The Wisconsin Badgers and Northwestern Wildcats meet on Saturday, with both teams hot off upset wins.
While neither program looks overly impressive on offense this season, my Wisconsin vs. Northwestern predictions and college football picks expect David Braun’s team to cover the spread in this October 19 tilt.
Wisconsin vs Northwestern prediction and best bet
My best bet
Northwestern +7 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
After an ugly 0-3 start against Power 4 opponents, Northwestern managed to beat Maryland 37-10 on the road as a 10.5-point underdog.
Now the Wildcats return home to their makeshift stadium with a chance to have a winning record. While I’m not confident enough to take the Northwestern moneyline (+225), I do think Braun’s squad has enough to lose this one by less than a touchdown.
Wisconsin is no longer a Big Ten power, and it’s pretty clear this offense has been lackluster under Phil Longo. The Badgers employing an air raid attack should have the fans in Madison questioning Luke Fickell’s understanding of Badger football.
It’s been an especially poor look with how inconsistent Wisconsin has been on offense. While Fickell did lose starting QB Tyler Van Dyke to a season-ending injury, that’s no excuse for the Badgers being outside the Top 60 in both EPA per rush and EPA per dropback.
With the inconsistent play of starting QB Braedyn Locke, Wisconsin will struggle to put up enough points to cover against a Wildcats' D ranked 22nd in the country in SP+ and 27th in points allowed per game (19.0).
Even with running back Tawee Walker coming off a breakout game for Wisconsin, running against the Wildcats is a totally different proposition than running against Rutgers. Braun’s defense allows the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game in the country (87.5).
Obviously, Northwestern is going to need to score at least a few points to cover, but starting QB Jack Lausch has improved with each game since taking over for Mike Wright. After being credited with just one big-time throw in his first three outings, he hit two last week with zero turnover-worthy plays, per PFF.
Lausch, AJ Henning, Bryce Kirtz, and Cam Porter can put up at least three scores on a defense ranked outside the Top 80 in both EPA per rush and EPA per dropback.
I expect Wisconsin to win 24-20.
Wisconsin vs Northwestern same-game parlay (SGP)
Northwestern +7.5
Bryce Kirtz Over 44.5 receiving yards
Braedyn Locke Over 199.5 passing yards
The combo of Kirtz’s big-play ability alongside Henning has made Northwestern’s passing attack a far more difficult matchup for opposing defenses in recent weeks. After a slow start to the season, the redshirt senior has been the go-to playmaker in this offense.
Over the last two games, he’s caught 13 passes for 251 yards while averaging over three yards per route run in both games. He’ll be a challenging cover for a Wisconsin defense with three starting cornerbacks allowing an NFL QB rating higher than 100.0.
That’s part of the reason why Wisconsin won’t be able to just pull away, which means more throwing for the already pass-happy Badgers. Locke is averaging 299.5 passing yards over the last two games and with Northwestern’s run defense being dominant, the offense will likely rely on him enough to go Over 199.5.
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Wisconsin vs Northwestern odds
Wisconsin vs Northwestern live odds
Wisconsin vs Northwestern opening odds
- Wisconsin vs. Northwestern spread: Northwestern +7
- Wisconsin vs. Northwestern moneyline: Wisconsin -250, Northwestern +210
- Wisconsin vs. Northwestern Over/Under: 40.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Wisconsin vs Northwestern spread and Over/Under analysis
- Wisconsin opened as a 7-point favorite, with most books offering the Badgers between -7 and -7.5.
- Both Wisconsin and Northwestern are 2-4 ATS this season, and both won outright last week as underdogs.
- The Over/Under opened as high as 41.5 and hasn’t seen much movement, with most books sitting between 41 and 41.5.
- The Badgers are 4-2 betting the Over this season, while the Wildcats are 3-3.
Wisconsin vs Northwestern betting trend to know
Northwestern has covered the spread in nine of its last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Wisconsin vs Northwestern.
Wisconsin vs Northwestern game info
| Location: | Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium, Evanston, IL |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-19-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BTN |
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