. That’s not far off from his 14.1% soft contact rate in the regular season that was produced while going up against plenty of lesser teams and back-of-the-rotation pitchers.
Betts recorded a .294 batting average on balls in play during the regular season. Based on his contact rates, it stands to reason his playoff numbers should be much closer to that than where they’re at now.
Luis Severino is a solid pitcher but he’s not exactly putting up spotless performances right now. He’s allowed at least five hits and three earned runs in five consecutive starts. Even in wins, he’s giving up damage.
Betts also has a remarkable track record against Severino in his career. Betts owns a .225 ISO, a .323 batting average, and a .422 wOBA against Severino through 37 plate appearances.
He was terrific against right-handed pitchers this season as well, hitting .280 with a .870 SLG%.
Hitting beside on-base machine Shohei Ohtani, and in front of the likes of Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez, just one good swing from Betts can position him to clear this number.
Dodgers vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Mookie Betts Over 1.5 H+R+R
Luis Severino Under 2.5 walks
Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 hits
Severino has walked three batters or more in only one of his past 14 starts. He has really tightened things up after a very erratic beginning to the season in which walks were a big problem.
After an off day in which the bullpen was able to rest, the Mets don’t need to leave Severino to the wolves if he’s having problems with his control.
Shohei Ohtani mashed left-handed pitching this season, posting a remarkable .323 batting average and .463 wOBA. He recorded at least one hit in 73% of his games and enters play averaging 1.8 over his past 20 games.
It’s worth noting Severino struggled against left-handed batters like Ohtani. He allowed a .270 average and .338 wOBA vs. lefties, which were higher than the numbers allowed to right-handed hitters.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Mets odds
Dodgers vs Mets live odds
Dodgers vs Mets opening odds
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -101 | New York -107
- Run line: Los Angeles +1.5 (-215) | New York -1.5 (+190)
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-114) | Under 8.0 (+102)
Dodgers vs Mets moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers closed as moneyline favorites in all eight meetings with the Mets this season, winning five of them.
- Six of the past eight head-to-head matchups went Over.
- The Dodgers were a very profitable team for Over bettors this season, with 93 of 162 games (57.4%) clearing the number.
Dodgers vs Mets trend
Mookie Betts has averaged 2.6 H+R+R over his past 30 road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Mets. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Mets.
Dodgers vs Mets Game 3 info
| Location: | Citi Field, Flushing, NY |
| Date: | Wednesday, 10-16-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Walker Buehler (0-1, 10.80 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Luis Severino (1-0, 4.50 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Mets latest injuries
Dodgers vs Mets weather
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