Few college football rivalries have been more thrilling in recent memory than the Red River Rivalry between the Texas Longhorns and the Oklahoma City Sooners.
While this matchup has mostly been known for exciting shootouts and high scores, look elsewhere than these Texas vs. Oklahoma predictions if you're expecting a repeat.
Check out why my college football picks like this awaited clash will at least start slowly on Saturday, Oct. 12.
For more on the Red River Rivalry, be sure to check out Douglas Farmer's Texas vs. Oklahoma player props!
Texas vs Oklahoma prediction and best bet
Who will win Texas vs Oklahoma?
Crazy things can happen in the Red River Rivalry and while Oklahoma has a defense that can add to that chaos, Texas is too good from top to bottom. The Longhorns' edge in the trenches will be the difference in the end and keep them undefeated when all is said and done.
My best bet
Under 26.5 First Half Total (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The Red River Rivalry is always filled with intrigue, but that feels even greater in the 2024 edition.
Texas is the No. 1 ranked team in the country. Oklahoma is 4-1 but has moved away from Jackson Arnold at quarterback. Quinn Ewers is expected to make his first start since taking on Michigan back on Sept. 7. Oh, and this is the first Red River Showdown as part of the SEC.
At 5-0 with an impressive beatdown of Michigan at the Big House, the Longhorns are in the conversation for the best team in the nation. They enter this game ranked fourth in offensive success rate and 12th in defensive success rate. But it’s more than that.
Texas was able to withstand the Ewers injury in part because it boasts one of the better backups in college football in Arch Manning. But mostly it’s because Manning got to play behind arguably the best offensive line in the country.
The Longhorns defense has also been very impressive. It would not have been shocking if this group took a little step back this season after losing Byron Murphy III and Te’Vondre Sweat but that hasn’t been the case at all. The Texas defense might be even better and it's going to be a problem for this Oklahoma offense.
The Sooners enter this game at 4-1 and bounced back from their loss to Tennessee with a win at Auburn. But there are two things you need to take away from that win. The offense did not look much better with Michael Hawkins Jr., and they needed the defense to bail them out once again with a clutch pick-six.
Oklahoma enters this game ranked 127th in offensive success rate and generated just 291 yards of total offense against the Tigers last week. Good luck against this Texas defense.
But the Longhorns won’t have the only great defense in this game, as Oklahoma looks very much like those impressive Brent Venables units we saw at Clemson all those years. The Sooners defense ranks 11th in EPA/play, and 34th in success rate.
Also, remember that Venables did a great job of limiting Ewers in last year’s meeting, which the Sooners won 34-30.
Steve Sarkisian also knows this and particularly with this being Ewers' first game action in over a month, expect the Longhorns to lean on their world-class offensive line early and run the ball. While the Texas defense should make things hard on Hawkins. So, I can see this being a lower-scoring version of this matchup.
That said, this is the Red River Rivalry, where crazy things happen all the time. So, I’m keeping my Under to the first half, where these rivals should feel each other out before potentially opening things up in the second.
Texas vs Oklahoma same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 26.5 first half
Jaydon Blue 20+ receiving yards
Matthew Golden anytime touchdown
This follows the thinking of my best bet. While I think Steve Sarkisian will ease Ewers back into game action by relying on his elite offensive line and running game he can also mitigate Oklahoma pressure by quick dump-offs to the running backs, specifically Jaydon Blue.
The junior back was targeted 12 times, catching nine of those targets for 74 yards in the Longhorns' first two games of the season, when Ewers was under center, including six catches for 37 yards against another elite defense in Michigan.
Another Longhorns player happy to have Ewers back is receiver Matthew Golden. He has three touchdowns on the season, all with Ewers as his quarterback. Even though Oklahoma’s defense is solid, they rank 90th in defensive success rate on dropbacks. If Ewers is patient early in this one, things should open up for him through the air as the game goes on.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Texas vs Oklahoma odds
Texas vs Oklahoma live odds
Texas vs Oklahoma opening odds
- Texas vs. Oklahoma spread: Oklahoma +15
- Texas vs. Oklahoma moneyline: Texas -310, Oklahoma +250
- Texas vs. Oklahoma Over/Under: 51.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Texas vs Oklahoma spread and Over/Under analysis
- Oklahoma opened the Red River Rivalry as 15-point underdogs with the game being played at the neutral site Cotton Bowl. Early bettors have seen some value with the dog in this rivalry game with the Sooners now at +14.
- Oklahoma has dominated this rivalry in recent years, winning seven of the last nine meetings, including last season as 4-point pups. However, the spread results have been split, with Texas covering five of those nine meetings.
- The total hit the board at 51.5 and the early action has been on the Under, moving the number down to 50.5.
- This move makes me feel good about the first-half Under, and while I'm not on the full-game Under, due to the potential chaos of this rivalry game, I'd lean that way at the current number.
Texas vs Oklahoma betting trend to know
Texas has covered the Spread in 8 of their last 12 games dating back to last season for +4.60 Units and a 34% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Texas vs Oklahoma.
Texas vs Oklahoma game info
| Location: | Cotton Bowl, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-12, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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