We've got a juicy Conference USA contest on the cards tonight as the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers travel to Huntsville, Texas to take on the Sam Houston.
My Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston predictions expect the Hilltoppers’ conference title hopes to fall once again, these college football picks siding with the short home favorite before kickoff at 7:00 ET on Wednesday, October 16.
Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston prediction and best bet
My best bet
Sam Houston moneyline (-130 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
A more reckless individual would target Sam Houston at -2.5 (-110 at DraftKings), but more and more often in college football, -1 and -2 are numbers with some import in gambling terms. Coaches are more tuned into analytics like going for two when a 14-point deficit is cut by a touchdown. And, to be frank, mistakes tend to happen in lower-end FBS football on a Wednesday night. Such a mistake could lead to a disjointed 28-27 score.
This moneyline avoids that worry.
But to the broader point of backing the Bearkats, ponder the reality that Western Kentucky is being overvalued a bit thanks to its blowout of UTEP last Thursday. Of the Hilltoppers’ 44 points, 17 of them came courtesy of short fields. While Western Kentucky deserves every ounce of credit for creating those chances, they are still not inherently replicable.
Looking at current SP+ ratings, UTEP has the No. 132 offense in the country. Note, that there are 134 teams at the FBS level, hence the name of the Covers college football podcast, “College Football 134.” Ranking No. 132 is, in a word, bad.
Sam Houston is not leaps and bounds better, but at No. 95, the Bearkats hint at mild competence. They will not give the Hilltoppers so many chances.
Sam Houston should dictate the snap-by-snap terms of this game, better in both offensive and defensive success rate as well as on late downs on both sides of the ball. In fact, that latter stat, the Bearkats rank in the top third of the country in both offensive and defensive success rate on third and fourth down.
Anyone backing Western Kentucky here is doing so based almost entirely on a big-play dependence, but the Hilltoppers do not produce those at the rate assumed given their playing style. Ranking No. 71 in dropback success rate but No. 79 in expected points added (EPA) per dropback, per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com, quickly implies Western Kentucky finds explosive plays at a lesser rate than the average team, something that will be costly against a defense keyed into bothering a passing game on a snap-by-snap basis.
Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston same-game parlay (SGP)
Sam Houston moneyline
Under 55.5
Jay Ducker anytime touchdown
Taking the Under 55.5 absolutely correlates with the Sam Houston moneyline. If Western Kentucky is unable to produce explosive plays, its offense should stall. That should push us toward this Under.
Some thought was put into instead taking a Western Kentucky Team Total Under 24.5, but that disproportionately lowered this same-game parlay’s payout.
Adding a touchdown from Bearkats running back Jay Ducker is entirely based on him scoring five times in the last three games, highlighted by three scores in what was arguably Sam Houston's biggest game of the season thus far, vs. Texas State, two weeks ago. If that is what is asked of Ducker when the moment matters, then something similar may be expected in a game that could elevate the Bearkats to a genuine Conference USA contender.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston odds
Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston live odds
Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston opening odds
- Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston spread: Sam Houston -2.5
- Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston moneyline: Western Kentucky +125, Sam Houston -150
- Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Over/Under: 55.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston spread and Over/Under analysis
- The earliest legitimate lines of the week opened with Sam Houston a 2-point favorite, a number that quickly climbed to -2.5 and flirted with -3 on Sunday and Monday before settling at -2.5 on Tuesday afternoon.
- Both Western Kentucky and Sam Houston are 5-1 against the spread this season, each of their ATS losses coming against a Power Four opponent.
- The total opened at 54.5 on Sunday and quickly jumped to 55 at most books, with some opening at 55.5. It climbed to 56 across most of the board on Tuesday.
Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston betting trend to know
In its last nine games, Sam Houston has gone 9-1 against the spread, including a 28-23 loss at Western Kentucky last November, the Bearkats then 10-point underdogs. Find more college football betting trends for Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston.
Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston game info
| Location: | Elliott T. Bowers Stadium, Huntsville, TX |
| Date: | Wednesday, 10-16-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
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