The Oregon Ducks’ march to the Big Ten title game should continue this weekend with a one-sided victory against the Michigan Wolverines. The defending national champions were always expected to take a step back this season, but it has been far more drastic than anticipated. This will be another folly on the way to a .500 season.
My Oregon vs. Michigan predictions will entirely back the Ducks, arguably the best team in the Big Ten, as these free college football picks ponder a frustrating spread before a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff at Michigan Stadium on Saturday, November 2.
Oregon vs Michigan prediction and best bet
My best bet
Oregon -14.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Offensively, the Michigan Wolverines don't do anything well. Even when it comes to the ground game, the Wolverines don't do well enough to justify how often they run.
Michigan rushes 8.0% more often than the average team in a given game state, per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com. Yet, the Wolverines rank No. 29 in the country in rushing success rate and No. 33 in expected points added (EPA) per rush. To lean on the run so often but not have a genuinely strong run game is a failing strategy.
Let’s put that in simpler terms: Michigan ranks No. 61 in the country at 4.67 yards per rush. Middling teams do not usually defer to their middling trait so often.
That speaks to how atrocious the passing half of the Wolverines offense is.
The Oregon Ducks are usually defined by their offense, but their defense is a Top-20 unit by any metric, holding up particularly well against explosive rushes. Without those, Michigan may struggle to score much at all. There is a reason the Wolverines rank No. 126 in the country in quality possession rate at 29.8%. Depending on successful run after successful run after successful run fails when just one attempt falls short.
The Ducks offense has yet to scuffle this season, at least against FBS competition. Against the best defenses it has faced — Ohio State, ranking No. 1 in current SP+ numbers, Illinois (No. 42), and Michigan State (No. 33) — Oregon has averaged 33.67 points. Michigan’s No. 10-rated defense should not stop the Ducks enough to cost this cover.
Especially not with Wolverines cornerback Will Johnson possibly sidelined or, at best, not 100%. Oregon’s fleet of receivers may miss out on the type of challenge competitors embrace, but they should be able to run more freely, which is a worthwhile consolation prize.
Michigan’s defense is still stout, but not stout enough to make up for this debacle of a Wolverines offense, and against one of the five best teams in the country, that defense will keep the score close for only so long.
Oregon vs Michigan same-game parlay (SGP)
Oregon -14.5
Michigan Team Total Under 13.5
Dillon Gabriel anytime touchdown
The more traditional team total number would be Under 14.5, widely available but with some juice on the Under. Look specifically at Michigan, though. The Wolverines turn less than a third of their drives into quality possessions. If they fail to convert one into a touchdown — scoring a modest 3.92 points per quality possession — then it would take three worthwhile drives to crack even this team total.
The alternative team total crossing a key number might seem an aggressive choice, but it provides underrated value.
As for Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel reaching the end zone, he has done so in five of eight games. The three exceptions: The season-opening snoozer against FCS-level Idaho, the cruise-control victory at UCLA, and the Friday-night laugher at Purdue. When competition is at least meager, Gabriel often shoulders some of the offensive scoring workload.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Oregon vs Michigan odds
Oregon vs Michigan live odds
Oregon vs Michigan opening odds
- Oregon vs. Michigan spread: Michigan +14.5
- Oregon vs. Michigan moneyline: Oregon -750, Michigan +525
- Oregon vs. Michigan Over/Under: 45.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Oregon vs Michigan spread and Over/Under analysis
- Oregon spent the summer as a mere 3- or 3-point favorite, a number that some sportsbooks pushed to -4 in mid-June.
- When this market genuinely reopened on Sunday, the Ducks were posted as 15-point favorites before falling to -14.5. As the week has progressed, the board has seen book-by-book tick upward to -15 again, some reaching -15.5.
- The few books to post a summertime total posted this a full touchdown higher than where it reopened on Sunday: 52.5 in June compared to 45.5 now.
- Both that spread move and total adjustment emphasize how bad Michigan’s offense has been this season.
Oregon vs Michigan betting trend to know
Michigan is 2-6 against the spread this season, falling short of oddsmakers’ expectations by an average of 6.1 points even when including the pair of ATS successes. Find more college football betting trends for Oregon vs Michigan.
Oregon vs Michigan game info
| Location: | Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-2, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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