The Colorado Buffaloes’ path to the College Football Playoff is clear: Win and in. This weekend’s matchup with the Utah Utes may not be the most worrying game remaining for the Buffaloes, but it may be the one with the most obvious potential for comedy.
After the Utes’ absolutely lost season, upsetting the biggest story in the Big 12 would be at least a piece of redemption. But my Utah vs. Colorado predictions will not bet on that, instead, these free college football picks find a game flow somewhere between comedy and reality. Kickoff comes at 12 ET on Saturday, November 16.
Utah vs Colorado prediction and best bet
My best bet
Colorado moneyline and Under 48.5 (+105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Usually, taking this “Win/Total” combination market is an approach only necessary because BetMGM refuses to offer team totals, but in this instance, it may simply be the right path on its own.
Utah’s defense has never been the problem, still ranking No. 38 in expected points added (EPA) per defensive snap, according to cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com, and No. 9 in the current SP+ ratings. Its strength comes up front, the Utes’ defensive line consistently creating pressure and disrupting opposing passing games, ranking No. 7 in defensive success rate against dropbacks.
This is a perfect recipe to face Colorado until it isn’t.
The Buffaloes love to pass, doing so 9.5% more often than the average team would in a given game state, the third-highest rate in the country. That is in no small part because Colorado’s offensive line is wretched in run blocking.
Utah is going to be able to create pressure. It will harass the Buffaloes’ star quarterback Shedeur Sanders.
And at some point, Sanders is going to get his.
The Utes’ defense ranks just No. 36 in EPA per dropback against. Consider that success rate/EPA split. Ranking No. 7 in success rate but considerably lower in EPA indicates when Utah fails against the pass, it fails in a big way.
There are few offenses with more big-play capability than one with Sanders and Heisman frontrunner Travis Hunter. They will, at some point, connect.
And that should be enough to doom Utah’s atrocious offense, now turning back to quarterback Isaac Wilson after Brandon Rose’s foot injury, and also now without star tight end Brant Kuithe. The Utes have no offense to speak of. Taking Colorado to win plus this inflated Under creates more value than simply taking the Under 45.5, and with little added risk given, really, Utah has no offense to speak of.
Utah vs Colorado same-game parlay (SGP)
Colorado moneyline
Under 48.5 points
Travis Hunter anytime touchdown
Adding a Travis Hunter anytime touchdown should not nearly triple this same-game parlay’s payout, so that value is appreciated. The star two-way player has admittedly caught touchdowns in only four of eight games against FBS competition, but that includes the last two, right when Colorado finally and firmly rounded into a form to note.
Furthermore, you better believe Deion Sanders knows Hunter is now the Heisman frontrunner, even odds-on at -115 at FanDuel. Getting Hunter another couple of touchdowns this season likely will be Sanders’s imperative, aligning with his entire headline-driven approach in Boulder.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Utah vs Colorado odds
Utah vs Colorado live odds
Utah vs Colorado opening odds
- Utah vs. Colorado spread: Colorado -9.5
- Utah vs. Colorado moneyline: Utah +280, Colorado -350
- Utah vs. Colorado Over/Under: 47.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Utah vs Colorado spread and Over/Under analysis
- Given Colorado’s residency in the headlines and Utah’s preseason status as Big 12 frontrunner, sportsbooks posted lookahead lines for this game in the summer, favoring Utah by 8.5 points.
- For many obvious reasons, that number no longer existed when the market more genuinely opened on Sunday, Colorado was then initially a 9-point favorite before quickly ticking up to -10 on Sunday.
- When Rose was ruled out for the season, the spread climbed even higher, reaching -11.5 on Tuesday evening at most books.
- The total opened at 46.5 on Sunday and wasted no time reaching 47.5 before the Rose news doomed it back down to 45.5, failing to cross that key number.
Utah vs Colorado betting trend to know
Before Brandon Rose took over as Utah’s primary quarterback last week, a stretch that lasted just that one Saturday due to a Lisfranc injury, the Utes had gone 0-4 against the spread in their previous four games with the total hitting the Under in three of them, the fourth a push. Find more college football betting trends for Utah vs Colorado.
Utah vs Colorado game info
| Location: | Folsom Field, Boulder, CO |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-16, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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