San Diego State vs Boise State Player Props & Best Bets: Let's Get Lauter!

Prop bet #1: Matt Lauter 40+ receiving yards

-115 at DraftKings

Some important injury news to follow in this matchup is that the Boise State Broncos’ leading receiver, Cam Camper, injured his knee against Hawai’i and struggled through it last week against UNLV when he recorded just 17 snaps in his team’s biggest game of the season. 

It wouldn’t be a huge shock if he doesn’t suit up this week, but it would be a surprise if he plays and is close to 100%. That opens up opportunities for teammates to step up and fill the void of the Indiana transfer. 

Tight end Matt Lauter answered the call against the Rebels, seeing nine targets and catching four of them for 38 yards and a touchdown. No wide receiver had more than three targets, so it’s evident that Lauter is locked into an important pass-catching role, especially while Camper is hobbled. 

He’s been a revelation season, ranking second on the team in targets (33), receptions (24), and receiving yards (291) while tying for the team lead in receiving touchdowns (4). 

The San Diego State Aztecs haven’t faced many good tight ends this year, but they have been beaten by two recognizable ones that they’ve faced. Wyoming’s John Michael Gyllenborg had four receptions for 48 yards, while Cal’s Corey Dyches had an identical stat line with four catches for 48 yards.

It seems clear now that Lauter is headed for a night where he has exactly four catches for 48 yards, which would be enough to clear his receiving yardage prop. Jokes aside, Lauter is in a good buy spot due to the increased volume with Camper at less than 100%.

Prop bet #2: Ja'Shaun Poke Over 37.5 receiving yards

-114 at FanDuel

San Diego State head coach Sean Lewis typically coaches up an offensive scheme where the WR1 has a monster statistical season. 

That was the case at Kent State where players like Devontez Walker, Dante Cephas, and Isaiah McKoy went wild. The same could be said of Syracuse (Steve Ishmael, Amba Etta-Tawo) and Bowling Green (Roger Lewis, Gehrig Dieter). 

Things haven’t worked out quite as planned in that regard at SDSU, but it’s understandable as the Aztecs are in Year One of what was supposed to be a rebuild. They have a true freshman at quarterback in Danny O’Neil and have struggled to move the ball for much of the year, but that’s beginning to change as they’ve averaged at least 5.4 yards per play in three of their last four games. 

The passing attack has steadily improved and they’ve now thrown for at least 224 yards and one touchdown in four straight contests. Boise State is not a lockdown defense (66th in EPA per play, 104th in passing explosiveness), so the Aztecs will look to keep improving. 

Ja’Shaun Poke may not be a typical Sean Lewis WR1, but he has been productive lately. The two-time transfer has emerged as a go-to weapon over the last two games, leading the team in targets (21), receptions (18), and receiving yards (140). 

No other Aztec has more than 10 targets in that span, so Poke is officially your Sean Lewis WR1 until given further notice. The books have not priced this into their projections as the speedster’s receiving yardage prop can be had for as low as 37.5. 

You already know what I’m doing — I’m playing that Over!

Prop bet #3: Danny O'Neil Over 176.5 passing yards

-114 at FanDuel

There’s a steal of a price to be had on SDSU quarterback Danny O’Neil’s passing yardage prop, which is set down at 176.5 for Friday night. Call it Black Friday. 

O’Neil has surpassed this number in four straight games and in five of his last six. Sign me up for the Over. 

The true freshman was committed to playing for Sean Lewis when he was the offensive coordinator at Colorado. Lewis was able to flip him to play for the Aztecs, where he was immediately one of the top recruits in the Mountain West for his cycle. 

It’s been an up-and-down start for the Indianapolis native, so I understand the pessimism in the player prop market — but this is too much. He’s averaging 229.8 passing yards across his last four games and is projected to be playing from behind as a 23.5-point underdog, which would naturally lead to an uptick in passing volume. 

The Broncos have allowed at least 179 passing yards to every FBS opponent they’ve faced. The low during that span came last week against UNLV when the Rebels attempted just 22 passes compared to 36 rush attempts. Boise’s previous low in passing yards allowed was 243 against Oregon when the Ducks attempted just 21 passes but completed 18 of them. 

O’Neil isn’t perfect, but he has earned a PFF passing grade of at least 74.1 in three of his last four games. He was one of the highest-graded (86.6) quarterbacks in the nation in Week 7 when he torched Wyoming in Laramie, and his arrow appears to be pointed upward.