As of now, the San Jose State Spartans heading north to face the Washington State Cougars is not a future Pac-12 preview. If the Cougars play to their ability, the reason why this is not a Pac-12 preview will be quite clear.
That doubt in the Spartans will lead these college football picks, with my San Jose State vs. Washington State predictions leaning on the home team to cover the spread on Friday, September 20.
San Jose State vs Washington State prediction
My best bet
Washington State -11.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Since when is beating Kennesaw State worth more than a 1.5-point bump in power rankings? All due respect to the Owls, moving up to the FBS warrants that acknowledgement, but they are one of the absolute worst teams in the top tier of college football.
The Owls lack depth, particularly defensively, and their offensive line is still trying to figure out how to transition to a zone-read designed offense from a triple-option approach. Frankly, that half measure was always doomed to fail.
The San Jose State Spartans beat Kennesaw State 31-10 last week. The final touchdown came with just three minutes left on a short field. Let’s ignore that for predictive measures. The penultimate touchdown came on a short field via an explosive pass. That should also be somewhat discounted against quality competition.
Yet, that win raised the Spartans’ SP+ rating by 1.7 points.
At the same time, the Washington State Cougars upsetting Washington knocked their rating down by 0.1 points. There is some logic to that, with the net success rate aligning more closely to a field-goal loss than a five-point win, roughly speaking. A couple of explosive rushes to turn quality possessions into touchdowns while the Huskies struggled in that exact regard provided the difference.
But those items are replicable, and they do not need to simply face the worst team not named Kent State to be replicated. Washington State has held opponents to just 2.09 points per quality drive this season, No. 15 in the country. And the Cougars generate explosive runs often enough to enjoy the No. 36 rushing attack in terms of expected points added (EPA) per rush despite succeeding only 38.2% of rush attempts — No. 78 in the country, per cfb-graphs via collegefootballinsiders.com.
Looking at the defensive version of those rushing splits, Washington State also limits explosive runs against.
To sum all that up, this spread moved in some part because San Jose State ran up the score on Kennesaw State via the exact means that Washington State should stymie, all while the Cougars’ greatest strength should be a Spartans’ concern.
The hook and the juice are less than ideal, but they do not worry enough to prevent this best bet on the distinctly better team.
San Jose State vs Washington State same-game parlay (SGP)
Washington State -11.5
San Jose State team total Under 21.5
John Mateer anytime TD
San Jose State has relied on a middling passing game and explosive runs to put up points this season. Still, the Spartans regularly fail where it matters most, scoring just 2.44 points per quality possession — No. 104 in the country. Worse yet, San Jose State enjoys a quality possession on only 21.4% of its drives. When your only two FBS games have come against Air Force and Kennesaw State, those kinds of rates are all too telling.
Washington State prevents most any explosive play while shutting opponents down where it matters most with that 2.09 points per quality possession this season. There is little reason to think the Spartans will score with any reliability.
On the other side of the ball, Cougars’ quarterback John Mateer has four rushing touchdowns this season, including three in two games against Power Four competition. If Washington State finds itself inside the 10-yard line multiple times, there is reason to think Mateer will get multiple shots at scoring.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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San Jose State vs Washington State odds
San Jose State vs Washington State live odds
San Jose State vs Washington State opening odds
- Spread: San Jose State +14.5 | Washington State -14.5
- Moneyline: San Jose State +425 | Washington State -600
- Over/Under: Over 55.5 | Under 55.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
San Jose State vs Washington State spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread opened at Circa Sports with Washington State reasonably favored by 13 points. When it hit the broader market, it spiked to -14.5 before falling to -13.5 on Monday and then -11.5 on Tuesday. Do not read into that too much as doubt in the Cougars. It more represents appropriate buyback after too much faith was put into that win against Washington.
- The total also saw some wild movement, opening at 52.5 and climbing to 55.5 when it hit the broader market. By Tuesday, it peaked at 58.5 only to settle at 55.5.
- That total rising while the spread fell is likely an argument for explosive plays in this game in general.
San Jose State vs Washington State betting trend to know
Both these teams are 3-0 against the spread this season as well as 3-0 outright. Find more college football betting trends for San Jose State vs Washington State.
San Jose State vs Washington State game info
| Location: | Gesa Field, Pullman, WA |
| Date: | Friday, 9-20-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | The CW Network |
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